Oil Supply In Gulf Of Mexico

[how much...?? you must be joking]

...credit to a poster from TMF for finding this article...

..it's unsubstantiated... but sounds frighteningly plausible..

http://www.postcarbon.org/node/735

[Tim M]

Following article is from http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=24992

It contains details of actual rig losses and damage. Note that Chevron, the largest Gulf of Mexico operator had not reported at that point.

Special Report: Hurricane Katrina Damage Assessment

Rigzone Friday, September 02, 2005

Offshore Damage Overview and Perspective

Thus far, the effects of Hurricane Katrina on the upstream industry in the Gulf of Mexico have seemed light compared with the problems inflicted on onshore refining and transport facilities. But when put in perspective with the problems caused by last year's Hurricane Ivan, Katrina proves to have packed quite a punch.

According to the MMS, Ivan destroyed 7 offshore platforms and did damage to 100 underwater pipelines. Ivan also damaged a total of 7 offshore rigs (4 semisubs, 2 platform rigs, 1 jackup) and completely destroyed 2 rigs (1 jackup, 1 platform rig).

Katrina damaged a total of 12 rigs, including at least 5 that are likely to be scrapped. Discounting the 3 semisubs that only suffered loss of ballast and listing, Katrina still damaged 9 offshore rigs. Additionally, damage to at least 30 offshore platforms has been confirmed, with 18 platforms a total loss. And that number may increase, as a recent MMS report indicated a total of 58 damaged platforms and rigs in the Gulf. The only major area of uncertainty is how badly the underwater pipelines connecting the offshore platforms to shore have been damaged. It will be at least several more days before those damages can be fully assessed.

Download the overview of rig and platform damage (PDF)

Offshore Rig Damage Assessment

Hurricane Damage Map When Hurricane Katrina blew through the Gulf, 62 rigs stood in its direct path, while another 55 rigs were within the reach of its tropical storm force winds. No damage has been reported on any of the rigs outside of its direct path, but many of the rigs in its path were damaged. According to rig manager reports as of Friday, Sept 2nd, a total of 12 rigs had endured notable damage; nearly 20% of the rigs in the path of the storm.

The most severe damage was dealt to the Rowan New Orleans (250' IS jackup), which appears to have been sunk, and Diamond's Ocean Warwick (300' IC jackup), which was carried 66 miles by the storm and washed up on Dauphin Island. In addition to these jackup losses, 4 platform rigs suffered serious damages, so much so that all 4 may be scrapped. The most valuable rig damaged by Katrina was Transocean's $330 million semisub, the Deepwater Nautilus, which was moved 80 miles off of its pre-storm position and experienced significant damage to its risers and subsea systems.

Download the full report on rigs affected by Katrina (PDF)

Offshore Platform Damage Assessment

Based on information provided by operators owning platforms and leases in the Gulf of Mexico, there are at least 30 offshore platforms that have been damaged to varying degrees by Hurricane Katrina. Of those 30 platforms, reports show that 18 platforms appear to have been completely lost, while another 12 platforms have been damaged. The majority of damage has occurred on shallow water platforms, but there are a few notable exceptions.

Shell's $550 million Mars tension leg platform (TLP) was handling 147,000 barrels of oil and 157mmcfe per day from its location on Mississippi Canyon 807 before Katrina hit on Sunday. Now the platform is entirely shut-in and has experienced major damages due to the destruction of the H&P 201 platform rig that was located on its top sides. The extent of the damages to the Mars platform has yet to be ascertained, but the H&P 201 is almost certainly a total loss.

Download the full report on operator platforms damaged by Katrina (PDF)

[EmpiricalBear]

Surely that postcarbon link would be good news?

If Gulf of Mexico oil extraction was set back years, then supplies will be available for longer, helping to push back the arrival of peak oil?

[van hoogstraten]

Details will be suppressed at all costs to prevent panic buying of petrol - look what happened during the fuel protests - they unfortunately failed to unseat the grinning idiot in charge of the UK but had him hugely worried because he was completely powerless - I'm sure Dubya will have been made aware of what can happen if news gets out

[Guest Riser]

Details will be suppressed at all costs to prevent panic buying of petrol - look what happened during the fuel protests - they unfortunately failed to unseat the grinning idiot in charge of the UK but had him hugely worried because he was completely powerless - I'm sure Dubya will have been made aware of what can happen if news gets out

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The paper review on BBC this morning held up 5 popular papers but only mentioned stories about New Orleans and George Clooney’s new project.

You could actually see two of the petrol headlines on a couple of the papers but they just would not mention them. I was if they had been instructed not to raise concerns over petrol prices.

Ironically the next piece was about propaganda in wartime Germany and the delivery of fake versions of the London Standard with headlines designed to mislead the British public

[Smurf1976]

Surely that postcarbon link would be good news?

If Gulf of Mexico oil extraction was set back years, then supplies will be available for longer, helping to push back the arrival of peak oil?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

For the moment at least we have actually seen a peak in oil production followed by a storm-induced decline.

Ever wondered what the early days following Peak Oil would be like? We're about to find out...

Whilst this is most likely not THE peak, it is an interim peak nonetheless so it's going to get somewhat interesting to say the least. And whenever there is a genuine rise in supply there's going to be all those emergency stocks to refill. So it's going to be tight for quite a while (possibly long enough to take us to the actual peak production?).