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Converted Lurker

The First Crack In The Bubble

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I was genuinely shocked by this news from the US, 14% fall in average house price since April!! If true, how devestating is that, that is freefall, forget correction or crash that`s terminal velocity.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050905/phm001.html?.v=23

If the market falls another 7% by the year end are they are looking at close on a 25% fall year on year? Got me thinking that we did have a similar shock that none of the usual mainstream media suspects took hold of, namely Hometracks 3.2% fall year on year Aug 2004-Aug 2005. Not quite the fireworks of these US stats but still appeared to be buried somewhat.

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Lurker, you must have missed my posts!

I have been getting increasingly frustrated <_< with reports in the media of house price falls of 0.2%, when I am seeing falls of over 20% in my area (though admittedly that's of asking prices rather than sale prices).

Reporting UK averages is such an easy way to hide the truth...

You can check out some of my examples in 'Tunbridge Wells - Going Down' on the 'What are house prices doing in your area?' thread.

I seriously think there're going to be big falls of up to 30% countrywide - it's just hitting the southeast sooner...

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Lurker, you must have missed my posts!

I have been getting increasingly frustrated <_< with reports in the media of house price falls of 0.2%, when I am seeing falls of over 20% in my area (though admittedly that's of asking prices rather than sale prices).

Reporting UK averages is such an easy way to hide the truth...

You can check out some of my examples in 'Tunbridge Wells - Going Down' on the 'What are house prices doing in your area?' thread.

I seriously think there're going to be big falls of up to 30% countrywide - it's just hitting the southeast sooner...

Sorry mate, yes we`ve all pulled our hair out whilst so many attept to pull wool over our eyes, scary stuff though. I`m genuinely shocked and yes I do see it repeated in the UK nationwide. There is only so much the Hometrack/Halifax/ODPM etc can do to stop the "real figures" leaking out, this could get a lot bloodier than anyone imagined.

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So the US market is tanking...

So is Sydney with prices down about 15% from the peak and typical middle suburbs falling nearly 9% in the past quarter(!). Even the city average is falling over 1% a month.

So this is not isolated to only one country. A fact that makes it hard to dismiss. :)

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This is it.  Hang on to your hats and enjoy the ride!  (And from a 1991 buyer, don't believe any recoveries/stabilisations are lasting for at least three or four years, or you'll be suckered into the really big drops right at the end.)

Well said, Durch! I reckon 2010 is going to be the time...

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Sounds...different.

I'm about to move into a 1 bed flat in a pretty expensive area so the issue of saving money renting has become less potent.

What I am wary about buying is the psychological impact it will have. It will make me and my partner far more cautious with our savings (too cautious) when at our age we should be taking some risks (stocks etc).

I've been saving for so long I've forgotten the pleasure of spending. I used to love it!

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This is it.  Hang on to your hats and enjoy the ride!  (And from a 1991 buyer, don't believe any recoveries/stabilisations are lasting for at least three or four years, or you'll be suckered into the really big drops right at the end.)

The music has stopped, the rats are fleeing the sinking ship....... The Worlds most Massive/Biggest Ever Pyramid Selling Scam is teetering on the edge of an abyss....

:ph34r::lol::blink:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=12762&hl=

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Can someone tell me what "median" is?  It's not the same as "average".  Doesn't this just tell us what sort of price band most properties are selling in?  Be good to know your views.

Median: The middle value in a distribution, above and below which lie an equal number of values.

eg.: Set of values 1,1,2,2,5 ,9,10,12,10000

Median: 5

Average: 1115

Median helps take out the effect of extreme outliers - e.g. the really flash house at the end of a street with pool, gold plater garage etc...

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Can someone tell me what "median" is?  It's not the same as "average".  Doesn't this just tell us what sort of price band most properties are selling in?  Be good to know your views.

Heh! Heh! Good to see at least someone asking the pertinent question. Median means half way between the highest and the lowest, it is not the average price. This report seems to be saying that more houses are being sold but they are cheaper houses. That is not the same as a fall in the value of a given house. It would suggest, though, that there are more unsold very high-end houses than before, or fewer high-end houses are coming on the market.

For definitive evidence of house prices of individual properties falling, you'd need prices from a given street or area of equivalent properties.

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Can someone tell me what "median" is?  It's not the same as "average".  Doesn't this just tell us what sort of price band most properties are selling in?  Be good to know your views.

Very easy. The median is the mid point in the selling range. Example 99 houses sold. 49 houses below or equal to that point. 49 houses above or equal to that point. the 50th house is at the mid point or median.

Say the average selling price of a house in a particluar area was 130K, but 68 of those houses out of 99 had sold at 102K - then the median would be 102K. The average would most likely have been distorted by exceptionally high selling prices in perhaps, one street, or the sale of an 8 bed mansion etc

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Ok, we're all getting a bit excited here. :)

This US price plunge does seem a little dramatic to me although it could be true. Does anyone have any information that conflicts with this? If so, then in the interest of balance I would like to hear it.

If it is indeed true then it seems that we have an actual HPC unfolding right now in the US and parts of Australia. And in both Sydney and the US it seems to be a relatively rapid fall which most certainly can not be described as a soft landing.

And remember that we are looking at figures from when most non-Americans had no idea where New Orleans was on the map and there was no immediate concern about petrol supplies. Whatever the situation with house prices was then it is most likely somewhat worse now due to the petrol price and general confidence effects (which locally seem to be quite noticeable with even discount retailers shifting towards selling essentials like food).

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Which of you can honestly wait till 2010?!

I know I cant.

The 2nd half of 2007 is about as far as I can wait...I hope the major falls happen in the next 18 months.

Well, clearly I wasn't suggesting you should wait that long in order to purchase a family home or whatever if you had other motives for buying. Everyone has to consider their own situation and make the decision that's best for them. I myself will probably buy again in 2007, maybe sooner - I am just waiting for the kind of house I'm looking for to come into my price bracket.

I was merely hypothesizing that 2010 would be the year it bottoms out.

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Median is (IMO) a far better gauge for the market than average house price because transactions are so low that the data is pretty skewed.

In a vaguely Gausian or "Normal" distribution, the Mode, Mean and Median should be the same anyway.

I think the real point here is that no one number can be used as a good measure of the market (or indeed anything!).

What we all really want to know is how much it would cost at the moment to buy the house that I want and how much will it cost me this time next year.

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I'm thinking of buying later this year.

Not too seriously but if the right house came up in the right location my circumstances dictate that it would make sense.

Unbelievable I know. It's taken me several months to decide.

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Which of you can honestly wait till 2010?!

I can. But I'm not going to. I'm aiming to buy (again) by 2/3Q '06. I think prices will have drifted down sufficiently for me to be satisfied with the repayments.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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