The Masked Tulip Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 So many of us have expectations of a stock crash to cause panic and a knock-on affect in consumer confidence and in housing... some of us thinking that the health of the DOW and FTSE being a core component of any future house price crash... but where is it? August was a month of articles, reports and financial commentators all talking about death crosses, head and shoulders, even the Hindenburg got mentioned, and worries about a coming stock crash in the DOW, S&P and the FTSE. Talk of 2009 was everywhere. Then the bw ankers returned from holiday and the DOW, FTSE et al have soared. Even our own HPC financial guys were talking about the Hindenberg as if they had bought shares in the Nazi ballon industry - what is going on? One last flurry before the crash or... I am posting this here as I am hoping for a wider discussion with the general forum and if I post this over in the financial forum the regulars there, at best, will simply ignore it and, at worse, they will start posting me charts and graphs which appear to be based on an ECG heart monitor reading. Myself, personally, have been looking towards a crash in the market to cause a wider panic in the global economies again and, in course, to have a fundamental knock-on on house prices. Is September too early? Is October and November the months to keep an eye on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 So many of us have expectations of a stock crash to cause panic and a knock-on affect in consumer confidence and in housing... some of us thinking that the health of the DOW and FTSE being a core component of any future house price crash... but where is it? August was a month of articles, reports and financial commentators all talking about death crosses, head and shoulders, even the Hindenburg got mentioned, and worries about a coming stock crash in the DOW, S&P and the FTSE. Talk of 2009 was everywhere. Then the bw ankers returned from holiday and the DOW, FTSE et al have soared. Even our own HPC financial guys were talking about the Hindenberg as if they had bought shares in the Nazi ballon industry - what is going on? One last flurry before the crash or... I am posting this here as I am hoping for a wider discussion with the general forum and if I post this over in the financial forum the regulars there, at best, will simply ignore it and, at worse, they will start posting me charts and graphs which appear to be based on an ECG heart monitor reading. Myself, personally, have been looking towards a crash in the market to cause a wider panic in the global economies again and, in course, to have a fundamental knock-on on house prices. Is September too early? Is October and November the months to keep an eye on? I think this sort of constant media exposure which would scare most punters out of buying should have acted as a massive clue to start buying or for the less adventurous at least definately not be short. See i said that without drawing a single line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearshape Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 hindeberg gives 120 days from confirmation and the footsie could still go up at least 100 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 6, 2010 Author Share Posted September 6, 2010 (edited) hindeberg gives 120 days from confirmation and the footsie could still go up at least 100 points Meaning? Edited September 6, 2010 by The Masked Tulip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 6, 2010 Author Share Posted September 6, 2010 I think this sort of constant media exposure which would scare most punters out of buying should have acted as a massive clue to start buying or for the less adventurous at least definately not be short. See i said that without drawing a single line But if most scared out of buying... who is doing the buying to drive up the markets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 Meaning? meaning its a prretty pointless indicator, it tells you a crash (at least 15%) might happen within 4 months, whooppee dooo, the thing could go up 20% in the first two months before it falls 15% and its still technically right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandora's box Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 So many of us have expectations of a stock crash to cause panic and a knock-on affect in consumer confidence and in housing... some of us thinking that the health of the DOW and FTSE being a core component of any future house price crash... but where is it? August was a month of articles, reports and financial commentators all talking about death crosses, head and shoulders, even the Hindenburg got mentioned, and worries about a coming stock crash in the DOW, S&P and the FTSE. Talk of 2009 was everywhere. Then the bw ankers returned from holiday and the DOW, FTSE et al have soared. Even our own HPC financial guys were talking about the Hindenberg as if they had bought shares in the Nazi ballon industry - what is going on? One last flurry before the crash or... I am posting this here as I am hoping for a wider discussion with the general forum and if I post this over in the financial forum the regulars there, at best, will simply ignore it and, at worse, they will start posting me charts and graphs which appear to be based on an ECG heart monitor reading. Myself, personally, have been looking towards a crash in the market to cause a wider panic in the global economies again and, in course, to have a fundamental knock-on on house prices. Is September too early? Is October and November the months to keep an eye on? My hunch is, the markets will only fall if and when the 'big players' find out that no more free 'funny money' is coming their way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 (edited) But if most scared out of buying... who is doing the buying to drive up the markets? commercial buyers rather than retail, they might start luring in the retail investor about 5% from its top ready to leave them holding the baby or it might crash now, its just it would be extremely unusual for the media to forecast a crash so i dont see it happening yet Edited September 6, 2010 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandora's box Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 commercial buyers rather than retail, they might start luring in the retail investor about 5% from its top ready to leave them holding the baby Aren't the low volumes on the Dow an indicator that most average investors have been spooked never to return (courtesy of HFT, Flash Crash, PPT )? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepyHead Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 Meaning? I used to think I understood what was going on. But I'm now completely of the opinion that I haven't got a clue how this fri&&ing thing is gonna play out. Printing money has fried my brain. Nothing makes sense. Only thing I still suspect, is that the bond market is the key. If that goes. The whole thing goes down..... .....I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 commercial buyers rather than retail, they might start luring in the retail investor about 5% from its top ready to leave them holding the baby or it might crash now, its just it would be extremely unusual for the media to forecast a crash so i dont see it happening yet I think were near a FTSE top, very likely in the pump phase with a dump comming soon. The next dire economic statistic from here or the US, any further PIGS default rumbles with send it back down to low 5000 5100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_James Toney_* Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 IMHO the stock market will not crash, it will rise, or be very stable, people wil lbe getting out of property and in shares they got to put money somewhere, so i think shares will be a good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 6, 2010 Author Share Posted September 6, 2010 commercial buyers rather than retail, they might start luring in the retail investor about 5% from its top ready to leave them holding the baby or it might crash now, its just it would be extremely unusual for the media to forecast a crash so i dont see it happening yet Interestng... so the commercial buyers drive up the market... Joe Public getting 0% on IRs sees the markets rise and decides to jump in only for the commercial buyers to sell, make a profit and, as the markets dive, Joe Public is screwed yet again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 Meaning? the Hindenburg Omen, and the Cross of Death Doomed I tell thee! Doomed I tell thee! Doomed I tell thee! Doomed I tell thee! Doomed I tell thee! Doomed I tell thee! Doomed I tell thee! Doomed............................... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 Aren't the low volumes on the Dow an indicator that most average investors have been spooked never to return (courtesy of HFT, Flash Crash, PPT )? its amazing the effect the thought of free money has,small investors will come back soon enough if the market goes up some more and there is a concerted media effort on the bull side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 IMHO the stock market will not crash, it will rise, or be very stable, people wil lbe getting out of property and in shares they got to put money somewhere, so i think shares will be a good. Don't worry they are going to be putting money somewhere, all of it across the tills to pay for the essentials at this rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 Interestng... so the commercial buyers drive up the market... Joe Public getting 0% on IRs sees the markets rise and decides to jump in only for the commercial buyers to sell, make a profit and, as the markets dive, Joe Public is screwed yet again? I'm not convinced most professional investors are that clever - but most amateurs really are that dumb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 Interestng... so the commercial buyers drive up the market... Joe Public getting 0% on IRs sees the markets rise and decides to jump in only for the commercial buyers to sell, make a profit and, as the markets dive, Joe Public is screwed yet again? thats pretty much the tried and tested formula Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 6, 2010 Author Share Posted September 6, 2010 I think were near a FTSE top, very likely in the pump phase with a dump comming soon. The next dire economic statistic from here or the US, any further PIGS default rumbles with send it back down to low 5000 5100. What do you mean by pump phase - is that your own term or a market term? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_ringledman_* Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 (edited) Most posters on here talk so much rubbish about the stock market. Stock market returns are not correlated to economic growth. In many cases stockmarkets perform better under poor economic growth periods as the price well reflects reality. Likewise, with a bunch of muppets running the world's central banks you can bet on the price of the markets continuing to rise. Negative interest rartes for the next decade. Get used to it bond lovers! Edited September 6, 2010 by ringledman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 6, 2010 Author Share Posted September 6, 2010 thats pretty much the tried and tested formula OK... So could the rises that we have seen in September be someone part of this? A concerted attempt to sucker Joe Public in? Could a small group of people 'at the top' - the banks perhaps - organise this? Or is that the stuff of Hollywood? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 I think were near a FTSE top, very likely in the pump phase with a dump comming soon. The next dire economic statistic from here or the US, any further PIGS default rumbles with send it back down to low 5000 5100. well id tend to agree , i think we are near a top (this side of xmas) and whilst im bullish at the moment when it does turn i think it will go sub 1k, but who knows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandora's box Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 (edited) its amazing the effect the thought of free money has,small investors will come back soon enough if the market goes up some more and there is a concerted media effort on the bull side I disagree. Small investors aren't seeing the free money - they've had their fingers burnt once too often and are wising up fast thanks to Zero Hedge and the internet in general . Large investors are seeing the free 'funny money', but are dancing while the music plays - they know the score (if you'll excuse the pun). Edited September 6, 2010 by pandora's box Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_ringledman_* Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 I think were near a FTSE top, very likely in the pump phase with a dump comming soon. The next dire economic statistic from here or the US, any further PIGS default rumbles with send it back down to low 5000 5100. The only asset class experiencing a 'pump phase' is the bond bubble. Equities are not in a bubble. They topped out a decade ago. P/E valuations have been regressing to the mean for ten years. The dumping will be of government confetti paper that has been in a bull market since yields hit 15% in 1981. Buy an asset that has gone up for 29 years or buy one that has gone down for a decade??? Then again most people prefer to buy high and sell low... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 6, 2010 Author Share Posted September 6, 2010 well id tend to agree , i think we are near a top (this side of xmas) and whilst im bullish at the moment when it does turn i think it will go sub 1k, but who knows Is that a typo? Do you mean FTSE drop by 1K? Not go below 1K surely? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.