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Tired of Waiting

6 Charts From Today's Nationwide Press Release

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On BBC News now. The woman presenter keeps stressing "STAGNATION" :rolleyes:.

She has the chief economist from Nationwide on and is leading and encouraging him to talk up the market :angry:.

Unbelievable piece of ramping from this presenter.

Edit: Just rewound it and her name is Sally.

Edited by Bruce Banner

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I see the long-term average of prices vs earnings is 4.0

I thought it was 3.0-3.5 ? Has the recent ramping changed the long term average ?

Yes, I was thinking about that as well. And a few weeks ago we had a thread around here where we commented on an old, 2005, The Economist magazine special report on house prices, "a bubble", etc., and there all the averages were lower, of course. Yes, current averages do include the bubble. I think the really sustainable prices vs earnings could be lower than 4.0.

But actually it will depend on interest rates, as buyers are more influenced by monthly affordability, IMO.

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On BBC News now. The woman presenter keeps stressing "STAGNATION" :rolleyes:.

She has the chief economist from Nationwide on and is leading and encouraging him to talk up the market :angry:.

Unbelievable piece of ramping from this presenter.

Edit: Just rewound it and her name is Sally.

Let's see the Sunday papers.

Any news about Halifax?

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they cant afford this

the banks are bust and cant sustain a fall in their favourite asset

more money printing will be forthcoming

anyone riding out this correction holding £'s is a fool

The coalition has told the banks and mortgage industry that a HP fall of around 25% would be welcomed. The question is if they can manage that. They may.

(Edit: we had a thread about that a couple of months ago.)

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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The coalition has told the banks and mortgage industry that a HP fall of around 25% would be welcomed.

I bet they haven't.

If it starts to fall off a cliff, they'll throw everything they have at trying to manage a "soft landing"

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I bet they haven't.

If it starts to fall off a cliff, they'll throw everything they have at trying to manage a "soft landing"

Which is why somewhere between now and QE2, in order to save the housing market, some HPCers might need to jump in and, as Gruffydd points out in another post, offer 20% below and stick to that offer.

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I bet they haven't.

If it starts to fall off a cliff, they'll throw everything they have at trying to manage a "soft landing"

See this thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=147307&view=findpost&p=2624404

And they may even be able to prevent a fall of a cliff scenario, since they control the banks, and can open the tabs when prices fall enough. The sheeple will always go for it, if monthly mortgage payments are cheap enough.

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That thread is about an article which quotes a chap who is not part of the Govt saying that he thinks that's what's afoot. As I say, I bet the govt have not actually said that.

25% would translate into a hell of a lot of lost votes repos and negative equity.

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That thread is about an article which quotes a chap who is not part of the Govt saying (...)

Just "a chap"?!

"Speaking at a Money Marketing round table last week, Barclays director of intermediaries David Finlay said (...)

Association of Mortgage Intermediaries director Robert Sinclair said (...)

Building Societies Association head of mortgage policy Paul Broadhead said (...)"

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The only one quoting 25% was Robert Sinclair, and he said:

“They do expect this fall in the capital values of residential properties from about £4trn. They think £3trn might be a better number, nobody is going to come out and say that though.”

Nebulous, no ?

I said that I bet the govt have not actually said that. Mr Sinclair seems to agree with me ;)

You are inferring a deal more than was implied, and I'd suggest that what was implied is a deal more than there's any actual evidence for, beyond hearsay.

I'd love this to be true. If/when they deliver the goods, fair enough. That's not yet, though, and my suspicion is that it won't be ever.

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The only one quoting 25% was Robert Sinclair, and he said:

Nebulous, no ?

I said that I bet the govt have not actually said that. Mr Sinclair seems to agree with me ;)

You are inferring a deal more than was implied, and I'd suggest that what was implied is a deal more than there's any actual evidence for, beyond hearsay.

I'd love this to be true. If/when they deliver the goods, fair enough. That's not yet, though, and my suspicion is that it won't be ever.

Looks to me like they have started to "deliver the goods" already. See below.

If it were a Labour government, would you still be as resistant to admit that they are doing what they had leaked they were going to do?

6charts.png

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Looks to me like they have started to "deliver the goods" already. See below.

Nope. That's a correction - not a 25% one. No-one's denying the need or desirability of a correction - what I'm saying is that I doubt they'd let it go to 25% willingly because the political fall-out would be too extreme.

If it were a Labour government, would you still be as resistant to admit that they are doing what they had leaked they were going to do?

:)

It's not my place to "admit" anything. I'm just saying that I bet the Govt haven't said they're pitching for 25%, and the only evidence that mentions that figure actually says - just that.

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Nope. That's a correction - not a 25% one. No-one's denying the need or desirability of a correction - what I'm saying is that I doubt they'd let it go to 25% willingly because the political fall-out would be too extreme.

:)

It's not my place to "admit" anything. I'm just saying that I bet the Govt haven't said they're pitching for 25%, and the only evidence that mentions that figure actually says - just that.

I agree that a -25% nominal prices would be a bit hard to believe. But they are probably talking real prices. And if in the next 3 years we have an accumulated inflation of 10% (quite possible, if not more), then nominal prices would just have to fall by 15% in 3 years, just 5%/year on average, and there you have 25% real prices fall.

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I bet they haven't.

If it starts to fall off a cliff, they'll throw everything they have at trying to manage a "soft landing"

My gut tells me that they have already done this. There is nothing left (I think more Queasing could be more painful in the long-term and they *MAY* start to understand this).

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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