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Realistbear

Double Dip Definately Cancelled (This Week)

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-s-economic-data-damp-down-fears-of-new-recession-reuters_molt-94ae0c59f5e9.html?x=0

U.S. economic data damp down fears of new recession

Lucia "Lucy" Mutikani, 21:33, Thursday 2 September 2010
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -
Pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes
rebounded unexpectedly in July and new claims for
jobless benefits fell
last week, helping quell fears the economy could face a double-dip recession.
The data released on Thursday, including sturdy sales from U.S. retailers last month, followed a report on Wednesday showing a
surprising gain in manufacturing
and suggested the economy retained some underlying strength.
"This is an economy that has hit a soft patch. It's not an economy that appears to be heading towards a double-dip recession," said Brian Levitt, an economist at OppenheimerFunds in New York.
Investors appeared to agree that fears of a double-dip recession might have been overdone as they
sold U.S. government debt
for a second straight day and bought stocks. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index ended up 0.91 percent.

IF the double dip is not going to happen expect 1000 points on the DOW and at least 500 on the FTSE in the next 14 days.

It may be the case that the US was first in and are now first out. We have yet to go in which may mean some decoupling may occur and the FTSE will not quite follow NY.

I lightened up on US bonds a couple of days ago but have yet to touch stocks as I am wary because the double dip is on one week and off the next and the governments may be fibbing to try to pump up confidence.

Caution with a large pinch of scepticism methinks. Especially for gold holders as the betting has been based on economies going pear shaped and too much risk on stocks.

Edited by Realistbear

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Especially for gold holders as the betting has been based on economies going pear shaped and too much risk on stocks.

I really don't think you understand gold at all.

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Looks like its all change again today--double dip is back on and risk aversion will spur gold. Yesterday's post was economic slowdown coming to an end making gold an unwise investment. I wonder if the double dip will be off again by the close today? :lol:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-02/gold-may-rise-as-slowdown-spurs-investor-demand-survey-indicates.html

Gold May Rise as
Economic Slowdown Spurs Investor Demand
, Survey Indicates*
By Chanyaporn "Chan" Chanjaroen - Sep 3, 2010 12:01 AM GMT+0100
Gold may advance on speculation the U.S.’s economic slowdown will spur demand for the precious metal as a haven from declines in other assets.

So which is it? Economic slowdown and gold up. Or economic pick up and gold down? Or does anyone know WTF they are talking abot anymore. :blink:

_____________________________

*This may be a survey of "experts" which may go some way to explain the constant tooing and frowing.

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Typical first day of month euphoria in stocks. See the excellent Yelnick blog for more. Sep is the worst month of all 12 for stocks.

Have put much of my pension in to cash. Markets way too febrile, moves of almost 3% in a day are indicative of a violent move up or down. I'm expecting down.

Housing data is dire both sides of pond. As both UK and USA rely on this for debt based consumption (and thus grwoing GDP) I am wary of any sudden reversal of fortune.

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So which is it? Economic slowdown and gold up. Or economic pick up and gold down? Or does anyone know WTF they are talking abot anymore. :blink:

it would probably help your own analysis if you ignored the constant reuters dribble you post on here daily as justification for a market moving up or down depending on which way the wind is blowing

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it would probably help your own analysis if you ignored the constant reuters dribble you post on here daily as justification for a market moving up or down depending on which way the wind is blowing

Markets move because of news. For example, a series of negative fundamentals as reported by any news agency would find their way onto analysts desks who would in turn issue recommendastions and hit sell/buy buttons. THe key to smart investing, as Buffett would put it, is to watch which way the herd is going and move in the opposite direction. How do you know which way the herd is going? It will be reported somewhere.

Investing based on market fundamentals would be impossible without reported market news. I would have thought this was somewhat obvious? Remember when 9/11 hit the news wires and a massive stock sell-off occured? News drives markets, it always has.

Never underestimate the power of the pen (communicated word)!

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Markets move because of news. For example, a series of negative fundamentals as reported by any news agency would find their way onto analysts desks who would in turn issue recommendastions and hit sell/buy buttons. THe key to smart investing, as Buffett would put it, is to watch which way the herd is going and move in the opposite direction. How do you know which way the herd is going? It will be reported somewhere.

Investing based on market fundamentals would be impossible without reported market news.[/b] I would have thought this was somewhat obvious? Remember when 9/11 hit the news wires and a massive stock sell-off occured? News drives markets, it always has.

Never underestimate the power of the pen (communicated word)!

you are getting news (opinion) and data confused,

Did the bear market start 18 months before 9/11 or did it start after? Was the stock market above or below its 9/11 price by End October 11?

You dont need to answer you are beyond redemption

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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you are getting news (opinion) and data confused, Did the bear market start before or after 9/11? Was the stock market above or below its 9/11 price within a couple of months?

You dont need to answer you are beyond redemption

I think you made my point. How would you know if it was a bear or bull market? News.

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I think you made my point. How would you know if it was a bear or bull market? News.

So the news in March 2000 was saying a bear market was starting, the news in August 2007 was saying a bear market was starting?, the news in March 09 was saying a bull market was here, or was the news actually saying the complete opposite.

I cant put it much more simply. The news/media is a follower, it can only report after the facts, after it has happened. The only way to beat the market is to act before the news, preempt it. That is clear historical fact and unarguable based on market reality throughout history. i am not sure why you are myopic to this, it is not even disputable

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Asia stocks edge up ahead of key U.S. jobs data

.7:19, Friday 3 September 2010
SYDNEY (
Reuters
) - Asian stocks squeezed higher on Friday but gains were tentative ahead of all-important U.S. jobs data that tends to swing markets.
There was no missing the sombre mood ahead of the employment report at 1230 GMT which will
add to the debate on whether the U.S. economy is headed for a second recession
.

Is it or isn't it? More cliff hanging news (data) that will send stocks one way or the other today.

Time NOT to be in the market IMO. Just wait a few more months for another 10% off houses round here and I am done.

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So the news in March 2000 was saying a bear market was starting, the news in August 2007 was saying a bear market was starting?, the news in March 09 was saying a bull market was here, or was the news actually saying the complete opposite.

I cant put it much more simply. The news/media is a follower, it can only report after the facts, after it has happened. The only way to beat the market is to act before the news, preempt it. That is clear historical fact and unarguable based on market reality throughout history. i am not sure why you are myopic to this, it is not even disputable

Buy the rumour, sell the news?

Its all news driven, whether it is rumour or fact. Markets move because of what is communicated to whom when. You cannot escape the fact that news is powerful and it drives just about everything. Goebbels drove the German people to frenzied levels based on "news." Chuchill made his famous complaint about data in statistical form: lies, damn lies and statistics.

The US employment data/news due out today will send stocks one way or the other. A good analyst will take a lot of news, sift it, analyse it and then act accordingly. This forum is about that--a lot of opinions that you sift through and analyse and then you act.

Another example of news moving markets:

LONDON (Reuters) - European shares edged higher in early trade on Friday, after gains in the United States and Japan, but with traders cautious ahead of a key labour market report. At 8:09 a.m., the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 0.3 percent at 1,057.54 points, on course for a rise of more than 3 percent over the week. "People are watching the growth in (U.S.) private ... ...

Edited by Realistbear

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Buy the rumour, sell the news?

Its all news driven, whether it is rumour or fact. Markets move because of what is communicated to whom when. You cannot escape the fact that news is powerful and it drives just about everything. Goebbels drove the German people to frenzied levels based on "news." Chuchill made his famous complaint about data in statistical form: lies, damn lies and statistics.

The US employment data/news due out today will send stocks one way or the other. A good analyst will take a lot of news, sift it, analyse it and then act accordingly. This forum is about that--a lot of opinions that you sift through and analyse and then you act.

It is not news driven, it reacts to news over the short term, it is emotion driven, that is interpretation of news and any news can be interpreted positively or negatively on any given day, Bull markets can completely ignore bad news, bear markets will do the opposite and in such cases the news will be found to justify it which is completely useless information to take forward

A good analyst will have acted before the US employment data is out as will a good trader, considering the obvious immense interest you have in markets it is completely strange how little understanding you have of their short term mechanics, you seem to refuse to really understand them

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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"Pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes rebounded"

Sales Yet to materialise?

I think another famous bankrupt coined that particular little gem.

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So theres a recovery for a few months and then a downturn for a few months ad nauseum.

Net effect = an economy appearing to going sideways , when in reality they need to add tens of thousands of jobs a month just to break even.

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It is not news driven, it reacts to news over the short term, it is emotion driven, that is interpretation of news and any news can be interpreted positively or negatively on any given day, Bull markets can completely ignore bad news, bear markets will do the opposite and in such cases the news will be found to justify it which is completely useless information to take forward

A good analyst will have acted before the US employment data is out as will a good trader, considering the obvious immense interest you have in markets it is completely strange how little understanding you have of their short term mechanics, you seem to refuse to really understand them

I think we agree, inpart.

Anticipation (guesswork) is often based on news or the absense thereof. In the end, it all happens because of what is communicated, or not communicated. The key is being able to analyse the news/data/stats and act accordingly. The market is fickle and unpredictable in the long haul which is why the only way to make sure money is insider trading (iilegal) or through market manipulation beacuse you have the money to do it (PIMCO, Fidelity Investments etc.). It used to be buy and hold (Buffett) but in today's far more corrupt world that strategy may be a thing of the past.

If Reuters hits the wire first with bad jobs data from the US the market will react--maybe violently. The key there is to have your finger closer to the sell/buy button and at least get in or out early. If you have a mate who works at Reuters..........

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So theres a recovery for a few months and then a downturn for a few months ad nauseum.

Net effect = an economy appearing to going sideways , when in reality they need to add tens of thousands of jobs a month just to break even.

As good a bottom line as there is at the moment IMO.

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If Reuters hits the wire first with bad jobs data from the US the market will react--maybe violently. The key there is to have your finger closer to the sell/buy button and at least get in or out early. If you have a mate who works at Reuters..........

I don't pretend to have any special expertise in stock markets - but all my life I have watched them and tried to learn what drives them.

I'm constantly amazed how markets react to news - sometimes news that should send a stock down doesn't and sometimes good news doesn't send it up. Why? Who knows? 'Already priced in' is the usual reason - always provided by 'experts' speaking after the event.

One conclusion I have come to which, as far as I am concerned, is unarguable is this; Having your finger close to the sell/buy button is definitely the strategy that will LOSE you money. The only person who benefits is the broker.

It is clear to me that if you want to make money from stockmarkets, you need to be a stockbroker. It's the only way.

I've been on this board for years now, as have you. Some people on here seem to have taken against you a bit and argue with or criticise what you say. I'm sceptical about anyone who says they make money from the stock markets. Why not start an off topic thread showing us your portfolio and post your buys/sells and the current value. I'm sure a lot of people would find it interesting, I know I would - and it would kind of settle an argument.

Edited by Let's get it right

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I don't pretend to have any special expertise in stock markets - but all my life I have watched them and tried to learn what drives them.

I'm constantly amazed how markets react to news - sometimes news that should send a stock down doesn't and sometimes good news doesn't send it up. Why? Who knows? 'Already priced in' is the usual reason - always provided by 'experts' speaking after the event.

One conclusion I have come to which, as far as I am concerned, is unarguable is this; Having your finger close to the sell/buy button is definitely the strategy that will LOSE you money. The only person who benefits is the broker.

It is clear to me that if you want to make money from stockmarkets, you need to be a stockbroker. It's the only way.

Or an "insider" who knows the news before the sheeple hear it.

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'Double dip recession' is a pretty useful propoganda term, since it implies that we have come out of recession.

GDP is meaningless, the rate of change of GDP is meaningless, the definition of recession is meaningless.

Double dip recession is so devoid of meaning, it tells you more about the person talking than the subject they are talking about.

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  • 201 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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