Whats To Stop This All Happening Again?

[libitina]

Five or ten years from now will we be back at square 1 again?

Will people learn the lesson that property values can go up as well as down?

Will there still be numpty amateur BTL'ers pricing out FTB's?

Will people still be saying' It's different this time'?

Will the government levy heavy taxes on 2nd properties to try to stop a repeat of the last few years?

Will the general public ever learn their lesson?

Will Kirsty and Phil still be spouting their 'expertise' on TV?

Will we still be posting on this forum?

[VacantPossession]

Five or ten years from now will we be back at square 1 again?

Will people learn the lesson that property values can go up as well as down?

Will there still be numpty amateur BTL'ers pricing out FTB's?

Will people still be saying' It's different this time'?

Will the government levy heavy taxes on 2nd properties to try to stop a repeat of the last few years?

Will the general public ever learn their lesson?

Will Kirsty and Phil still be spouting their 'expertise' on TV?

Will we still be posting on this forum?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't mean to be picky, but don't you mean "go down as well as up"?

VP

[2005]

Whats To Stop This All Happening Again?

Nothing - but next time most of us will be homeowners

[New Darker Law]

Five or ten years from now will we be back at square 1 again?

Will people learn the lesson that property values can go up as well as down?

Will there still be numpty amateur BTL'ers pricing out FTB's?

Will people still be saying' It's different this time'?

Will the government levy heavy taxes on 2nd properties to try to stop a repeat of the last few years?

Will the general public ever learn their lesson?

Will Kirsty and Phil still be spouting their 'expertise' on TV?

Will we still be posting on this forum?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have no doubt it will all happen again.

The reasons for a boom may be different, eg no BTL, but it will still happen.

It's a market (oh yes it is) it therefore is cyclical, and will turn over as long as their are humans and human nature.

NDL

[SE1]

Probably, yes.

[MarkG]

Five or ten years from now will we be back at square 1 again?

Possibly, but we'll be heading into the mass retirement of boomers, which will cause dramatic changes in this country: high taxes to pay for NHS and pensions, and a glut of houses and shares on the market as they try to liquidate their 'savings'.

Plus most jobs which can be outsourced will have been, and you won't be buying a 300k one-bed 'executive flat' by flinging coffee in Starbucks.

Massive house-price inflation has been a short-lived phenomenon of the boomer generation: there's no reason to expect it to continue as they retire and die off.

Edited September 5, 2005 by MarkG

[miser]

I personally think that it will never be as extreme a situation as it is right now.We seem to have had a convergence of so many influences to tip it to the extreme this time.We have a huge amount of baby boomers that have bought into the idea of property derived pensions being a good idea.A government that has done its level best to help tip the housing market so far in favour of landlords and people who can equity release to gain additional funds to finance property purchases.Record amounts of teenage graduates who will not be the slightest bit interested in owning for far longer than they normally would due to student debt.Vastly relaxed lending and never before seen amounts of debt carried by every tom dick or harry.

I dont think that all of these factors are going to converge again because this time I think we are going to have a recession the likes of which we have never seen before.God help every one of us when this baby comes to pass.................

[Guest]

Massive house-price inflation has been a short-lived phenomenon of the boomer generation: there's no reason to expect it to continue as they retire and die off.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hey --

That's my ma and pa you're talking about!

Point taken though. There's no particular reason for any one 30 and below to pay anything for a house with all those wanna-upsize 40 year olds just above us....

Or for us to expect to get anything for our houses in out future retirement with that massive oversupply...

All the more reason not to pay now!

[mopo]

I doubt very much it will happen again because once this bubble bursts it will take the rest of the economy with it into a recession lasting several years. By which time we will be well into the effects of peak oil, and the whole global ecomonic model which is based on perpetual growth through cheap energy will start to go into a protracted meltdown.

It will probably take a couple of hundred years for some kind of equilibrium to return, once we have downsized the population by two thirds and invented a new economic system based on renewable energy.

I think property will just come to be seen as shelter from the elements, and not as a commodity to be traded. You may as well just rent forever, or squat.

[Unexpected]

I doubt very much it will happen again because once this bubble bursts it will take the rest of the economy with it into a recession lasting several years. By which time we will be well into the effects of peak oil, and the whole global ecomonic model which is based on perpetual growth through cheap energy will start to go into a protracted meltdown.

It will probably take a couple of hundred years for some kind of equilibrium to return, once we have downsized the population by two thirds and invented a new economic system based on renewable energy. 

I think property will just come to be seen as shelter from the elements, and not as a commodity to be traded. You may as well just rent forever, or squat.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Good post. A little extreme perhaps but not impossible. The bulls all say "its different this time", so perhaps it is but just not in the way they think.

[Cornish Pasty]

In a weird way I'm looking forward to the recession and its accompanying cleansing of the economy. I'd love to start a business just when everything is getting going again having prepared thoroughly during the lean years. The company I work for may go pop, but one door closes, another opens...

Oh yeah, I may be able to get some housing sorted out for my family by then as well.

Markets and economies are cyclical; name one that isn't if you can.

[Warwickshire Lad]

It will probably take a couple of hundred years for some kind of equilibrium to return, once we have downsized the population by two thirds and invented a new economic system based on renewable energy. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

mopo, that's a good first post.

On the flip side, the peak oil crisis should mean that massive investment will finally start going into renewable energies and a lot more R&D will go into this area creating jobs etc.

However, one can't help feeling that the transition between an oil/gas driven economy and ones driven by renewables is in any way going to be a smooth one.

Of the developed world, I think that Europe are the most open to changes in lifestyle to accommodate this, but America seems addicted as ever with no signs of any change in attitude.

Sometimes I wonder whether the U.S. will be able to avoid self-destructing due to their oil-addiction and taking the world with it.

[Without_a_Paddle]

By which time we will be well into the effects of peak oil, and the whole global ecomonic model which is based on perpetual growth through cheap energy will start to go into a protracted meltdown.

Never mind peak oil, I remember being taught at school in the late 70s that ALL the oil would run out by 1996! Don't be too surprised if we manage at least one more boom/bust cycle before the lack of oil supply becomes a real problem.

I think property will just come to be seen as shelter from the elements, and not as a commodity to be traded. You may as well just rent forever, or squat.

What a sad future you project for yourself (and the rest of us!) mopo.

I notice it was your first post too! Welcome to HPC.

[Unexpected]

Never mind peak oil, I remember being taught at school in the late 70s that ALL the oil would run out by 1996! Don't be too surprised if we manage at least one more boom/bust cycle before the lack of oil supply becomes a real problem.

What a sad future you project for yourself (and the rest of us!) mopo.

I notice it was your first post too! Welcome to HPC.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

On the contrary I think mopo is projecting a much improved future for himself and the rest of us.

What future do you wish for Without a Paddle? Wage slaves working to pay their rent?

[Without_a_Paddle]

On the contrary I think mopo is projecting a much improved future for himself and the rest of us.

What future do you wish for Without a Paddle? Wage slaves working to pay their rent?

If you think global economic meltdown is a good future then we are going to have to differ on that one.

If you think squatting is a good future then we differ again.

I would guess (and it's a wild guess) that a society made up of squatters might be just a tincy wincy bit unstable...

[Without_a_Paddle]

What future do you wish for Without a Paddle? Wage slaves working to pay their rent?

What do I WISH for? Are there limits to what I can wish for?

Can I be selfish with my wish or do I have to be humanitarian?

[BuyingBear]

Never mind peak oil, I remember being taught at school in the late 70s that ALL the oil would run out by 1996!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We'll never completely run out of oil as such, there will be oil around for hundreds of years, most wells are deemed dry when 50% has been extracted.

It's just that all the low hanging fruit has gone and therefore so has the era of cheap oil, all of the great oil fields in the world were discovered by sight alone, that doesn't happen anymore, there has been no notable discoveries for years. Now we're into an era of diminishing returns, for instance in the North Sea they have to deploy very advanced technologies and lots more effort yet they extract less oil that they did 5 years ago, it peaked around 1999, it's been a downward curve since then, costs have gone up and production has gone down. The rate of extraction slowly declines and any attempt to artificially buck this trend by pumping copious amounts of fresh water to raise the pressure will result in geological problems and irreparable damage to the field.

Once a field has 'peaked' it doesn't just dry up overnight, it can continue on for years but it means that each year you will extract less oil that the year before and it will become increasingly difficult as you go on, they do a cost benefit analysis and it gets to the stage where it becomes uneconomical to continue, traditionally when 50% of proven reserves were extracted the well was deemed dry, modern techniques can take that to 30% if the price supports it. Obviously if the price is high then work continues for a little longer with less and less production as the years go on but as soon as it drops back work stops again, hence there is no slurge of cheap oil.

Eventually what has happened to the North Sea, US fields (peaked in '71) and various other countries will happen in the Middle East and therefore the world market will have 'peaked', there is already doubt about the Gharwar field in Saudi, some western technicians have already reported tell tale signs like the inability to ramp up production (you end up with more water than oil). It doesn't mean things run dry overnight, it just means they're unable to ramp up production even if they want to, hence the price will never come down unless they can perpetually find and tap new fields, and these new fields may not be viable at low prices (e.g. Canadian tar sands).

This will perpetually drive the price up and in some areas it will become economic to extract the difficult oil, or less desirable heavy sour oil, however production will never be able to match demand (unless there is serious demand destruction, of course).

As for the global peak, some say it's already upon us, some say 2015-2020, the French government has stated 2013, the US DoE thinks it a longterm thing >2038 assuming the Saudis are being honest with the figures, but if Shell wasn't honest (reserves now only 66% of previously stated figures), it raises questions. Who knows when, we only know for certain when it has actually occurred.

A peak will happen eventually, one year the world will be unable to extract more oil than the previous year, but oil will be around for all our lifetimes, it just wont be cheap and maybe limited to important industries like chemical, pharmaceutical, agricultural where it cannot be substituted. Things like petrol powered leaf blowers and 14mpg 'cars' will seem laughable to future generations, painful in their incredulity than even today.

Hopefully by then we'll find something better to power our cars etc, though remember hydrogen isn't an intrinsic fuel source like oil, just a way of storing and transporting energy from elsewhere. People talk about 'switching to hydrogen' as if we have natural sources waiting to be tapped, it has to be produced from somewhere, usually in the from of electrolysis using energy from fossil fueled power plants, put that in your pipe and smoke it!

Edited September 6, 2005 by BuyingBear

[theChuz]

While there remains greed and fear and a free market it will happen again, no doubt in my mind. May take a little longer than 5-10 years but it will happen again because thats what free markets do.

We've still got a long way to go through this part of the cycle, its going to be a lil messy, i see it with job losses, i see it with company cut backs, all the indicators are flashing a vibrant blood red.

I see it in the faces of the people who are blistfully unaware of their situation.

Still, it will all happen again, because quite simply its what free markets do.

[dipstick]

Good post BB but I'm still confused

I know that many countries are saying we have reached Peak Oil already. I saw a list on here the other week, but if the Saudis and other folk are saying we haven't then I'm a tad confused.

Your post seems to say that the definition of Peak Oil is when we are down to the last 50% (I think), and I've seen that on other posts as well.

Others seem to say that the definition is when it becomes more difficult to extract.

Sorry for being so thick........just trying to understand it all in laymans (idiots) terms!

[Without_a_Paddle]

Good post BB but I'm still confused

Agreed.

I'm a little suspicious of any data released about oil. It's such an important resource. There is too much vested interest involved to ever get a straight answer as to how much is left.

It's a shame there isn't a global 'dipstick' for us to use (no pun intended, dipstick)

[patientFTB]

Of course it'll happen again. All markets are influenced by speculation & fear and human nature will ensure this continues.

As a previous poster quoted; "We learn from history that we do not learn from history"

[dipstick]

Ooh Glad it's not just me paddle!

I am just very concerned with it at the moment and trying to sift the VI wheat from the chaff as the implications are enormous.

I suppose the Katrina issue has skewed stuff dramatically at the minute and am expecting that this hike will eventually settle down. The point is to what level?

Thing is, particularly in this country even more so than the US I would think, without cheap (I know we pay more in taxes but relatively speaking) oil, we are stuffed.

Nearly everything we use on a day to day basis would have to be imported and we could be held to financial ransom in all manner of ways.

Yes, the recent NO issue has highlighted the over consumption of certain things by the US but at least they do actually produce stuff of their own should push come to shove. Consumer goods are not the issue here but stuff like food and industry are.

We produce nothing and seem to delight in it.

Anyway I'm wandering off thread here.

Will the house price thing happen again. Depends on many factors. The roof over peoples head may become more of a practical issue than a societal factor.

[Blue Peter]

Good post BB but I'm still confused

I know that many countries are saying we have reached Peak Oil already.  I saw a list on here the other week, but if the Saudis and other folk are saying we haven't then I'm a tad confused.

Your post seems to say that the definition of Peak Oil is when we are down to the last 50% (I think), and I've seen that on other posts as well.

Others seem to say that the definition is when it becomes more difficult to extract.

Sorry for being so thick........just trying to understand it all in laymans (idiots) terms!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Indeed, a very good post BB.

I don't know what list you saw, but it may have been a list of the countries that have peaked. The concept of peak oil applies to individual wells, individual oil fields, countries and the world. So far, as far as we can tell, a number of countires have peaked (e.g. the US in 1971?, the UK in 1999, etc.), but the world has not yet, mainly because there is so much oil in Saudi Arabia. When Saudi Arabia peaks, then the world will peak....

...and then we're in trouble,

Peter.

[dipstick]

Thanks Peter!

It was on here somewhere a couple of weeks ago. Listed about 32 countries I think.

The mist is clearing!

[Blue Peter]

Thanks Peter!

It was on here somewhere a couple of weeks ago.  Listed about 32 countries I think.

The mist is clearing!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There's a good website which deals with this issue:

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/

It provides a lot of information such as the above,

Peter.