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Presenting The Sovereign Default Equivalent Of The "hindenburg Omen"

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Thanks, interesting!

Although I'm not sure his statistical comparison to Hindenburg is valid is it?

In other words, once a country passes 1,000 bps, it has a one in five chance of defaulting, roughly in line with the crash expectations of the traditional Hindenburg Omen.

The Hindenburg probability is within a 4 month ?? timeframe which changes the odds quite significantly. He doesn't attach a timeframe to his Sovereign solvency probability. Does he mean 'within a couple of months'?

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Of course it's contained. We have the worlds greatest central bankers on the job.

It's not like they will use secrecy and hide the truth about what's going on is it?

What will be interesting is when several countries are at this point together, although will the ECB/IMF actively intervene to ensure to ensure this never happens.

The system is being gamed to it's limits.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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