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Timm

Bull, Bear Or Neither For 2010?

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With five months to go for the 2010 LR (their Dec 2010 report will be published in late Jan 2011), I thought it might be fun* to see what people are now predicting for nominal prices, as reported by the Land Registry for the whole of 2010.

If 5% either way of zero is not exact enough, please feel free to post a precise prediction.

*I did this on another forum and got somewhat surprising results...

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I receive property details via email and am tracking prices in my area of E Sussex. Detached 3 BR are down by AT LEAST 10% this year from where they were in early Spring. I expect to see a further 10% off by Crimbo. The EAs do not deny it either and say to wait a bit longer. The reality in the marketplace is not being reflected in the stats at all--not even close.

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With five months to go for the 2010 LR (their Dec 2010 report will be published in late Jan 2011), I thought it might be fun* to see what people are now predicting for nominal prices, as reported by the Land Registry for the whole of 2010.

If 5% either way of zero is not exact enough, please feel free to post a precise prediction.

*I did this on another forum and got somewhat surprising results...

Let me guess - mumsnet/MSE think a 25% increase?

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Let me guess - mumsnet/MSE think a 25% increase?

smile.gif

No, it was creditcrunch.

None of the "bulls" went for the bull option, several of the hard core "bears" went for neither.

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Where's the nutter option for me? Mega crash - down 30%

It will not be nice. I hope I'm wrong. (PS if I am then it will be next year :))

Edited by non frog

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With five months to go for the 2010 LR (their Dec 2010 report will be published in late Jan 2011), I thought it might be fun* to see what people are now predicting for nominal prices, as reported by the Land Registry for the whole of 2010.

If 5% either way of zero is not exact enough, please feel free to post a precise prediction.

*I did this on another forum and got somewhat surprising results...

As my status suggests (neither) cant see them being more than 5% down over the year

As my signature suggests 2011,12 and 13 have always been for me the years that all asset prices take an absolute pounding

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With five months to go for the 2010 LR (their Dec 2010 report will be published in late Jan 2011), I thought it might be fun* to see what people are now predicting for nominal prices, as reported by the Land Registry for the whole of 2010.

If 5% either way of zero is not exact enough, please feel free to post a precise prediction.

*I did this on another forum and got somewhat surprising results...

Timm you big whore!

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My local sample of houses in NW Kent now shows as big an oversupply of houses for sale as in 2008 with more than 1/3 of them offered at reduced prices. General price falls imminent.

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With five months to go for the 2010 LR (their Dec 2010 report will be published in late Jan 2011), I thought it might be fun* to see what people are now predicting for nominal prices, as reported by the Land Registry for the whole of 2010.

If 5% either way of zero is not exact enough, please feel free to post a precise prediction.

*I did this on another forum and got somewhat surprising results...

For me it really is obvious. We will see falls carry on at around an average of a third of a percent a month till the end of the year. OK, on the really extreme side we could average one percent falls IF the economy really dives BUT without any real changes ie interest rate rises there are 35 posters who think house prices will fall by 2%, or more, a month every month till the end of the year!!!!! I know much on this forum is tongue in cheek but not all surely? This is why I only take seriously (semi seriously) a handful of posters the others just do not think.

I have predicted house prices to go negative at the end of the year (possibly very early next) and I thought I was being bearish!

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Well the Nationwide figure will not help the bears as it needed to be double this fall to come even into their lowest expectations. Maybe a 3% or a 4% fall next month will keep their pipe dreams alive, just.

It fits bang in the middle of the neither's prediction of around zero HPI at end of year with falls of around .4% PCM for the last 4 months of the year.

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For me it really is obvious. We will see falls carry on at around an average of a third of a percent a month till the end of the year. OK, on the really extreme side we could average one percent falls IF the economy really dives BUT without any real changes ie interest rate rises there are 35 posters who think house prices will fall by 2%, or more, a month every month till the end of the year!!!!! I know much on this forum is tongue in cheek but not all surely? This is why I only take seriously (semi seriously) a handful of posters the others just do not think.

I have predicted house prices to go negative at the end of the year (possibly very early next) and I thought I was being bearish!

Well explained.

And yet people are still voting bear!

(Although I do perhaps expect falls to accelerate more than you).

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Well explained.

And yet people are still voting bear!

(Although I do perhaps expect falls to accelerate more than you).

And remember LR figures will be showing approx 3 to 4 months behind! So I would suggest it would finish the year between +2% to +4% YOY figure, around the same as Nationwide and Halifax are showing now.

Just to clarify my thoughts. The real Elephant in the room is the one that has been there for quite some time which is interest rates. When (and not if) rates rise house prices will fall and the ratio will be quite suprising for many. A small rise of 1% in the BOE base could see average mortgage rates rise 2.5% which could be a doubling on some mortgages.

The consensus seems to be the base rate rising to around 3.5% by the end of 2011 but there are still so many who refuse to believe this will happen, "the government wont let it happen" or "We are in a new paradigm, low rates for ever" or "they have been like this for ages and ages why should they change them" all exactly the same arguments as to why house prices could never go down only an even weaker argument.

It should be remembered that interest rates are the single biggest factor affecting house prices.

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With five months to go for the 2010 LR (their Dec 2010 report will be published in late Jan 2011), I thought it might be fun* to see what people are now predicting for nominal prices, as reported by the Land Registry for the whole of 2010.

If 5% either way of zero is not exact enough, please feel free to post a precise prediction.

*I did this on another forum and got somewhat surprising results...

Let's see. I will use today's Nationwide numbers for an estimate here.

For 2010 as a whole, should we compare Dec 09 to Dec 2010, or Jan 10 to Jan 2011? (It will make a difference.)

The current average HP is: Aug-10 = £166,507.

And it was:

Dec-09 = £162,103

Jan-10 = £163,481

My guess is that nominal HP will fall 6% in the next 4 months. So, Nationwide will be £156,500. So, around 4% fall in the year. But I do hope for a bigger fall.

And I think 2011 will see a good fall, of more than 10% nominal, almost 15% real.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Let's see. I will use today's Nationwide numbers for an estimate here.

For 2010 as a whole, should we compare Dec 09 to Dec 2010, or Jan 10 to Jan 2011? (It will make a difference.)

(...)

Yes, it makes a big difference in the LR.

I would suggest that the way the question is worded will mean most people will expect it to be comparing Dec 2009 with Dec 2010.

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Let's see. I will use today's Nationwide numbers for an estimate here.

For 2010 as a whole, should we compare Dec 09 to Dec 2010, or Jan 10 to Jan 2011? (It will make a difference.)

The current average HP is: Aug-10 = £166,507.

And it was:

Dec-09 = £162,103

Jan-10 = £163,481

My guess is that nominal HP will fall 6% in the next 4 months. So, Nationwide will be £156,500. So, around 4% fall in the year. But I do hope for a bigger fall.

And I think 2011 will see a good fall, of more than 10% nominal, almost 15% real.

Interesting

You seem very bearish for the rest of 2010 but not quite so for 2011

I believe the main indexes will be at end of year:

Nationwide down a further 3.1% Sept, Oct, Nov Dec (average -.775% pcm)

Halifax down 0.4% Sept, Oct, Nov Dec (average -.1% pcm)

Land Registry 0.0 Aug sept oct nov dec (average 0) maybe positives Aug, Sept and possibly Oct with negatives Nov, Dec? maybe

I would guestimate falls of around 11% for 2011. Interest rates will be the key driver.

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If 5% either way of zero is not exact enough, please feel free to post a precise prediction.

I'll predict that anyone who thinks they can predict HP's to 0.1% doesn't have the first idea what they're talking about.

Beyond that who know's; HP's are still massively overvalued and we look like we're embarking upon the second leg down but how far and how fast?

Edit: P.S, can you throw some abuse at Columbo from me.

Thanks.

Edited by Goat

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Interesting

You seem very bearish for the rest of 2010 but not quite so for 2011

Yes, I am guestimating a 1.5% average fall for these last 4 months of the year, and 10% for the whole of 2011. Mainly because I am guessing that prices will fall fast until the spring 2011, perhaps even 10% down from now, but then some silly people may think prices have fallen enough, and may start buying again in the spring, creating another little bull trap, with prices stabilising, and perhaps even rising a little for a month or two, and then starting to fall again towards the end of the year. But of course this is all just one possible scenario - the one that I now think most probable, from what we know, or "feel", now. Who knows.

BTW, all along I've been talking about not seasonally adjusted prices, of course.

I believe the main indexes will be at end of year:

Nationwide down a further 3.1% Sept, Oct, Nov Dec (average -.775% pcm)

Halifax down 0.4% Sept, Oct, Nov Dec (average -.1% pcm)

Land Registry 0.0 Aug sept oct nov dec (average 0) maybe positives Aug, Sept and possibly Oct with negatives Nov, Dec? maybe

I would guestimate falls of around 11% for 2011. Interest rates will be the key driver.

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Interesting

You seem very bearish for the rest of 2010 but not quite so for 2011

(...)

Didn't I just tell you?! Look at this one:

Why? I have far greater profits on the BTLs over the last couple of years with all on SVRs linked to LIBOR. We are either paying down our mortgages or saving for large deposits/cash purchases on the next set.

It's the BTL flippers that are fooked.

If you head to the old industrial areas you will see that no-one is trying to buy or can buy and rental demand is very high.

I have already started seriously looking for my next 3 or 4 properties - probably look at buying in the 1st Quarter, 2011.

:lol:

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  • 144 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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