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RichM

Pray Germany Doesn't Vote In A Thatcher

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Here we go. I'm no trader like Dr Bubb, but dear God I've earned plenty of complimentary lates off the back of my forthright (i.e. right of Marx in my work canteen) opinions. This might just get you thinking...

Britain could soon be Europe's sick man again

Yes, I've posted it elsewhere, but it is worth thinking about seriously. Germany's manufacturing is doing surprisingly well, apparently. Those "green shoots of recovery" are bursting up all over the place.

Unleashed by a tax-cutting Chancellor, could German manufacturing skill (surely a more appropriate phrase than "manufacturing might"?) really take off?

And could the UK, with it's debt firmly run up by the true wealth creating industries of property speculation and five-a-day coordinators, sink beneath the waves?

Let's chew the cud about Britain's debt monster - you get special "Bubbpoints" for posting graphs or share prices.

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Its gonna happen, whether the Germans elect a conservative government or not.

I've moved my money into German industrials and utilities. The US and UK economies are real estate and consumer debt driven shams whilst the Germans have been quietly slaving away to become the worlds #1 exporter.

Its all for the best though - its time for the UK to take its medicine. :ph34r:

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Germans have savings as well - unlike the UK. Their economy is on a firm footing because it has been run properly - they have had their recession & haven't created a whole lot of non jobs or retail positions selling cheap chinese imports to people who use borrowed money to pay for them (which they will be paying back over the next 25 years)

Follows the usual pattern of football matches between England & Germany. England take the lead, but are eventually outplayed by the Germans who have prepared better and who have longer term resilience as a result.

All Gets a bit depressing really :(

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I witnessed first hand abit of the german effeciency that people speak about, it was a 20K project and it was shipped over from germany along with their project engineer, everything was perfect and fitted together just right, the whole kit was complete even down to the last split washer.

In the uk we cant even get a flat-pack from MFI right.

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Stick with the plan you guys.

We are all going to get rich by buying houses and renting them out to each other. As another income stream we are going to mow each others lawn and cut each others hair. :rolleyes:

Quick, grab some rope and find a lamp post whilst I find out who is to blame. :ph34r:

What a joke. An economy based on rising house prices :blink:

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Its gonna happen, whether the Germans elect a conservative government or not.

I've moved my money into German industrials and utilities. The US and UK economies are real estate and consumer debt driven shams whilst the Germans have been quietly slaving away to become the worlds #1 exporter.

Likewise regarding German industrials and utilities but it may pay not to ignore the German property market. It's totaly undervalued compared to most of Europe (just log in to a German estate agents and see what you get for £120,000!!!) and there's a good chance that their archaic mortgage system is about to be 'modernised' to be more like the USA and UK markets. International money is already quietly finding a home in property markets over there. Perhaps we smaller investors might find it profitable to follow the big boys?

BTW - I've changed my monicor to something a little more serious ;)

Edited by ILBB

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Just got back from Germany and although this is only my personal observation in one small twon I was told this is happening all over Germany.

Basically - everywhere you go new houses are being built - not flats or large (two family) houses like before but new - one family- houses. Yes it seems Germans are no longer satsified with renting and families want to buy there own homes. They are moving away from their tradtional housing style towards a more UK home ownership style.

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This may be the stumbling block for Germany(in the long run)

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/06092005/17/people...ople-s-car.html

German workers are among the highest paid in the world, earning about 20 per cent more than in France and five times more than in Slovakia.

Cut-throat competition in the global car market, a high euro making its exports too pricey, and one of the most coddled, benefit-bedecked workforces in the first world are whipping up chill winds for Volkswagen.

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Germany has many problems and a long way to go, but I've been very impressed that they've managed to keep performing so well while assimilating the East. It just goes to prove how impressive their economy is, and they've had nothing like North Sea oil to prop them up either.

As for Merkel... well, I don't particularly mind what flavour of politician she is, I just love the idea of a physicist making it to the top of a powerful economy. Maybe she'd be instrumental in making sure more money gets put into fusion research or similar technologies which might actually change the world one day.

Or maybe she'll do a Thatch and forget she ever studied science. It's got to be preferable to another lawyer at the top though, surely?

Andrew McP

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But we have the Best supermarkets!

An excellent article fully in line with my personal experiences of working in France and German (engineering industry).

Supermarkets: the problem is that German shoppers no matter how affluent cannot be induced to spend a pfenning extra on service or frillls. Therefore while we have bloated Tesco and Sainsburys, very successful retailers but operating on fat margins that just don't cut it in Germany, there you have Lidl, Aldi and others who are ruthlessly cost-focused. Not to our molly-coddled tastes perhaps but certainly highly profitable in the right environment. A failue to understand this dynamic caused a big set back for Wal-Mart which couldn't compete on cost in Germany! Lidl I think do not even have toilets, the staff are expected to piss round the back (possibly an urban legend).

This brilliance in cost-control augurs well for an age of competition with the likes of India and China.

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I was speaking to a German friend the other week about their economy and she was pretty depressed about it. I suggested that perhaps the darkest hour is just before dawn, and she said something along the lines of "I don't think things are EVER going to get better in Germany".

The perfect time for a contrarian investor?

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Likewise regarding German industrials and utilities but it may pay not to ignore the German property market. It's totaly undervalued compared to most of Europe (just log in to a German estate agents and see what you get for £120,000!!!) and there's a good chance that their archaic mortgage system is about to be 'modernised' to be more like the USA and UK markets. International money is already quietly finding a home in property markets over there. Perhaps we smaller investors might find it profitable to follow the big boys?

so you are going to go and try and fu'ck up germany too ?

do you learn nothing ?

and its Moniker.

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Guest Riser

No wonder we are in the Sh!t with leaders like Sir Digby Jones. He seems to have written off UK industry, all except blue chips like Airbus and Rolls-Royce and want EU trade barriers lifting so we can export yet more UK manufacturing jobs to India and China. What do we get in return ? only 1% of UK exports go to China and India so I suggest we slap up the barriers until the exchange is a little more equal.

We must say 'no' to euro-fudge and 'yes' to free trade

 

Britain is one of the greatest trading nations, trusted around the world, and the secret of that success has been free trade, fearlessness in the face of competition and a determination not to be protectionist.

Trade is one thing when you are selling manufactured goods abroad but all we are doing now is consuming imported goods with borrowed money and destroying our own industry.

The result is the British consumer being denied products, retailers with problems not of their making and huge loss of street cred for the EU in the eyes of the Chinese.

Who gives a stuff about EU street cred all he seems interested in is not to inconvenience fat cat retailers importing cheap goods and flogging them for a profit to a debt ridden British public.

Globalisation is here to stay. If the 19th century belonged to Britain and the 20th to the United States, the 21st century belongs to Asia. But some in Europe and the US just don’t get it.

Oh we get it alright, what we don't get is why our leaders don't want to do anything to prevent it. Brown is much more interested in keeping the UK borrowing with low interest rates and keeping inflation in check by importing cheap goods and foreign workers who will work for next to nothing

It is hardly surprising that some nations feel economically vulnerable when confronted by the relentless march of globalisation. But there is an inevitability about it that makes clumsy attempts at protectionism futile. The key has to be developing niche product ranges, designs and technologies that demonstrate real added value.

So where is the investment to support development and innovation, we used to be the best in the world. Demand from accountants and the market for short term results has stifled investment and long term development, British industry will disappear unless the government invests in the future and that doesn't mean reducing standards at university to attract more engineering students to keep unemployment figures down. As for the service industry taking the place of industry it is a joke to think that calling someone a customer relations manager some how endows them with skills that can't easily be found abroad.

Much of the service sector is successful because it feeds on the government and banking money machine thats working faster than ever trying to keep debt increasing without the public realising they are just part of one big pyramid scheme.

Edit: One last thought, what happened to the high ideals of the Labour party, it wasn't that long ago that these Chinese leaders were running over students with tanks, perhaps they are prepared to sacfifice everything to keep the UK consummer and housing bubbles inflated, they are a discrace.

Edited by Riser

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The perfect time for a contrarian investor?

I suggested Germany was an ideal place to buy real estate late last year. The HPC 'intelligencia' (Dr Bubb and ZZG) scoffed at my suggestion to invest in Berlin.

As usuall the men with graphs dont cut the mustard.

Germany is the last developed western nation not to have had a real estate frenzy. The time has come.

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all we are doing now is consuming imported goods with borrowed money and destroying our own industry.

No, we have a lot of uk business camped in China. Thier global output is then exported around the world and the profits come to the UK companies.

German manufacturers are now also following suit, they are camping a lot of thier manufacturing into eastern europe.

As I always point out, the cause of this migration to low cost economies is the consumer, you and I. We demand low costs. 'Rip - off britain' protagonists always urge us to seek the lowest price as do Which and the Consumers Association.

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So where is the investment to support development and innovation, we used to be the best in the world. Demand from accountants and the market for short term results has stifled investment and long term development, British industry will disappear unless the government invests in the future

Are you French? If so your English is excellent. Perhaps this is what you have in mind:

French Search Engine

In fact, as you should know, the government is the very last body we should count on for development, innovation and especially investment (except in infrastructure and core public services). The fact that city pressure and scrutiny is reasonably effective in this country at finding winners and eliminating losers is good for the economy. In the UK we do have some of the niches and specialities that a previous poster mentioned, even if we can't compete against German high-end anc Chinese low-end manufacturing or American scale.

The biggest threat to the UK economy is contained in the article at the start of this thread: UK state spending is now set to go back up above Germany's for the first time in many years. It's tragic.

edit: your/you're!

Edited by BoredTrainBuilder

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Guest Riser
No, we have a lot of uk business camped in China. Thier global output is then exported around the world and the profits come to the UK companies.

German manufacturers are now also following suit, they are camping a lot of thier manufacturing into eastern europe.

As I always point out, the cause of this migration to low cost economies is the consumer, you and I. We demand low costs. 'Rip - off britain' protagonists always urge us to seek the lowest price as do Which and the Consumers Association.

It depend on who you think UK industry should benefit, the people who work in the factory producing goods or the government receiving income from the company in the form of tax.

Personally I would prefer to see British companies employing workers here in the UK, proper jobs paying a decent wage that can't be exported abroad at the flick of a switch.

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Or economic growth.

The point is Germans have huge personal resources and are ripe for a real estate frenzy like thier British cousins have enjoyed. Ive researched many places with regard to property investment and I find I come across German investors more and more, which suggests a latent 'pre - boil' appetite.

I come across investors from all over the world and many are not from countries which have had any economic growth.

I GUARANTEE MANY OF U NEG - HEADS WILL REGRET NOT BUYING A CHEAP BERLIN APPARTMENT. I PREDICT THEY WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 36 MONTHS.

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I GUARANTEE MANY OF U NEG - HEADS WILL REGRET NOT BUYING A CHEAP BERLIN APPARTMENT. I PREDICT THEY WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 36 MONTHS.

Ha-ha... if we can't beat the Germans fairly by producing more, we can at least get revenge by pricing them out of a home with artificially cheap loans. Good one, mate!

Gotta love property 'investors': screw over the population of one country, then when they've been enslaved for life with massive mortgages, you move on to the next.

Edited by MarkG

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The point is Germans have huge personal resources and are ripe for a real estate frenzy like thier British cousins have enjoyed. Ive researched many places with regard to property investment and I find I come across German investors more and more, which suggests a latent 'pre - boil' appetite.

I come across investors from all over the world and many are not from countries which have had any economic growth.

I GUARANTEE MANY OF U NEG - HEADS WILL REGRET NOT BUYING A CHEAP BERLIN APPARTMENT. I PREDICT THEY WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 36 MONTHS.

Dogbox, I think you're right. I may go over and have look in the next few months. I loved living Berlin, it was my favourite out of all the many great places I have been privileged to experience.

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Personally I would prefer to see British companies employing workers here in the UK, proper jobs paying a decent wage that can't be exported abroad at the flick of a switch.

Me to, but how?

The consumer drives price wars (I bet you seek out cheapest ink and DVDs), so either we manufacture abroad or go bust. At least profits come back to the UK and trickle throughout the economy as a whole. Better than no profits at all which would be the case were UK manufacturing subject to the high costs levied by a lazy 'my rights' brit workforce.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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