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Us Jobs Report Delivers Positive Surprise For Anxious Markets

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7979952/US-jobs-report-delivers-positive-surprise-for-anxious-markets.html

US employers hired more workers than expected last month, new figures showed, in a rare bright spot during a summer dominated by signs that the economic recovery is losing steam.

Private employers added 67,000 workers during the month, a widely-awaited report from the US Labor Department showed on Friday.

The revisions for both overall job losses and those just in the private sector in July were also better than expected.

Wall Street and European bourses were left by the figures with the Dow Jones rising 1.2pc, the S&P 500 1.3pc, London's FTSE 100 1.46pc, Germany's DAX 1.2pc and France's CAC 1.7pc.

However, the world's biggest economy overall lost 54,000 jobs last month, the majority of which came from an end to temporary hiring undertaken by the government to conduct a census. Economists had forecasted a loss of about 100,000 jobs in the month.

The unemployment rate climbed to 9.6pc from 9.5pc.

A sputtering recovery has dominated the summer in the US and, so far, has made little dent in the scale of unemployment caused by the recession.

President Obama, whose opinion poll rating on his handling of the economy is at a record low, is reported to be considering a new stimulus package to accelerate growth. The Federal Reserve, too, has been under pressure to look at new measures to prop up the recovery.

More clean signs that the economy is stalling yet the computers on the trading floor love it.

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Its the usual overestimating of bad news than when it comes in not as bad

BIngo.

pile in to stocks everything now great, the sun is shining, Browns gone.

Then reality kicks in and we've all been conned again

Sell

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http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165896

Well well well... now we get this from the "Bureau of Lies and Slime"

Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-54,000) in August, and the unemployment rate was about unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment fell, as 114,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67,000).

Meh. "Better than expected" however, and so the market roars. Did 'ya get delta neutral before the release? Smart if you did. C'mon guys, these aren't "great" numbers, we need 150,000 a month to just keep even!

U-6, which includes discouraged workers, rose to 16.7% (seasonally adjusted), after being flat last month and the "headline" unemployment number edged up 0.1% to 9.6%.

Here's the top-line charts:

There was a disturbing occurrence though - either I picked up bad numbers from the household survey last month, or there was a silent revision to them. This is important because unlike the "B" tables (which include the guess of how many small businesses were created or destroyed) the "A" tables are allegedly actual counts and are never revised.

But it appears they were - downward - in both the employed and the not-in-labor force numbers. Civilian population remained unchanged. This has the effect of creating jobs that didn't actually exist this month after having created jobs that didn't actually exist last month!

Hmmmm.....

Anyway, here's the graphs as they are and "as reported" this month - for whatever it's worth.

This is the "big daddy" table, and it shows that we're basically flat at this point, neither gaining or losing, on an employed basis compared to a year ago. The problem here is that you need to add about 2 million jobs a year to actually keep even, so we're in fact still going backward.

"Not in labor force", after having dove for several months, is now starting to creep up again a bit. That's expected, but it doesn't move the needle much - so far.

What I also don't like is this:

That's a problem - note the little hook down? The actual percentage of people who are employed .vs. the civilian labor force available to be employed (that is, non-incarcerated working-age people) hasn't budged materially, and after the small indications of improvement, it is now headed back downward.

So we're now back to where we were in June of 2009 in this regard - more than a year later, and after tentative signs of improvement. Wow, I'm impressed. NOT!

Here's reality - we cannot close the budget deficit gap until and unless this improves. We certainly cannot maintain the economic stimulus that comes from our deficit spending with 59% of the labor force actually working. Not a prayer in hell. In fact, until we get back to 63-64% we cannot solve the budget problem at all!

To put this in hard numbers we need to add over 11 million jobs to close this gap.

The mainstream media and "economists" aren't focusing on this but I sure as hell have been for the last two years, and will continue to. This is the "Greece" problem coming straight at us at 90mph, in that as social spending demand continues unabated the tax base is inadequate to support those demands, no matter what you do with tax rates and giveaways.

We need serious and dramatic changes in macro level economic policy folks, not incremental changes and give-aways. I know these things are anathema to the Washington establishment, but all we're doing right now is marking time until the deficits that are and remain structural become unable to be funded.

Last evening I posted a long missive on a set of fiscal policy prescriptions that would address this problem. There is no evidence that anyone in Washington DC has or will take these seriously, but if we don't, the claims of "recovery" that you've been hearing are going to have the staying power of a big snort of cocaine - powerful "in your face" rallies in the market for a while on the back of promises made in the mainstream media, but those promises will not be able to be fulfilled.

Charts at the link.

Dennigers take on the figures.

So after all the stimulus to build a sustainable recovery the jobless numbers in the US haven't move in a year.

Excellent value for money, no doubt Obama will announce more useless measures over the coming weeks before the mid terms to try and convince the Americans he knows what he's doing.

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Private employers added 67,000 workers during the month, a widely-awaited report from the US Labor Department showed on Friday.

Many are likely to be temp staff called up to help produce , pack , sell , deliver , etc. consumer tat for thanks giving and xmas .........

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The interesting thing is that the Fed historically only raises rates twelve months after unemployment reverses. That's the point Calculated Risk keeps hammering home.

If latest news about services in the US is borne out, then unemployment should rise again. Have to wait until the spring to see what the fall out is.

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These non-farm payroll numbers are practically worthless on a month to month basis due to the statistical chicanery that goes into producing them.

Better to look at weekly initial jobless claims which seem to have bottomed at a number that used to be considered recessionary.

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The interesting thing is that the Fed historically only raises rates twelve months after unemployment reverses. That's the point Calculated Risk keeps hammering home.

If latest news about services in the US is borne out, then unemployment should rise again. Have to wait until the spring to see what the fall out is.

Time for the banks to build up lots of cheap leverage making the Feds decision to move rates even more difficult then.

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These non-farm payroll numbers are practically worthless on a month to month basis due to the statistical chicanery that goes into producing them.

Better to look at weekly initial jobless claims which seem to have bottomed at a number that used to be considered recessionary.

All news management - the employment position was worse, but not as bad as deliberately touted in advance.

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  • 152 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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