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Halifax Hpi - August.....merged

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I have a contact in the Halifax/Lloyds Group and he hinted that drop for August could be around -1.5%. It is officially released early next week.

This could be the start of the winter of discontent :P

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I have a contact in the Halifax/Lloyds Group and he hinted that drop for August could be around -1.5%. It is officially released early next week.

This could be the start of the winter of discontent :P

I would love that to be true. Halifax is normally more pessimistic than nationwide but last month threw a spanner in the works.

How reliable is this contact I would have thought the only people to know it would be those involved in it's compilation.

Edited by Pent Up

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i think it'll be a big fall.

my reasoning:

(1) - i do believe house prices are falling;

(2) - the july halifax showed a small rise, which i put down to measurement error given (1)

(3) - i think we'll be a very long way (e.g. 1-1.5%) below june now;

(4) and therefore 1.5%-2% below july.

Edited by the flying pig

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Given that Halifax posted a 0.6% rise in July, a 1.5% fall in August would be a real decline, in their terms, of 0.9% - exactly what the Nationwide came out with.

That 0.6% rise they quoted for July annoyingly helped many media commentators paint a mixed picture. Let's hope for a clearer signal (downwards!) this time.

Good news that the Nationwide and Halifax figures weren't out on consecutive days. Assuming Halifax shows a fall, that would be another round of much needed reality check coverage in the media!

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Given that Halifax posted a 0.6% rise in July, a 1.5% fall in August would be a real decline, in their terms, of 0.9% - exactly what the Nationwide came out with.

That 0.6% rise they quoted for July annoyingly helped many media commentators paint a mixed picture. Let's hope for a clearer signal (downwards!) this time.

Good news that the Nationwide and Halifax figures weren't out on consecutive days. Assuming Halifax shows a fall, that would be another round of much needed reality check coverage in the media!

Yes but everybody was on holiday in August and it rained a lot. Plus we are still seeing the effects of the World Cup and the ash cloud. And don't forget it snowed in January. All of this pent up demand will be released in the September buying frenzy.

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As "Halifax" is kind of owned by Dave Cameron, is there not a chance that Dave gets to chose the HPI figure? Given that the outcome is market sensitive and that the government has £28 biilion in HBOS shares it would be odd if there was not some political interest in the derivation of this number. If the national interest is at stake why should they not lie. We now know that British estimates of German losses in the Battle of Britain were inflated for propaganda purposes. What's to stop Halifax posting a 2% rise?

Edited by ingermany

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Well I doubt that is going to happen as all the figures are audited and send to the BOE etc.

Plus, it's in Camerons interest to get the price of housing down quickly so everything is looking more 'positive' when the next election comes around!

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"And fairness extends across the generations, for what is fair about forcing the next generation to pay for the debts of our generation?" George Osborne , 17-Aug-2010

Let it correct!

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I would love that to be true. Halifax is normally more pessimistic than nationwide but last month threw a spanner in the works.

How reliable is this contact I would have thought the only people to know it would be those involved in it's compilation.

I heard once that Halifax has a "northern bias" and Nationwide a "southern bias".

But I am not sure if the source was correct - some "commentator" on the telly. Should be double checked.

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I heard once that Halifax has a "northern bias" and Nationwide a "southern bias".

But I am not sure if the source was correct - some "commentator" on the telly. Should be double checked.

http://www.acadametr...x%20Monitor.pdf My bold:

4.4 Different price calculations

Not only do index providers use different price data, they calculate an "average" price differently. Halifax, Nationwide, CLG and LR all employ the concept of a standardised price (see 4.6), being the past price of a "standard" house (assessed in the case of the Halifax in 1983) which is updated according to the index. Note that different results from Halifax are sometimes attributed to a northern loan base. However, this is no longer likely to be the case and any such bias could be the result of the 1983 basis for the hedonic attributes, when a northern emphasis would have existed.

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Bring back Gordon he never did any of that.

If things pan out as they probably will - with a prolonged, gradual fall in the housing market and a generally deteriorating economy - before the next election Gordon Brown will be spoken of with reverence. 'At least he did something to avert disaster, the current lot have just sat on their hands and let things get worse'.

He will yet be regarded as the elder statesman of British politics.

Whereas Blair, in 20 years time, will be in a nuthouse.

Edited by Let's get it right

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I see that the Halifax survey for August house prices has now been delayed again until Wednesday or Thursday (it was supposed to be out Monday 6th). Wonder what's causing the delay? Do they have something to hide perhaps???

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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