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Grime- skint wouldbe ftb

Market Bottom

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OK, I'm not Mystic Meg, but ive been chewing on me black cat bone, consulting the tea leaves and hanging up me seaweed, and the spirits on the other side have been telling me the market is going to go into a swift decline within the next 6 months and bottom out mid to late 2007. So I reckon the time to buy will be around about Xmas 07 / Spring 08, and I'm sorting out all my personal financial matters to aim for that point.

what dya reckon? :unsure:

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That would make it harder and faster than last time.

Would be nice but I think its a little over optomistic for the absolute bottom.

Having said that I will probably be looking to buy at a similar time, all I want is for prices to be affordable for me, I will probably not wait for the absolute bottom.

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The bottom will be when all the following are in place:

The media will be full of negative equity and bankrupt BTL articles;

Interest rate will be > 6%;

Inflation >4%;

Multiple for sale signs down every street;

Retail Sales YOY down >20%.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock. The mortgage debt nightware is just beginning.

Remember pigs get slaughtered.http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05092005/323/luxury-british-developer-offers-live-pig-house-sold.html

Edited by Pluto

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So I reckon the time to buy will be around about Xmas 07 / Spring 08, and I'm sorting out all my personal financial matters to aim for that point.

You may well be right for the S East as the poster before said.

However, as I said to a client yesterday, it is not a given that HPs will rise inexorably again after that. There is after all a body of opinion that says that there will be a sizeable increase - say 50% - 80% - but that then there's a double dip taking us back to early 1990's levels.

Impossible? No.

Likely? No

Possible? Yes. We won't have a better idea until 2008 when we know how economies are then.

If we relate this to equities, many forecast a big drop from '99. They were right.

The same said equities would rise for a couple of years (50% ish) then see another big dip. Will that last bit happen? Well, we're about to find out... :ph34r:

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I'm going for later than 2007/2008. I think its going to be nearer 2011-2012 that we see the absolute bottom. What i think is going to happen is that we will experience a dive in property prices over the next 3 years or so, and then a slight levelling out/picking up before we head down again. I think that sentiment is the biggest player in all of this, and its ingrained into the british public's psyche (sp?) that property is where they need to be. You are brought up on cliches such as safe as houses, and its the be all and end all in this country to own somewhere. With this in mind, i predict that in 3 years time, prices will be just about affordable to those who want to stretch themselves, and this could spark a minor uplift in prices. Once levels start getting high again, phase two will begin and we will hit the bottom as i said earlier around 2011-2012. I'm by no means an financial guru, but thats my two pennies worth!

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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