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Interest Rates This Week

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So, what are the predictions for Interest rates this week?

Seems that every time the bank of england is due to make its decision, there are LOADS of stories in the paper about how bad it is in retail etc.

Probably remain as they are? Can't see them doing anything contraversial after the divide last month- be very surprised if they were cut again.

Any opinions?

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Guest Guy_Montag

4 raise (with Mervyn, making their point that Brown's men got it wrong)

5 hold (the ones that voted for a drop, can't admit they got it so blatently wrong)

inflation 2.4% - 2.6% next report

then we'll see raises...

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Its a bit strange isn't it...

if 5 vote for raise, and 4 vote for lower... wouldn't the rational thing be to HOLD?

I guess its pretty much guarenteed never to happen though.

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I can't see much prospect of rises in the near future, it seems the hurricane and like for like retail sales down (even though total sales up 3%) will be the latest excuses not to raise rates.

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4 raise (with Mervyn, making their point that Brown's men got it wrong)

5 hold (the ones that voted for a drop, can't admit they got it so blatently wrong)

inflation 2.4% - 2.6% next report

then we'll see raises...

I raised a thread about this last week. If Merv and his guys who voted for a hold at 4.75 last month now vote for a hold at 4.5 - they are infact saying that the other 5 got it right. I'm pretty sure that Merv doesn't think that, so it will be interesting how this pans out.

I still think it will be a hold, but I hope Merv goes for a raise - I will have mass respect for him if he does.

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I raised a thread about this last week. If Merv and his guys who voted for a hold at 4.75 last month now vote for a hold at 4.5 - they are infact saying that the other 5 got it right. I'm pretty sure that Merv doesn't think that, so it will be interesting how this pans out.

I still think it will be a hold, but I hope Merv goes for a raise - I will have mass respect for him if he does.

What you all keep forgetting is Merv 'invited' everyone to reduce rates (its in the minutes). As he saw everyone else vote, he probably voted to keep them unchanged so the markets don't expect further rate cuts.

Its a (almost) dead cert of a hold this month.

What would be interesting is how people vote, we'll have to wait 2 weeks for that!

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What you all keep forgetting is Merv 'invited' everyone to reduce rates (its in the minutes).  As he saw everyone else vote, he probably voted to keep them unchanged so the markets don't expect further rate cuts.

Its a (almost) dead cert of a hold this month.

What would be interesting is how people vote, we'll have to wait 2 weeks for that!

Not sure if that was Mervs reason? Not read the minutes so not gonna dispute it.

Might not have to wait 2 weeks though if its unaminous!

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I was wrong last time :wacko: and went for a hold, but surely this month can't be another cut?

I 'm going for a hold again this month, simply because I think raising it the very next month after a cut would make them look a bit daft.

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So, what are the predictions for Interest rates this week?

Seems that every time the bank of england is due to make its decision, there are LOADS of stories in the paper about how bad it is in retail etc.

Probably remain as they are? Can't see them doing anything contraversial after the divide last month- be very surprised if they were cut again.

Any opinions?

hold

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OECD tells banks to relax over rates

By Chris Giles, Economics Editor Financial Times

Published: September 6 2005 12:10 | Last updated: September 6 2005 13:23

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development on Tuesday urged the world's central banks to adopt a relaxed attitude to interest rates in the wake of surging oil prices and Hurricane Katrina..........<snip>.....................he also advised the Bank of England to set lower interest rates than would have been the case before the oil price rises.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b5aa96c0-1ec6-11d...000e2511c8.html

It seems like there is a better than even chance that there will be lower rates around the world including the UK. Also it seems that the USA isn't going to raise taxes to pay for Katrina, rather they'll print money.

To me increased money supply and slack monetary policy signals even more asset inflation whether that be property, shares and yes, maybe even Gold.

Edited by ILBB

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They got it wrong last month but will never own up to that one so 'hold' I think.

Not surprised if they keep voting to hold until the New Year either to keep face, unless the evidence is so compelling that they KNOW they have to raise them.

(Suppose they could use Katrina as a face-saving way of raising them again, albeit it may well be a damn good reason anyway with inflation set to rise)

Edited by TheMadJock

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Its a bit strange isn't it...

if 5 vote for raise, and 4 vote for lower... wouldn't the rational thing be to HOLD?

I guess its pretty much guarenteed never to happen though.

Interesting point!

What happens if 3 vote hold, 3 vote raise and 3 lower? Presumably hold.

But what if 4 vote raise, 4 lower and one hold. Surely hold is the answer, but that way one out of 9 gets his way.

Guess they'd conspire not to vote in such a random/non agreement looking way.

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I 'm going for a hold again this month, simply because I think raising it the very next month after a cut would make them look a bit daft.

I hope that the people in control of the interest rates, which have significant impact on the economy, have better reasons for their decision than "looking a bit daft". :blink:

Then again, they did cut interest rates last month despite a 15% month on month increase in the rate of inflation.

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I hope that the people in control of the interest rates, which have significant impact on the economy, have better reasons for their decision than "looking a bit daft".  :blink:

I agree. These people are controlling IR's for a country of almost 60 million.

Them 'looking daft' is a ridiculous reason to not make the right choice!

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Interesting point!

What happens if 3 vote hold, 3 vote raise and 3 lower? Presumably hold.

But what if 4 vote raise, 4 lower and one hold. Surely hold is the answer, but that way one out of 9 gets his way.

Guess they'd conspire not to vote in such a random/non agreement looking way.

The Guv, I believe, has the controlling vote so draws are not possible

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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