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Jobless Recovery Till 2024

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-will-take-14-years-to-reach-pre-recession-levels-tele-005c5bc6e86b.html

Granted it is from the Torygraph and it is also from a study by the TUC but 2024? Thats terrible... Not to mention the fact that by 2024 computer AI and robots will be common features

Such as this

Somebody is going to say Luddite fallacy, I think it no longer applies:

"Past performance is not an indicator of future perfoamce."

Since the outsourcers and automation is going towards middle and high level jobs and at all levels. The manner in which new jobs can be created to absorb the displaced workers is impossible to acheive. For example IT and the internet. Whereby many of the jobs created at the boom are now performed by a piece of software embedded into the systems.

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The TUC said if private sector companies continued to create jobs at the same rate as they have over the past decade, it would take 14 years before the country could make up for jobs lost during the recession.

so if you extrapolate the period when the private sector was re-trenching due to expanding public sector under Labour - then the private sector will never be able to take up the slack as the public sector retrenches instead

right you are then Ted

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most public sector workers are already robots incapable of independent thought :lol:

I think you'll find they are talented individuals with a high sense of self worth all rateable at at least £60kp.a. in the private sector. and if they don't get theat they'll cry and you'll be sorry!

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so if you extrapolate the period when the private sector was re-trenching due to expanding public sector under Labour - then the private sector will never be able to take up the slack as the public sector retrenches instead

right you are then Ted

+ 1

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The TUC said if private sector companies continued to create jobs at the same rate as they have over the past decade, it would take 14 years before the country could make up for jobs lost during the recession.

But during proper recoveries job creation is much faster. When the recovery does finally come, it shouldn't take 14 years to work.

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But during proper recoveries job creation is much faster. When the recovery does finally come, it shouldn't take 14 years to work.

Unless of course all previous recoveries have been ever greater bubble recoveries, which means we are due for a very painful correction.

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But during proper recoveries job creation is much faster. When the recovery does finally come, it shouldn't take 14 years to work.

This analysis is from the Touchstone blog. http://www.touchstoneblog.org.uk/2010/07/obr-analysis-where-will-the-new-jobs-come-from/ Dated 12th July after the OBR published its comedy forecast, but as the figures in it are historical it's still pertinent.

Looking firstly at the1980s recession, from the second quarter of growth following the end of the downturn (Q3 1981) to Q4 1988 (the point at which employment levels – as set out in Adam’s analysis – had increased by 2 million) the total number of jobs had increased by 2,416,000. But in some sectors, the number of jobs had fallen. In mining, electricity and gas (-229,000), manufacturing (-733,000) and transport and communications (-37,000) jobs had been lost – a net loss of close to 1 million (999,000) positions.

Other sectors therefore saw significant levels of jobs growth. Finance and business services saw a 1,164,000 increase in jobs, followed by distribution, hotels and restaurants (which includes retail) where 748,000 jobs were created. There was also a significant rise in jobs in (or funded by) the public sector (705,000 jobs created in public admin, education and health) and in construction (430,000).

The period following the 1990s downturn saw a similar pattern. From Q1 1992 to Q3 2001 (the period over which employment levels increased by 2 million) 1,943,000 jobs were created. Again, there were significant falls in some sectors – agriculture and fishing (-195,000), mining, electricity, gas and water (-127,000), manufacturing (-576,000) and construction (-132,000) – which were offset by considerable rises elsewhere. The sectors creating the most jobs were, as with the 1980s, finance and business services (1,414,000), distribution, hotels and restaurants (556,000) and public admin, education and health (387,000).

So, what does this analysis suggest for the current post-recession period? Firstly, it shows that when jobs are falling in some sectors, it is feasible for overall job creation levels to rise – albeit at a slower timescale than forecast by the OBR. But it is also clear that jobs growth in the past has been strongly driven by finance and business services – a sector that has been hit extremely hard by the current downturn losing over 290,000 jobs (compared to a gain of 7,000 jobs over the 1980s recession, and a loss of 94,000 during the 1990s recession).

Public admin, health and education has also seen net gains following previous recessions – but over the next five years the OBR is predicting a net fall in public sector employment of around 600,000. Of course the OBR’s estimates relate to directly employed public sector workers, and increased contracting out may lead to some growth in the number of private sector employees delivering public services. But even if this is the case, with the most severe spending cuts since WW2 on the cards it seems unlikely that (even if public services being delivered by the private sector were included) jobs growth in this area will be on a par with previous post-recession experiences.

If the recovery follows previous models, this would leave retail and hotels as the key driver of jobs creation. If GDP growth follows the OBR’s forecasts, there is no reason to suppose that jobs would not be created in these sectors – but what would the rate be? With growth forecast to be lower than previous post-recession periods, consumption will probably also be less, leading to fewer service sector jobs than in the past. And even the most optimistic scenario could not possibly lead to anywhere close to 2 million jobs in these sectors being created over 5 years – in the entire period since Q1 1980 until the end of last year, only 1,160,000 jobs were gained in distribution, hotels and restaurants.

Given that finance and business services and the public sector will not be driving jobs growth, and that the gains in retail and hospitality may be significant but nowhere near enough to reach the OBR’s totals, hopes may rest with manufacturing. But this would be a heroic assumption – since 1980 more than 4 million manufacturing jobs have been lost, and job levels have been falling consistently since 1998. In the absence of any clear strategy to support manufacturing jobs growth it is unclear both how this trend will be reversed and how enough jobs will be created to allow the realisation of the OBR’s forecasts.

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most public sector workers are already robots incapable of independent thought :lol:

Well done. 3 posts in to a completley unrelated topic you manage to roll out the public sector bashing dogma. Your capability for independent thinking impresses me.

What part of the public sector do you work for ?

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Or we could pull out of the EU, send all the Eastern Euro farm workers, labourers, plumbers packing and actually train british people up to do those jobs.

Who will then fail to sell anything because of punitive trade barriers.

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This analysis is from the Touchstone blog. http://www.touchstoneblog.org.uk/2010/07/obr-analysis-where-will-the-new-jobs-come-from/ Dated 12th July after the OBR published its comedy forecast, but as the figures in it are historical it's still pertinent.

This is the big issue. In that oh it's always worked out in the past it'll work out again... the problem is though we are not in 1980s or 1990s we're 2010 where outsourcing and automation is the name of the game now.

Outsourcing was in its infancy in the 80s and 90s it has now matured and it took the low level jobs first... now itis taking the higher level jobs such as law and accountancy.

Automation will probably take the same tasks i.e. it goes for the menial stuff like bread factories (like the kind I worked in in the 1990s during summers), but overtime with the progression of computing power it may well be capable in a few years to take on jobs which require extensive education. And what then? Can humans retrain fast enough to maintain jobs which may well be sucked up by the automation or outsourcers anyway? Will computers slow down to give us a breather to catch up?

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Will computers slow down to give us a breather to catch up?

Microsoft are working as we speak to slow down all the world's computers as anyone who has had experience of XP SP3 will know.

Truth is that the core most of the worlds operating systems are over 30 years old and the architecture has not changed that fundamentally from the time it was a gleam in Johnny Von Neumann's eye. It is true that the hardware has all got a lot quicker and much, much cheaper but the modern computer is no more a radical departure from its predecessors than current cars are from the model T Ford.

Edited by realcrookswearsuits

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Who will then fail to sell anything because of punitive trade barriers.

:lol: yeah right, so if we left the EU all of a sudden we would stop trading with them or they'd put up trade barriers.

If you've got money people will trade with you end of.

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:lol: yeah right, so if we left the EU all of a sudden we would stop trading with them or they'd put up trade barriers.

If you've got money people will trade with you end of.

Yep, I had this argument on another forum. Pointed out that we buy more from the EU than they buy from us. He was convinced that they would put up trade barriers to punish us for leaving. Total twit.

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Yep, I had this argument on another forum. Pointed out that we buy more from the EU than they buy from us. He was convinced that they would put up trade barriers to punish us for leaving. Total twit.

Thats not the worst arguement I've heard. The worst one was when a uber Pro-Eu person spoke on TV he said well the EU is great, I mean if you see a washing machine is cheaper in Germany than France you can buy it from Germany...

I so wanted to ask him when humans perfected teleportation technology.

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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