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Marc Faber And Peter Schiff Take On The Bond Bulls; The Rosenberg-Faber Gentlemen's Bet

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I bet multi millionaires like these are hedged either way.

Yes gold for any future bear market.

Equities for any future bull market.

Only fixed income held in Asian bonds, corporate bonds, asian currencies, commodity currencies.

Edited by ringledman

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Yes gold for any future bear market.

Equities for any future bull market.

Only fixed income held in Asian bonds, corporate bonds, asian currencies, commodity currencies.

Although I've taken some money off the table in the last week, I have made decent returns on US and UK bonds recently. You seem to think it impossible that 10 year treasuries or gilts could drop to Japan like rates, but I'm not so sure. And with bond gains like that and solid gold prices and equities that defy gravity it has been a surprisingly good summer.

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Although I've taken some money off the table in the last week, I have made decent returns on US and UK bonds recently. You seem to think it impossible that 10 year treasuries or gilts could drop to Japan like rates, but I'm not so sure. And with bond gains like that and solid gold prices and equities that defy gravity it has been a surprisingly good summer.

I'm not saying it is impossible that bond yields hit 1% but I believe the % odds to be low.

We have had a 29 year bond bull run. We are clearly in the bubble, euphoria stage. Bonds are getting way too much good press. There is little pessimism around bonds.

If yields are to hit 1% I believe it will happen fairly quickly on the basis that the bond bull run is clearly in its late stage. As a long term investor I don't want high risk by purchasing an asset yielding 2-3% with inflation at a higher rate.

Likewise the bond yields are now 1/6 what the were at the start of the bond secular bull run. This is a bubble that will pop at some point. Perhaps not immediately but a Japan scenario is unlikely.

As I have previously posted, the fundamentals affecting Japan in 1990 are so polar to the UK and USA now. Fundamentals eventually win out over the general public's naivety over asset allocation.

Edited by ringledman

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Although I've taken some money off the table in the last week, I have made decent returns on US and UK bonds recently. You seem to think it impossible that 10 year treasuries or gilts could drop to Japan like rates, but I'm not so sure. And with bond gains like that and solid gold prices and equities that defy gravity it has been a surprisingly good summer.

How does an individual buy US and UK bonds?

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This is an interesting factoid about the performance of bonds over the last 30 years

$100 invested in a 25-year zero coupon bond at the yield high in October 1981, and rolling it into another 25-year zero coupon bond annually to maintain its 25-maturity, would have grown to $16,695 by June 2010 with a compounded annual return of 19.5%. In contrast, $100 invested in the S&P 500 at its low in July 1982, was worth $1,997 in June 2010 with dividends reinvested to provide an annual return of 11.2%. So Treasuries outperformed stocks by 8.4 times! Even in the 80’s and 90’s long dated Treasuries way outperformed stocks, during a period which recorded the longest and the strongest bull market on record”

a similar thing could be said to have happened to houses , which were yielding close to the same as bonds in the 80's and still are , a house rented behaves very much like a long term bond , it costs you to maintain but you also get inflation proofing to some degree ...

However this movement in the bond market spanning a whole generation is a one off unrepeatable again shift unless things blow up big time and reset ! I think the japanese are 20 years ahead of us all and for housing the game is up ! prices will now drop and never recover .......

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  • 152 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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