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Another One Bites The Dust

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.....and try to change things from the inside!

Well this is my first ever topic start after years of lurking and sporadic posting, however, the news that CE is to pack in the blog seemed a good enough reason.

Ive read a lot of this guys posts over the years and he does seem to grasp the bigger picture and has a nice style of writing.

Heres hoping I get this bit right......

Excerpt

"Much of my writing has flowed from this analysis. This is the underlying reality of the world economy, and the driver behind the economic crisis. Sure, the collapse of the financial system was important, but this was a symptom of the underlying problems, and the failure to recognise the change in the world. Wealth creation has been slipping from the developed world to the emerging economies, and the financial services industry just recycled the growing wealth creation from the rest of the world into developed world debt. That this was unsustainable, and had to end in disaster, and would provide a shock to the world was inevitable.

The problem is that, when the shock hit, the reaction of the developed world was to pretend that this was a financial crisis, rather than a fundamental economic crisis. If the banks could just be saved, we could move on and get back to business. The bailing out of the banks followed, and sovereign states expanded their balance sheets with debt. If only the developed world consumers would climb back on to the debt treadmill, economies would get moving again. However, when consumers failed to comply with this lunacy, governments stepped forwards to fill the void. Keynes came back in fashion.

The days of the 'big state' were back, and intervention was the new paradigm. Whether pouring printed money into an economy, whether pouring borrowed money into the economy, the state would solve all. Nowhere did we see anyone asking a basic question; why are we really doing so badly in the developed world? Surely, if our economies were fundamentally sound, then the situation would resolve itself. There have, after all, often been hiccups, so why is it so bad this time?

Instead of asking whether the structure of our economies might have problems, the answer was to imagine that, somehow, more state intervention might provide a solution. Borrowing more money from the new wealth creators was a solution. More debt would solve the hangover from too much debt. But why did we accumulate so much debt in the first place? How did our economies structure themselves around the debt accumulation? How many people were employed, directly or indirectly, as a result of the ever increasing rate of debt accumulation? What must happen when the rate of debt accumulation slows, as it surely must? And what happens when the debt accumulation goes into reverse, and payment of debt starts to overtake new debt accumulation?"

and theres more at the link

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/

What with Cynicus, one of my favourite bloggers doing the off and Scepticus, one of my favourite posters also soon to depart, Im not sure how to feel?

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on that 'Economic misconceptions' topic.

An uncharacteristically sarcastic mini rant at some of the gold money/money is debt/FRB loonies that he has (IMO) patiently held back from mocking as he has tried to educate the board.

He may have been drunk but did say he was off to pastures new.

Cynicus....Scepticus.....Cynicus....Scepticus...?

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Yes, he's 100% correct, thanks for posting. The situation is unfixable, we just have to fight a rearguard action until all is quiet apart from a litle birdsong... if we're lucky.

Reading that blog I couldn't help but be reminding of the financial genius of Gordon Brown.

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.....and try to change things from the inside!

Well this is my first ever topic start after years of lurking and sporadic posting, however, the news that CE is to pack in the blog seemed a good enough reason.

Ive read a lot of this guys posts over the years and he does seem to grasp the bigger picture and has a nice style of writing.

Heres hoping I get this bit right......

Excerpt

"Much of my writing has flowed from this analysis. This is the underlying reality of the world economy, and the driver behind the economic crisis. Sure, the collapse of the financial system was important, but this was a symptom of the underlying problems, and the failure to recognise the change in the world. Wealth creation has been slipping from the developed world to the emerging economies, and the financial services industry just recycled the growing wealth creation from the rest of the world into developed world debt. That this was unsustainable, and had to end in disaster, and would provide a shock to the world was inevitable.

The problem is that, when the shock hit, the reaction of the developed world was to pretend that this was a financial crisis, rather than a fundamental economic crisis. If the banks could just be saved, we could move on and get back to business. The bailing out of the banks followed, and sovereign states expanded their balance sheets with debt. If only the developed world consumers would climb back on to the debt treadmill, economies would get moving again. However, when consumers failed to comply with this lunacy, governments stepped forwards to fill the void. Keynes came back in fashion.

The days of the 'big state' were back, and intervention was the new paradigm. Whether pouring printed money into an economy, whether pouring borrowed money into the economy, the state would solve all. Nowhere did we see anyone asking a basic question; why are we really doing so badly in the developed world? Surely, if our economies were fundamentally sound, then the situation would resolve itself. There have, after all, often been hiccups, so why is it so bad this time?

Instead of asking whether the structure of our economies might have problems, the answer was to imagine that, somehow, more state intervention might provide a solution. Borrowing more money from the new wealth creators was a solution. More debt would solve the hangover from too much debt. But why did we accumulate so much debt in the first place? How did our economies structure themselves around the debt accumulation? How many people were employed, directly or indirectly, as a result of the ever increasing rate of debt accumulation? What must happen when the rate of debt accumulation slows, as it surely must? And what happens when the debt accumulation goes into reverse, and payment of debt starts to overtake new debt accumulation?"

and theres more at the link

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/

What with Cynicus, one of my favourite bloggers doing the off and Scepticus, one of my favourite posters also soon to depart, Im not sure how to feel?

the man is an Austrian...but denies it with waffle.

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I ask myself these questions each and every day.

And I find myself frustrated that people like Tired of Waiting fail to understand because they have been brainwashed like the BoE by the orthodoxy of academic economics and 'development'.

People see the problem as a credit bubble. It is not.

The credit bubble has merely allowed us to disguise our deeper rooted economic problems and to exacerbate them.

Anyway - to more important questions - Scepticus is leaving us - why? Where is this announced?

Yep I'd agree with that we have major structural problems that aren't going to be fixed by some more cheap debt.

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I ask myself these questions each and every day.

And I find myself frustrated that people like Tired of Waiting fail to understand because they have been brainwashed like the BoE by the orthodoxy of academic economics and 'development'.

People see the problem as a credit bubble. It is not.

The credit bubble has merely allowed us to disguise our deeper rooted economic problems and to exacerbate them.

Anyway - to more important questions - Scepticus is leaving us - why? Where is this announced?

not a credit bubble?

Oh, thats OK, we can stop bailing the banks and they can pay what they owe. They dont have a credit problem.

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...when did UK not have major structural problems....?... :rolleyes:

We did alright when we plundered the resources of the colonies with virtual or actual slave labour and had the first mover advantage. It's been downhill since around the Boer war in terms of real wealth creation. Thank the Lord for North Sea oil, eh?

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We did alright when we plundered the resources of the colonies with virtual or actual slave labour and had the first mover advantage. It's been downhill since around the Boer war in terms of real wealth creation. Thank the Lord for North Sea oil, eh?

I wonder where we would be now without the North sea discoveries. Let us hope that shale gas can help us out over the coming years

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1854?

...here is a taster....... :rolleyes:

The first edition of the Annual Abstract, published in 1854, drew on data from 1840 to 1853. It ran

to 27 pages and contained 31 tables. The most recent edition, published by the Office for National

Statistics, runs to nearly 460 pages, includes 362 tables, and captures nearly 10,000 items of data.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/aas0710.pdf

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I wonder where we would be now without the North sea discoveries. Let us hope that shale gas can help us out over the coming years

Thorium LFTR reactors could be something worth researching.

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I ask myself these questions each and every day.

And I find myself frustrated that people like Tired of Waiting fail to understand because they have been brainwashed like the BoE by the orthodoxy of academic economics and 'development'.

People see the problem as a credit bubble. It is not.

The credit bubble has merely allowed us to disguise our deeper rooted economic problems and to exacerbate them.

Anyway - to more important questions - Scepticus is leaving us - why? Where is this announced?

Agreed. The credit bubble is just the tip of the iceberg, unfortunately.

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....re 1854...this is how it became good but we relied on Empire.... :rolleyes:

In 1840, £47.6 million in revenue was paid into the exchequer while expenditure totalled £49.2

million a deficiency of £1.6 million by the end of the decade net revenue was £53 million and

expenditure £50.9 million a surplus of £2.1 million.

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Spot on.

The elites hoped we wouldn't notice we were getting poorer whilst they are getting ever richer via their WTO globalist 'free trade' :lol::lol::lol: stealth theft.

Well we are.

It needs to stop for our children's sake if not ours.

We need protectionism, tariffs, capital controls, to abolish the WTO and unwind support for the bankstering industry.

Until that happens we shall just become ever poorer.

Everything flows from this simple fact.

(Don't bother ToW - I couldn't care less what you think)

and why is Scepticus going? He's ace he is. Even if I don't understand most of it.

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There is no need to worry, the financial stabilisers are on and everything is going to plan

Google popped up a nice little ad for round the world cruises as I watched those passengers being thrown around the deck- who said the yanks don't do irony? :lol:

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on that 'Economic misconceptions' topic.

An uncharacteristically sarcastic mini rant at some of the gold money/money is debt/FRB loonies that he has (IMO) patiently held back from mocking as he has tried to educate the board.

He may have been drunk but did say he was off to pastures new.

Cynicus....Scepticus.....Cynicus....Scepticus...?

Scepticus is just as much a 'loony' as 'Injin'

The truth is out there

And it can be summed up in one simple sentence

You can't spend more than you earn

The crash was inevitable and the consequences are inevitable

And nothing anyone has tried or can try or will try is going to make any difference

Once you have driven a car off a cliff it doesn't matter if you stamp on the brake or the accelerator

:blink:

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Spot on.

The elites hoped we wouldn't notice we were getting poorer whilst they are getting ever richer via their WTO globalist 'free trade' :lol::lol::lol: stealth theft.

Well we are.

It needs to stop for our children's sake if not ours.

We need protectionism, tariffs, capital controls, to abolish the WTO and unwind support for the bankstering industry.

Until that happens we shall just become ever poorer.

Everything flows from this simple fact.

(Don't bother ToW - I couldn't care less what you think)

and why is Scepticus going? He's ace he is. Even if I don't understand most of it.

Neither does 'he' - neither does anyone.

It took me 5 minutes to realise that the way to be considered an intellectual on this site is to type lengthy posts full of incomprehensible, meaningless jargon.

Anyone who actually writes in plain English and tries to explain anything in terms everyone can understand is considered to be a cretin.

The real irony is that anyone who actually knew what they were talking about would hardly waste hundreds of hours posting on internet forums

They would be too busy putting their 'expertise' into practice making money.

IMHO

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I ask myself these questions each and every day.

And I find myself frustrated that people like Tired of Waiting fail to understand because they have been brainwashed like the BoE by the orthodoxy of academic economics and 'development'.

People see the problem as a credit bubble. It is not.

The credit bubble has merely allowed us to disguise our deeper rooted economic problems and to exacerbate them.

Anyway - to more important questions - Scepticus is leaving us - why? Where is this announced?

scepticus was sibley

Now that the housing market looks like its turning down again he probably didn't think taking all of us for a ride was funny anymore. The poor chap is really a bit disturbed by house prices going down.

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scepticus was sibley

Now that the housing market looks like its turning down again he probably didn't think taking all of us for a ride was funny anymore. The poor chap is really a bit disturbed by house prices going down.

Really?

Then he just became a bit more sophisticated in the tactics used to take people for a ride.

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Neither does 'he' - neither does anyone.

It took me 5 minutes to realise that the way to be considered an intellectual on this site is to type lengthy posts full of incomprehensible, meaningless jargon.

That was his style and I'll admit he was gifted but on the few things I have some expertise on I could see he was just spewing out tons of plagiarised gibberish he didn't understand himself.

Neither does 'he' - neither does anyone.

That's about right, but some of us are trying.

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Really?

Then he just became a bit more sophisticated in the tactics used to take people for a ride.

Quite. When he got tired of being a sibley which wasn't working on this site he came back straight away with the scepticus avatar and a different tack.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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