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The Masked Tulip

Housing Market Is Dead In Swansea

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A nice anecdotal that I think is worth sharing with the main forum.

I was speaking to an experienced EA last night and he came straight out and told me that "the housing market is dead in Swansea".

He was pretty fed up, frustrated and told me straight that it was now a buyers' market, that I had a choice of housing and that nearly 600 properties have come on the market in the mast 21 days in Swansea.

He went on to say that there was a huge gulf between what the few buyers were offering - often 20% below asking - and what the sellers wanted. But mostly the sellers were refusing the offers thinking they would get better but failing to understand how few buyers are out there at the moment.

He admitted that some in his own line of work - i.e. other EAs - had stupidly talked up asking prices so much, that there was now such a gap between what the sellers expected and what the house was actually worth, and what the banks would lend, that most houses were having few if any viewings.

Despite few or no viewings, he said, people still refused to drop their asking prices. Gave me an example of one seller who wants 400K for a house he thought was worth 270K at best and he had to spend a month getting them to drop the asking price by 2K.

He said there were no longer floods of people from London buying in the area and that many of the sellers were actually Londoners selling second homes or high up Council staff selling. He said that something big must be on the cards if so many top Council workers were now putting their houses on the market.

(This seems to be true as I was just looking at two identical houses in roads next to each other which have both come onto the market recently - one has an asking price of circa 250K, the other has circa 370K for its asking price and, if anything, the 250Kish house looks the much nicer. Both on with the same EA as well.)

He admitted that he would not buy now with the current asking prices and advised me to hold off as he felt it was inevitable that prices would tumble considerably in the coming months.

He said that he knew of "many properties in Swansea West which have now been on the market for 4 or 5 years", but which don't sell due to the asking price being way too much, but more and more houses with similar asking prices are now flooding the market thinking they will sell within weeks. He said that "they have no idea".

He said that there were plenty of sellers who are still dictating the asking price and he thought that this was due to the people needing the full asking price to pay off debt as, in his words, "they will never sell for anywhere near asking price".

He said that what few sellers there are are now using the internet to check the land registry prices when the house last sold.

This seemed to be beared out this morning when I was looking in an EA's window in Mumbles (Swansea West)

Firstly, there was a woman standing there looking in the window who could afford 180K and she was not prepared to go and look at a house in the area she wanted with an asking price of 190K. I asked her why and told her to put in an offer at 20% below asking to which she replied "Oh, I couldn't do that!".

Anyhow, there was a chap standing next to us, in his late 60s to early 70s, and he, out of the blue, said "No one is buying. Prices are too high" and then he really, really surprised me by saying "Go and type snake and Swansea house prices into google and that will show you all the falls!". He walked off.

I assume me meant propertysnake so even the silver surfers are aware of the bubble in Swansea asking prices! :lol::lol::lol:

So there you have it. OK, this is just one EA who works for one of the bigger chains in Swansea but he was brutally open and seemingly honest about what he perceived the state of the market locally to be in. He seemed, IMPO, very tired and fed up with it all.

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Swansea on rightmove

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^1305&sortByPriceDescending=true

931 properties found inc SSTC

815 properties found

Compare with here Chadderton

413 properties found exclusing SSTC

467 properties found inc SSTC

Looks about the same % SSTC as here (12 vs 15)

Edited by SarahBell

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Strange isn't it - an article in the news blog (I think I saw it there) said the number of houses sold in Wales in August was 5 million times more than July and that everything in the garden is rosy.

When will this endless ramping in the media stop I wonder.

Edit. Here's the link

Edited by Let's get it right

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Strange isn't it - an article in the news blog (I think I saw it there) said the number of houses sold in Wales in August was 5 million times more than July and that everything in the garden is rosy.

When will this endless ramping in the media stop I wonder.

Edit. Here's the link

For months now the Western Mail online has had a link on their home page 'Confidence grows in housing market' in a very prominent position. It only disappeared this week after the Nationwide figures came out.

I don't recall seeing many, if any, negative housing article in it for a long, long time.

The Swansea Evening Post last night ran a story that the number of FTBs in Wales had fallen to its lowest recorded number ever and that the number was less than half required for a healthy housing market.

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I think we are at the end of the "de-nile" phase, watching this kick in is going to be a joy. I wonder if this cause the banks to go "REPO" & turn on BTL's ?

Mike

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When it cross the 12 month moving average next month at about Pds.166,000 (probably), it will be hard to deny it,

since that means we will soon be headed towards negative y-o-y figures

I think some EAs might be coming to the end of the denial but perhaps not all - and I suspect most sellers are still living in denial land?

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Something clearly has changed.. it seems we are ripe for the second leg down.

The original warmup 15% or so down was enough that a few odd people were found who still weren't 'all in'. And they jumped at the dip to get in. But now that small demand of buyers is all used up.

Sorry but 20 somethings making £6 or £7 an hour in the new economy just aren't going to be bidding for home anytime soon.. or ever.

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Something clearly has changed.. it seems we are ripe for the second leg down.

The original warmup 15% or so down was enough that a few odd people were found who still weren't 'all in'. And they jumped at the dip to get in. But now that small demand of buyers is all used up.

Sorry but 20 somethings making £6 or £7 an hour in the new economy just aren't going to be bidding for home anytime soon.. or ever.

yes, i did some pretty hardcore analysis of the swansea market taking into account the future opportunity cost of living there and came up with a fair average house price of 12p and a curly wurly

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A nice anecdotal that I think is worth sharing with the main forum.

I was speaking to an experienced EA last night and he came straight out and told me that "the housing market is dead in Swansea".

He was pretty fed up, frustrated and told me straight that it was now a buyers' market, that I had a choice of housing and that nearly 600 properties have come on the market in the mast 21 days in Swansea.

He went on to say that there was a huge gulf between what the few buyers were offering - often 20% below asking - and what the sellers wanted. But mostly the sellers were refusing the offers thinking they would get better but failing to understand how few buyers are out there at the moment.

He admitted that some in his own line of work - i.e. other EAs - had stupidly talked up asking prices so much, that there was now such a gap between what the sellers expected and what the house was actually worth, and what the banks would lend, that most houses were having few if any viewings.

Despite few or no viewings, he said, people still refused to drop their asking prices. Gave me an example of one seller who wants 400K for a house he thought was worth 270K at best and he had to spend a month getting them to drop the asking price by 2K.

He said there were no longer floods of people from London buying in the area and that many of the sellers were actually Londoners selling second homes or high up Council staff selling. He said that something big must be on the cards if so many top Council workers were now putting their houses on the market.

(This seems to be true as I was just looking at two identical houses in roads next to each other which have both come onto the market recently - one has an asking price of circa 250K, the other has circa 370K for its asking price and, if anything, the 250Kish house looks the much nicer. Both on with the same EA as well.)

He admitted that he would not buy now with the current asking prices and advised me to hold off as he felt it was inevitable that prices would tumble considerably in the coming months.

He said that he knew of "many properties in Swansea West which have now been on the market for 4 or 5 years", but which don't sell due to the asking price being way too much, but more and more houses with similar asking prices are now flooding the market thinking they will sell within weeks. He said that "they have no idea".

He said that there were plenty of sellers who are still dictating the asking price and he thought that this was due to the people needing the full asking price to pay off debt as, in his words, "they will never sell for anywhere near asking price".

He said that what few sellers there are are now using the internet to check the land registry prices when the house last sold.

This seemed to be beared out this morning when I was looking in an EA's window in Mumbles (Swansea West)

Firstly, there was a woman standing there looking in the window who could afford 180K and she was not prepared to go and look at a house in the area she wanted with an asking price of 190K. I asked her why and told her to put in an offer at 20% below asking to which she replied "Oh, I couldn't do that!".

Anyhow, there was a chap standing next to us, in his late 60s to early 70s, and he, out of the blue, said "No one is buying. Prices are too high" and then he really, really surprised me by saying "Go and type snake and Swansea house prices into google and that will show you all the falls!". He walked off.

I assume me meant propertysnake so even the silver surfers are aware of the bubble in Swansea asking prices! :lol::lol::lol:

So there you have it. OK, this is just one EA who works for one of the bigger chains in Swansea but he was brutally open and seemingly honest about what he perceived the state of the market locally to be in. He seemed, IMPO, very tired and fed up with it all.

The thing is - even though everything is unfolding as you expected resisting the force of group pressure is incredibly tough - isn't it?

I think I would have expired with worry had it not been for HPC. I was forced to sell (owing to relocation) September last year and had lots of people telling me that I should jump back in quickly or never own a home again. Intellectually I knew that we were in a bubble but getting my heart to believe it was another matter. :(

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I was speaking to an experienced EA last night and he came straight out and told me that "the housing market is dead in Swansea".

He was pretty fed up, frustrated and told me straight that it was now a buyers' market, that I had a choice of housing and that nearly 600 properties have come on the market in the mast 21 days in Swansea.

He went on to say that there was a huge gulf between what the few buyers were offering - often 20% below asking - and what the sellers wanted. But mostly the sellers were refusing the offers thinking they would get better but failing to understand how few buyers are out there at the moment.

He admitted that some in his own line of work - i.e. other EAs - had stupidly talked up asking prices so much, that there was now such a gap between what the sellers expected and what the house was actually worth, and what the banks would lend, that most houses were having few if any viewings.

Despite few or no viewings, he said, people still refused to drop their asking prices. Gave me an example of one seller who wants 400K for a house he thought was worth 270K at best and he had to spend a month getting them to drop the asking price by 2K.

If I knew there were any estate agents like that out there I could just about be tempted to dip my toe in the water. As it is I daren't set foot in an agency for fear that the resulting cognitive dissonance would be so intense as to lead to a serious disturbance of some physical or metaphysical nature.

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The thing is - even though everything is unfolding as you expected resisting the force of group pressure is incredibly tough - isn't it?

I think I would have expired with worry had it not been for HPC. I was forced to sell (owing to relocation) September last year and had lots of people telling me that I should jump back in quickly or never own a home again. Intellectually I knew that we were in a bubble but getting my heart to believe it was another matter. :(

Playing a long game, the market rewards the prudent eventually

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Despite few or no viewings, he said, people still refused to drop their asking prices. Gave me an example of one seller who wants 400K for a house he thought was worth 270K at best and he had to spend a month getting them to drop the asking price by 2K.

Thanks for the update TMT.

However, I suppose, if there is no rush to sell, it is always worth trying it on just in case one is lucky enough to have one or two who have to buy (getting married etc) who happen to look for houses within their budget, no matter how overpriced it is (so, look for £180k house when they can afford £180k even if the £180k is a 2 bed flat).

I suppose it is a bit like selling overpriced stuffs on ebay, once in while, one gets lucky (Except that ebay charges a listing fee while agents don't !)

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If I knew there were any estate agents like that out there I could just about be tempted to dip my toe in the water. As it is I daren't set foot in an agency for fear that the resulting cognitive dissonance would be so intense as to lead to a serious disturbance of some physical or metaphysical nature.

I told him I was prepared to buy today at 20% off asking price of numerous properties in S'sea. Not prepared to pay a penny more.

Alas, as he commented, the sellers think they are going to get their full asking prices so denial just goes on and on.

I was talking to some Doctors tonight about some of the things going on in hospitals near me and their advice was not to get ill or old in this country. Emmigrating was advised.

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The attitude ("I want full asking price") will get chipped away:

1/ Properties will not sell, and EA's will lose interest in helping those vendors with "unrealistic" prices

2/ EA's will begin talking prices down (in conversations with vendors)

3/ More and more bearish headlines will show up in the press

The Market will seek the level that permits the most business activity (ie property sales), and that means LOWER prices

== ==

Tell him:

"Someone on my website said: The Job of the Estate Agent in a falling market is to talk the sellers down.

Are you willing to do your job? If not, I will find a agent who is." (you might put the point more politely.)

Finally, BE PATIENT.

It takes time to turn the Titanic. It is turning, but is not yet full speed ahead for falling prices.

Crash Cruise speed is coming. and it will take many months to whack off 20%, if the market

slides at 1-2% per month.

A lot of people do not appreciate the momentum aspect. Once we start moving the other direction, just how long it could go on and how far we could go.

Arguably housing has been heading up in price for 40 years, in a giant bull market. It could head down for 40 years too. Houses increased something like 100 times in price since the mid-60's. Inflation over the period made 1 pound then worth 14.43 today according to the BoE inflation calculator.

Still that is a 700% rise adjusted for inflation. And a 10,000% rise with inflation included!

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Here's a chart from "elsewhere" that may be interesting here:

Briefly:

It looks to me like we just had a "fake out" bounce on light volume, and the NEXT LEG DOWN

is about to begin. If it breaks the recent lows with high volume, that should be a clear signal IMHO.

The more complete explanations are longer than I can/or want to post in this thread.

The old bull trap part of the equity bubble stages.. right on schedule.

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The thing is - even though everything is unfolding as you expected resisting the force of group pressure is incredibly tough - isn't it?

I think I would have expired with worry had it not been for HPC. I was forced to sell (owing to relocation) September last year and had lots of people telling me that I should jump back in quickly or never own a home again. Intellectually I knew that we were in a bubble but getting my heart to believe it was another matter. :(

I think even the most highly qualified bears here would admit to a few sleepless nights in recent years. This forum has been both utterly fascinating and a great source of comfort when doubts have crept in. This very thread is a classic example. Reading the stats posted yesterday about the 'booming' Welsh market was frustrating and unsettling, but then this morning comes TMT's anecdotal which makes you realise you've just been suckered by more VI ramping. I have no idea where those stats came from or how they've been distorted - or even IF they've been distorted - but it just takes one honest EA to relay the truth on the ground. And the truth is? We've had the first dip, we've had the 'return to normal' and now we are at the start of the second leg down.

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A lot of people do not appreciate the momentum aspect. Once we start moving the other direction, just how long it could go on and how far we could go.

Arguably housing has been heading up in price for 40 years, in a giant bull market. It could head down for 40 years too. Houses increased something like 100 times in price since the mid-60's. Inflation over the period made 1 pound then worth 14.43 today according to the BoE inflation calculator.

Still that is a 700% rise adjusted for inflation. And a 10,000% rise with inflation included!

Oh yes we have momentum in the inability to even afford loans even at these record low rates.

The UK is ALL LOANED OUT.

ITS ONLY LOANS THAT SUPPORT THESE HOUSE PRICE LEVELS.

And a consequence of being loaned out in both personal, business and government is that there is a reluctance to borrow such amounts. The BoE are trying to encourage real lending in real wealth production, but it appears only the weak are up for it...and banks dont want to know them.

Government is tackling the deficit...so they say, but even this lot are nowhere near tackling the DEBT mountain...which with every month of deficit, just gets larger....then there is the personal spender....petrol up, fares up, food, up, yet wages stagnant.....less to spend on loans.

And lastly, the Pig in the Poke, the Public Sector, bloated, overpaid and over benefitted, is by force of debt and voters, being culled.

Finance on housing is truly Evil. And I mean that in a religious sense. Armageddom has arrived for this blot on humanity, but governments think they can overcome the God of the Market.

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I think even the most highly qualified bears here would admit to a few sleepless nights in recent years. This forum has been both utterly fascinating and a great source of comfort when doubts have crept in. This very thread is a classic example. Reading the stats posted yesterday about the 'booming' Welsh market was frustrating and unsettling, but then this morning comes TMT's anecdotal which makes you realise you've just been suckered by more VI ramping. I have no idea where those stats came from or how they've been distorted - or even IF they've been distorted - but it just takes one honest EA to relay the truth on the ground. And the truth is? We've had the first dip, we've had the 'return to normal' and now we are at the start of the second leg down.

What stats are these for Wales?

The only stuff I have seen for Wales this week are that the number of FTBs has fallen more in Wales than anywhere else plus various anecdotal stories in places like bloomberg stating public sector places liek Wales will fair worse in a housing slump.

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Exactly.

All we need now is the slide, averaging perhaps -1% per month or more, lasting for 2-3 years,

and we will see a nice SECOND LEG DOWN in the Housing Market

The Stock charts (like the one above) are a good CHECKpoint, against the lies from the VI's.

Of course, they would deny they have any meaning, but the facts show that the charts do work.

I remember that poster giving you a really hard time back in March (sorry - I don't have time to look up the thread). He was scathing about your forecasting - I wonder where he is now?

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Oh yes we have momentum in the inability to even afford loans even at these record low rates.

The UK is ALL LOANED OUT.

ITS ONLY LOANS THAT SUPPORT THESE HOUSE PRICE LEVELS.

And a consequence of being loaned out in both personal, business and government is that there is a reluctance to borrow such amounts. The BoE are trying to encourage real lending in real wealth production, but it appears only the weak are up for it...and banks dont want to know them.

Government is tackling the deficit...so they say, but even this lot are nowhere near tackling the DEBT mountain...which with every month of deficit, just gets larger....then there is the personal spender....petrol up, fares up, food, up, yet wages stagnant.....less to spend on loans.

And lastly, the Pig in the Poke, the Public Sector, bloated, overpaid and over benefitted, is by force of debt and voters, being culled.

Finance on housing is truly Evil. And I mean that in a religious sense. Armageddom has arrived for this blot on humanity, but governments think they can overcome the God of the Market.

Its music to my ears that someone else perceives the spiritual aspect of all this.

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To add a little anecdote into the mix. A colleague was talking to an estate agent in my part of the world and he informed her that a house has been languishing on the market at £120k when an offer was put in for 78k. The offer was accepted on the agents recommendation.

The tide does seem to be turning.

Edited by Mr. Miyagi

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  • 194 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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