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The Masked Tulip

Britains Population Growth And Ageing Demographics Impact On Uk House Prices

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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22616.html

Population Growth and Demographics, Housing Supply Conclusions for UK House Prices

This analysis concludes towards three competing forces driving UK house price trends - an increasing population that generates ever increasing demand for housing that supply has never been able to keep pace with, several millions who have permanently sat on benefits being forced into the workforce and thus increase demand for housing, against an ageing population that looks set to put downward pressure on the housing market for several decades as many elderly seek to downsize into retirement homes and probably soon to be built retirement villages, the overall implications are for long-term real terms price stagnation as ever more resources will continue to be expended on servicing the demands of an ageing population, whilst high inflation acts to drive up prices in nominal terms. This does not mean there will not be future booms in house prices, just that it is highly likely that they will be more subdued in real terms than that which has occurred during the past 10 years as there will be increasing supply overhanging the market ready to sell at higher prices.

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uk-house-prices-july-10.gif

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UK population is already over 80 million.

I know its not cool around these parts to say theres a shortage (due to hundreds of thousands of vacant homes) but still...

Almost every single male i know under 30, many under 35 either house share with friends or still live with parents.

Even here in a small town, if i go for a walk at night, i often see people (eastern europeans i assume) sitting and smoking in garage blocks, you can see the bunks they sleep on.

We need more houses or less people.

Im not saying this need have any effect on house prices, being as they are as driven by credit, but from a social point of view, it seems pretty clear. If land prices were reasonable it might even create some jobs.

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A chess board has 64 spaces.

Now draw channels so you cannot move into 75% of the spaces.

Now try to play chess.

spaceChess.jpg

This is the UK.

Forget houses for a minute. Simple question-where is the money going to come from to support this poulation in terms of infrastructure, health care, schools, police, firemen etc. Plus the industry (that is wealth producers, anybody remember them?) to support this rabble. If the population trends are correct then the UK MUST become a third world country, albeit with the landed gentry still being in place and some very nice old architecture that foreign visitors can come and gawp at.

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im a big fan of walayat (despite often having very different views, hes a good analyst), his forecasts have about as good a record as they come i think but i disagree with this forward projection aswell, i think the UK will see net emigration over the next decade due to poverty and poor return on capital, i think the popn has grown in line with the returns on capital and perceived wealth via the 30 year banking bubble, as i think this is in the process of collapsing and evaporating most of that wealth i assume popn will go the same way, may well be wrong though

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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UK population is already over 80 million.

I know its not cool around these parts to say theres a shortage (due to hundreds of thousands of vacant homes) but still...

Almost every single male i know under 30, many under 35 either house share with friends or still live with parents.

Even here in a small town, if i go for a walk at night, i often see people (eastern europeans i assume) sitting and smoking in garage blocks, you can see the bunks they sleep on.

We need more houses or less people.

Im not saying this need have any effect on house prices, being as they are as driven by credit, but from a social point of view, it seems pretty clear. If land prices were reasonable it might even create some jobs.

and then think about all the over 50s couples living in 4 bed houses with all that empty space to spare...

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Forget houses for a minute. Simple question-where is the money going to come from to support this poulation in terms of infrastructure, health care, schools, police, firemen etc. Plus the industry (that is wealth producers, anybody remember them?) to support this rabble. If the population trends are correct then the UK MUST become a third world country, albeit with the landed gentry still being in place and some very nice old architecture that foreign visitors can come and gawp at.

Well obviously, most of this population surge is from third world immigrants. They arent going to become first world just by living or being born here are they?

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Well obviously, most of this population surge is from third world immigrants. They arent going to become first world just by living or being born here are they?

Love this comment. Why answer a well reasoned argument with thought or logic when you can resort to ignorant and distasteful racism.

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Well obviously, most of this population surge is from third world immigrants.

Net immigration is part of it, but not the whole story by any means. Over the past few years Britain's been experiencing a mini baby boom and that's forecast to continue. Sure some of those babies are to immigrants, but they've got "made in Britain" stamped on them every bit as firmly as John Bull has.

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im a big fan of walayat (despite often having very different views, hes a good analyst), his forecasts have about as good a record as they come i think but i disagree with this forward projection aswell, i think the UK will see net emigration over the next decade due to poverty and poor return on capital, i think the popn has grown in line with the returns on capital and perceived wealth via the 30 year banking bubble, as i think this is in the process of collapsing and evaporating most of that wealth i assume popn will go the same way, may well be wrong though

I'm not aware of any serious forecast that predicts either a falling population or net migration from Britain. The population increases in this article are actually at the lower end of the forecast range. In addition there are other forecasts that layer global warming on top, and these generally see much greater immigration, chiefly from Europe's southern and eastern fringes. Because Britain sits in the "Atlantic shadow" it's likely to only experience modest temperature rises compared to most of the rest of the world, which will make Britain an increasingly attractive destination. Some pundits are forecasting 100m by 2050.

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and then think about all the over 50s couples living in 4 bed houses with all that empty space to spare...

Empty space?

They have huge collections of Swarovski crystal mice to house! :huh:

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In terms of the trend for the next 10 years, the implications are for a real terms stagnating market for the next 2-3 years, followed by weak real-terms growth, with nominal house prices supported by the governments inflationary policies in an attempt to mask the true economic impact of an ageing population through the illusion of increasing wages whilst real purchasing power falls, which again reaffirms the importance of inflation forecasts being accurate as that will be the primary driver for nominal house prices for the next 25 years as covered at length in the Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook

A shame he didn't comment on how beneficial to ALL the UK problems generally affordable house prices would be if they were ever allowed to get there with far less need for all the unpopular and ultimately horrendous and barmy policies being currently followed which he mentions such as the huge forced increase in population and eventually no retirement etc etc.

Keeping another 20% people warm in the UK for 5 - 6 months of the year over winter is going to a really nightmarish problem at a time of claimed peak oil. That's quite apart from the energy costs associated with the extra people travelling to work, keeping them in work and actually working.

Edited by billybong

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Love this comment. Why answer a well reasoned argument with thought or logic when you can resort to ignorant and distasteful racism.

Why is it racism?

We import millions from cultures often totally alien to our own often without so much as an english test and expect them to integrate overnight. Its not necessarily their fault, its the screwed up system that allows it to happen.

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Well obviously, most of this population surge is from third world immigrants. They arent going to become first world just by living or being born here are they?

Why? The ones I know that were bron here (from India/Pakistan) are by and large successful.

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Why is it racism?

We import millions from cultures often totally alien to our own often without so much as an english test and expect them to integrate overnight. Its not necessarily their fault, its the screwed up system that allows it to happen.

Because its an unreasoning and ignorant assertion that implies that all immigrants are "third world" and will never integrate, which

is obviously not true...I'm not a believer in uncontrolled immigration myself but resorting to National Front type statements doen't achieve

anything and simply confirms the poster (Johhny Storm, not you) as being ignorant and narrow minded as well as factually incorrect.

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I'm not aware of any serious forecast that predicts either a falling population or net migration from Britain. The population increases in this article are actually at the lower end of the forecast range. In addition there are other forecasts that layer global warming on top, and these generally see much greater immigration, chiefly from Europe's southern and eastern fringes. Because Britain sits in the "Atlantic shadow" it's likely to only experience modest temperature rises compared to most of the rest of the world, which will make Britain an increasingly attractive destination. Some pundits are forecasting 100m by 2050.

I'm sorry but can you provide links?

I say this as, although I disgaree with much that TDL says, she does back it up

this is all sloppy heresay from you I'm afraid

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Of course there are thousands of destitute rolling around towns and cities across the UK, there is nowhere to build and the fact that the two fuels for HPI (rampant public sector growth founded on the never never and imaginery credit that never existed) have gone mean far more than Nadeem's obsession with graphs. Japan anyone?

And it is bull those that think the baby boom means the intensification of the battle for middle england housing, nope those (us) poor feckers are too busy working and paying taxes. Those that are having children are not in a position to pay for or change the demand for the majority of UK housing stock. The demand argument is crap and i am surpirsed to see it taken so seriously on these pages.

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Because its an unreasoning and ignorant assertion that implies that all immigrants are "third world" and will never integrate, which

is obviously not true...I'm not a believer in uncontrolled immigration myself but resorting to National Front type statements doen't achieve

anything and simply confirms the poster (Johhny Storm, not you) as being ignorant and narrow minded as well as factually incorrect.

Tell this to Jimmy Mizen's family.

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Net immigration is part of it, but not the whole story by any means. Over the past few years Britain's been experiencing a mini baby boom and that's forecast to continue. Sure some of those babies are to immigrants

More than "some", 25% actually.

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More than "some", 25% actually.

So to put it into perspective, that is 1 in 4 for a ratio of less than 1 in 10 of the population...

I suppose similar figures might apply to taxpayers and non-taxpayers. Single motherhood used to be an accident, looked down upon, now it is a lifestyle choice rewarded by the state - which demographic is having more children?

It will end in tears.

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Net immigration is part of it, but not the whole story by any means. Over the past few years Britain's been experiencing a mini baby boom and that's forecast to continue. Sure some of those babies are to immigrants, but they've got "made in Britain" stamped on them every bit as firmly as John Bull has.

The baby boom still leaves us with a birth rate below replacement level. 25% of babies are born to immigrants, (1st, 2nd gen immigrants aren't counted). Immigrants, 1st gen and 2 gen only make up 12% of population.

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I saw one projection showing Britain's population going to 100 million by 2050. I think that is high, it appears we are growing by 400k-500k a year, which would take us over 80 million by 2050.

It will be decided by politics. The number of immigrants the powers that be decide to let in.. and how many of those immigrants are young, fertile women. Each one of those women will probably average 3 children, and over a 40 year span those children themselves will have children.

There is basically unlimited supply of people from the developing world who want to move here. If they increased the number of immigrants allowed annually from the current 500k to even 2 million.. they would easily find people willing to take the offer.

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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