Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Realistbear

Houses Are Now "falling £90 A Day"

Recommended Posts

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1308263/House-prices-fall-August-sees-slump-second-consecutive-month.html

Fresh fears for property market as average house house price slumped by £2,850 in August
By Becky "Rebecca" Barrow
Last updated at 12:16 AM on 3rd September 2010
Comments (114,987)
House prices are falling by more than
£90 a day
amid fears that Britain is heading into a double-dip housing recession.

Now, that is what I call GOOD news! :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.dailymail...tive-month.html

Fresh fears for property market as average house house price slumped by £2,850 in August
By Becky "Rebecca" Barrow
Last updated at 12:16 AM on 3rd September 2010
Comments (114,987)
House prices are falling by more than
£90 a day
amid fears that Britain is heading into a double-dip housing recession.

Now, that is what I call GOOD news! :D

I thought they "slumped" .9% thats gotta be less than £1600......

or maybe, like the salaries are all £80K, the average house is £250K in DM world.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Falling £90 a day, not £91? -- Yes - U sure? - Yes - Phew, that's ok then.

" House Price Rises Are Easing"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1308263/House-prices-fall-August-sees-slump-second-consecutive-month.html

Fresh fears for property market as average house house price slumped by £2,850 in August
By Becky "Rebecca" Barrow
Last updated at 12:16 AM on 3rd September 2010
Comments (114,987)
House prices are falling by more than
£90 a day
amid fears that Britain is heading into a double-dip housing recession.

Now, that is what I call GOOD news! :D

Yep same headline in current bun this morning

Slowly breaking it to the sheeple

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought they "slumped" .9% thats gotta be less than £1600......

or maybe, like the salaries are all £80K, the average house is £250K in DM world.

NSA vs SA and all that....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought they "slumped" .9% thats gotta be less than £1600......

or maybe, like the salaries are all £80K, the average house is £250K in DM world.

0.9% was the seasonally adjusted figure. The average dropped by £2,800, but the sa percentage change is only 0.9% fall!

Edit: corrected size of monthly drop

Edited by Caveat Mortgagor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0.9% was the seasonally adjusted figure. The average dropped by £2,800, but the sa percentage change is only 0.9% fall!

Edit: corrected size of monthly drop

thanks guys for helping me and my confusion.

Ive just told my bank that the SA adjusted overdraft should be 0, and not the £12,000 it is today.

Im sure they are going to pay heed and realise their mistake, as i did.

I expect Christmas to be a seasonally adjusted balmy 22C this year. No wonder the global warmalists got it all wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

thanks guys for helping me and my confusion.

Ive just told my bank that the SA adjusted overdraft should be 0, and not the £12,000 it is today.

Im sure they are going to pay heed and realise their mistake, as i did.

I expect Christmas to be a seasonally adjusted balmy 22C this year. No wonder the global warmalists got it all wrong.

+ 1

This "seasonally adjusting" may need a little investigation.

I've tried to find their methodology, but I've found just the summary below

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/methodology.htm

"Seasonal Adjustment

House prices are slightly seasonal - that is, prices are higher at certain times of year irrespective of the overall trend. This tends to be in spring and summer, when more buyers are in the market and hence sellers do not need to discount prices so heavily, in order to achieve a sale. The effect on prices over the year is of the order of +/- 1.5%; however this is much smaller than the change in volume of property transactions. The seasonal effect is estimated each month using established statistical methods.

For the monthly house price index where changes can be as little as 0.1%, seasonal factors are important. The Nationwide therefore produce a seasonally adjusted series for UK house prices which seeks to remove this effect so that the overall trend in prices is more readily apparent.

Seasonal adjustment shows that June is generally the strongest month for house prices (raw prices are 1.3% above their SA level) and January is the weakest (raw prices are 1.5% below their SA level)."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(...)

SA adjusted

(...)

(Sorry I don't know how to paste a table here, and keep its formatting. Suggestions are welcomed.)

OK, I got Nationwide NOT monthly adjusted HPs, and, if I used my spreadsheet correctly, you will find below:

Date / Average HP / Monthly Change in £ / Monthly Change %

Jan-07 £173,225

Feb-07 £174,706 £1,481 0.85%

Mar-07 £177,083 £2,377 1.36%

Apr-07 £180,314 £3,232 1.82%

May-07 £181,584 £1,270 0.70%

Jun-07 £184,070 £2,486 1.37%

Jul-07 £184,270 £200 0.11%

Aug-07 £183,898 -£371 -0.20%

Sep-07 £184,723 £825 0.45%

Oct-07 £186,044 £1,320 0.71% (All time Peak)

Nov-07 £184,099 -£1,945 -1.05%

Dec-07 £182,080 -£2,019 -1.10%

Jan-08 £180,473 -£1,606 -0.88%

Feb-08 £179,358 -£1,115 -0.62%

Mar-08 £179,110 -£248 -0.14%

Apr-08 £178,555 -£555 -0.31%

May-08 £173,583 -£4,972 -2.78%

Jun-08 £172,415 -£1,168 -0.67%

Jul-08 £169,316 -£3,099 -1.80%

Aug-08 £164,654 -£4,663 -2.75%

Sep-08 £161,797 -£2,857 -1.73%

Oct-08 £158,872 -£2,925 -1.81%

Nov-08 £158,442 -£430 -0.27%

Dec-08 £153,048 -£5,395 -3.40%

Jan-09 £150,501 -£2,547 -1.66%

Feb-09 £147,746 -£2,755 -1.83% (bottom since peak)

Mar-09 £150,946 £3,201 2.17%

Apr-09 £151,861 £915 0.61%

May-09 £154,016 £2,155 1.42%

Jun-09 £156,442 £2,426 1.58%

Jul-09 £158,871 £2,429 1.55%

Aug-09 £160,224 £1,353 0.85%

Sep-09 £161,816 £1,592 0.99%

Oct-09 £162,038 £222 0.14%

Nov-09 £162,764 £726 0.45%

Dec-09 £162,103 -£661 -0.41%

Jan-10 £163,481 £1,378 0.85%

Feb-10 £161,320 -£2,161 -1.32%

Mar-10 £164,519 £3,199 1.98%

Apr-10 £167,802 £3,283 2.00%

May-10 £169,162 £1,360 0.81%

Jun-10 £170,111 £949 0.56% (second peak)

Jul-10 £169,347 -£764 -0.45%

Aug-10 £166,507 -£2,840 -1.68%

Edit:

So we are now 2.13% below the second peak, in June 2010.

And still 12.7% above the Feb 2009 bottom.

The fall should be fast from now onwards, particularly until the spring 2011. Then it may slow down a little, but should keep falling. Possibly accelerating again in the following Year.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That picture is pure ironic genius

ironic and possibly iconic too, summing up an era fairly nicely.

the tragic thing [well, one of very many tragic things] is that there was supposedly a 'bidding war' for the pair of them between Ch4 and the BBC only, what, 6-9 months' after Phil's pwoperdee firm had gone under owing money to, inter alia, our taxpayer supported banks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ironic and possibly iconic too, summing up an era fairly nicely.

the tragic thing [well, one of very many tragic things] is that there was supposedly a 'bidding war' for the pair of them between Ch4 and the BBC only, what, 6-9 months' after Phil's pwoperdee firm had gone under owing money to, inter alia, our taxpayer supported banks.

Very good point TFP.

If we had decent journalism - competent and ethical - these people would be pressed every single day, until they decided to run away from the "public eye". They should be chased away, by a pack of competent and ethical journalists - if that existed... :rolleyes:

Instead we have paparazzi chasing celebrities... :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(Sorry I don't know how to paste a table here, and keep its formatting. Suggestions are welcomed.)

OK, I got Nationwide NOT monthly adjusted HPs, and, if I used my spreadsheet correctly, you will find below:

Date / Average HP / Monthly Change in £ / Monthly Change %

Jan-07 £173,225

Feb-07 £174,706 £1,481 0.85%

Mar-07 £177,083 £2,377 1.36%

Apr-07 £180,314 £3,232 1.82%

May-07 £181,584 £1,270 0.70%

Jun-07 £184,070 £2,486 1.37%

Jul-07 £184,270 £200 0.11%

Aug-07 £183,898 -£371 -0.20%

Sep-07 £184,723 £825 0.45%

Oct-07 £186,044 £1,320 0.71% (All time Peak)

Nov-07 £184,099 -£1,945 -1.05%

Dec-07 £182,080 -£2,019 -1.10%

Jan-08 £180,473 -£1,606 -0.88%

Feb-08 £179,358 -£1,115 -0.62%

Mar-08 £179,110 -£248 -0.14%

Apr-08 £178,555 -£555 -0.31%

May-08 £173,583 -£4,972 -2.78%

Jun-08 £172,415 -£1,168 -0.67%

Jul-08 £169,316 -£3,099 -1.80%

Aug-08 £164,654 -£4,663 -2.75%

Sep-08 £161,797 -£2,857 -1.73%

Oct-08 £158,872 -£2,925 -1.81%

Nov-08 £158,442 -£430 -0.27%

Dec-08 £153,048 -£5,395 -3.40%

Jan-09 £150,501 -£2,547 -1.66%

Feb-09 £147,746 -£2,755 -1.83% (bottom since peak)

Mar-09 £150,946 £3,201 2.17%

Apr-09 £151,861 £915 0.61%

May-09 £154,016 £2,155 1.42%

Jun-09 £156,442 £2,426 1.58%

Jul-09 £158,871 £2,429 1.55%

Aug-09 £160,224 £1,353 0.85%

Sep-09 £161,816 £1,592 0.99%

Oct-09 £162,038 £222 0.14%

Nov-09 £162,764 £726 0.45%

Dec-09 £162,103 -£661 -0.41%

Jan-10 £163,481 £1,378 0.85%

Feb-10 £161,320 -£2,161 -1.32%

Mar-10 £164,519 £3,199 1.98%

Apr-10 £167,802 £3,283 2.00%

May-10 £169,162 £1,360 0.81%

Jun-10 £170,111 £949 0.56% (second peak)

Jul-10 £169,347 -£764 -0.45%

Aug-10 £166,507 -£2,840 -1.68%

Edit:

So we are now 2.13% below the second peak, in June 2010.

And still 12.7% above the Feb 2009 bottom.

The fall should be fast from now onwards, particularly until the spring 2011. Then it may slow down a little, but should keep falling. Possibly accelerating again in the following Year.

While the national stats are interessting to the geeks ( like me) who are lovers of property price porn... they are ( lets admit it) actually pretty meaningless to the average Joe and here are the two key reasons why:

1/ They have have absolutely no relevance at all to a house that average Joe might already own or that average Joe might want to buy. This housing crash has regional, local and housing type variations of mind boggling complexity.... some houses today are worth MORE than they were in 2007 others have lost 80% of their value....

2/ Whatever the rights and wrongs the fact is that average Joe does not look at the adjusted real figures that include inflation... all they are interessted in are the nominal prices... if they buy for £100,000 and sell for £90,000 they understand they have lost £10,000 but try telling them they have actually lost £25,000 inflation adjusted and it does not compute, or rarther simply isn't relevant.

Interesstingly I saw one of these think tanks doing a bit of house price predicting and their view was that inflation adjusted house prices would be par over the next five years ( down then up I assume.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.