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Doomsday Scenario: Food Prices To Shoot Through The Roof

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Place your bets folks, are we heading for Inflation, Deflation, or Stagflation ??? Can you extrapolate any Possible Macro Environmental Factors (such as; Social, Legal, Economic, Political, Technological events) to forecast what 2015 is going to be like for us in UK, Europe, US, Asia ???

Who is going to come out on top ????

Doomsday Scenario: Food Prices to Shoot Through the Roof - Pravda 30/08/2010

http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/30-08-2010/114809-doomsday_food_prices-0

The worst weather on record coupled with the practice of speculation in the commodities markets are set to send food prices skyrocketing, bringing misery and starvation to large swathes of the world’s population. Are we set to see food riots this winter?

In the USA, Walmart has already announced a price hike of 5.8% on average for a 31-item basic basket for this Autumn. The long-term rise, however, is far more frightening, with the UNO predicting an increase of 60 per cent by 2030.

What is happening?

When there is a massive price spike, such as the case in recent years, followed by more price rises (as is the case today) the markets panic and speculative buying sends the prices through the roof. The market economy system is indeed not all about supply and demand but is also, and fundamentally, fuelled by speculative trading, with spot buyers buying future positions of commodities. When they are scarce, and the more so when the market senses that a scarcity exists, the price goes up.

This is what is happening today. September corn is up by 3.6% a bushel, wheat by 34 cents. In July the price of wheat shot up by the highest quantity in the last 50 years: 42 per cent. This in turn will push up prices of pasta, bread and cereals in the near future.

Prices set to rise for 12 to 18 months

Analysts predict upward trends in wheat, corn, soybeans, bean oil and bean meal and the general feeling is a continued rising trend over the next 12 to 18 months. As usual, no mechanisms have been activated to protect the world’s poorer populations from the dramatic effects of supply issues and the resulting speculation in prices.

Global production downturn

Russia reports a drop in production of around 20 per cent due to dry weather conditions. Drought has also affected Ukraine (where maximum production is set to reach just 66% of domestic demand) and Kazakhstan, while floods have affected 13 million acres of cereals in Canada and have wiped out a large part of China’s harvest. Germany’s wheat production is ten to twenty per cent down on 2009; in Argentina dry conditions mean that only 80% of the arable land for cereals has been planted.

The S word: Speculation

In today’s market economy system, what drives the prices is not only supply and demand but also the S word: Speculation, where a handful of players push prices sky high and way beyond the reaches of the pockets of the average consumer. If the system were based upon supply and demand then the price of soybean would be bearish (top-down attack, falling), because the main producers (Brazil, Argentina and the USA), have had a good harvest. Then why is the price of soybean bullish (bottom-up attack, rising)?

Because cash premiums are forcing the soybean futures rates higher as a process of over-consumption of soybean is noticed in the marketplace (soybean is present these days in most foodstuffs and other consumable items). So much so, that the price of soybean would have to rise a further 50 to 80% to curb the current demand.

And it makes sense for this to happen…and that is going to affect the price of everything we eat.

Couple this with the rising cost of transportation (crude and natural gas prices are set to rise from September) and we see our comfortable little monetarist-oriented market economy system has engendered another fine crisis looming on the horizon. Watch this space.

Vast swathes of the planet are set to go hungry. Those who were previously hungry may starve. It is the Doomsday Scenario and it is upon us. And it is caused not by the lack of supply or scarcity of abundance. It is caused by this manic, inhumane system, the S-word, Speculation.

Timothy BANCROFT-HINCHEY

PRAVDA.Ru

peak food Aug 2010.jpg

End Of Cheap Food Aug 2010.jpg

post-1900-12832840324696_thumb.jpg

post-1900-12832843271626_thumb.jpg

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Yourhere.jpg

Place your bets folks, are we heading for Inflation, Deflation, or Stagflation ??? Can you extrapolate any Possible Macro Environmental Factors (such as; Social, Legal, Economic, Political, Technological events) to forecast what 2015 is going to be like for us in UK, Europe, US, Asia ???

Who is going to come out on top ????

Doomsday Scenario: Food Prices to Shoot Through the Roof - Pravda 30/08/2010

http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/30-08-2010/114809-doomsday_food_prices-0

The worst weather on record coupled with the practice of speculation in the commodities markets are set to send food prices skyrocketing, bringing misery and starvation to large swathes of the world’s population. Are we set to see food riots this winter?

In the USA, Walmart has already announced a price hike of 5.8% on average for a 31-item basic basket for this Autumn. The long-term rise, however, is far more frightening, with the UNO predicting an increase of 60 per cent by 2030.

What is happening?

When there is a massive price spike, such as the case in recent years, followed by more price rises (as is the case today) the markets panic and speculative buying sends the prices through the roof. The market economy system is indeed not all about supply and demand but is also, and fundamentally, fuelled by speculative trading, with spot buyers buying future positions of commodities. When they are scarce, and the more so when the market senses that a scarcity exists, the price goes up.

This is what is happening today. September corn is up by 3.6% a bushel, wheat by 34 cents. In July the price of wheat shot up by the highest quantity in the last 50 years: 42 per cent. This in turn will push up prices of pasta, bread and cereals in the near future.

Prices set to rise for 12 to 18 months

Analysts predict upward trends in wheat, corn, soybeans, bean oil and bean meal and the general feeling is a continued rising trend over the next 12 to 18 months. As usual, no mechanisms have been activated to protect the world’s poorer populations from the dramatic effects of supply issues and the resulting speculation in prices.

Global production downturn

Russia reports a drop in production of around 20 per cent due to dry weather conditions. Drought has also affected Ukraine (where maximum production is set to reach just 66% of domestic demand) and Kazakhstan, while floods have affected 13 million acres of cereals in Canada and have wiped out a large part of China’s harvest. Germany’s wheat production is ten to twenty per cent down on 2009; in Argentina dry conditions mean that only 80% of the arable land for cereals has been planted.

The S word: Speculation

In today’s market economy system, what drives the prices is not only supply and demand but also the S word: Speculation, where a handful of players push prices sky high and way beyond the reaches of the pockets of the average consumer. If the system were based upon supply and demand then the price of soybean would be bearish (top-down attack, falling), because the main producers (Brazil, Argentina and the USA), have had a good harvest. Then why is the price of soybean bullish (bottom-up attack, rising)?

Because cash premiums are forcing the soybean futures rates higher as a process of over-consumption of soybean is noticed in the marketplace (soybean is present these days in most foodstuffs and other consumable items). So much so, that the price of soybean would have to rise a further 50 to 80% to curb the current demand.

And it makes sense for this to happen…and that is going to affect the price of everything we eat.

Couple this with the rising cost of transportation (crude and natural gas prices are set to rise from September) and we see our comfortable little monetarist-oriented market economy system has engendered another fine crisis looming on the horizon. Watch this space.

Vast swathes of the planet are set to go hungry. Those who were previously hungry may starve. It is the Doomsday Scenario and it is upon us. And it is caused not by the lack of supply or scarcity of abundance. It is caused by this manic, inhumane system, the S-word, Speculation.

Timothy BANCROFT-HINCHEY

PRAVDA.Ru

I think we might all die

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Interesting article, however is this a crank site as I got a little distracted by the photo's of tree's on Mars, and aliens landing in Russia? Might detract from the credibility a little.

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Interesting article, however is this a crank site as I got a little distracted by the photo's of tree's on Mars, and aliens landing in Russia? Might detract from the credibility a little.

Still loads of productive land not used or under utilised, still much of the world lacks the productivity that is seen in the USA, main reason...Fertiliser!

Hence BHP's bid seemingly "crazy" bid? Now would that really be crazy or just "Informed"?

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Interesting article, however is this a crank site as I got a little distracted by the photo's of tree's on Mars, and aliens landing in Russia? Might detract from the credibility a little.

Yes, and coming from what used to be the primary news paper of communist USSR its ...confusing. However, they do have some serious journalists who know what they are doing.

Odd that Ukraine and Russia have a drought but next door here in Poland there is plenty of regular rain (and sunshine+heat)

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Still loads of productive land not used or under utilised, still much of the world lacks the productivity that is seen in the USA, main reason...Fertiliser!

and more importantly, water, which will be the biggest drag on consumption. A tonne of wheat takes 1000 tones of water to produce

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Russia wants higher grain prices.

Blames speculators.

Nice political piece masquerading as analysis.

PRAVDA.Ru

Edited by Frank Sidebottom

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and more importantly, water, which will be the biggest drag on consumption. A tonne of wheat takes 1000 tones of water to produce

Yes - well said.

Saudi Arabia is set to cease grain production by 2016 due to water shortages. Note the article was written back in 2008 !

see : www.celsias.com/article/water-shortages-cause-saudis-to-cease-grain-produc/

I guess we are living in an age of scarcity.

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Erm, up 60% by 2030? It's predicting the lowest inflation in living memory!

60% per month by 2030, now you're talking. Or would be, if we accept that that kind of ballpark figure is just one outcome of a model with plenty of uncertainty (c.f. those BoE fan charts)..

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Food is pretty cheap at the moment, for most people it's too cheap to bother about growing their own or reducing waste. Those people with a garden or access to land should start growing stuff now as it takes a few years to get really productive, make a good collection of seeds etc. Also, changing your diet to one that includes a higher percentage of fresh food takes time.

Edited by council dweller

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Russia wants higher grain prices.

Blames speculators.

Nice political piece masquerading as analysis.

PRAVDA.Ru

Exactly - one year of poor harvest due to a local climate abberation and it's the end of the World 'media scare' scenario!

This happens normally somewhere around the World every year.

Note that it now needs Big Business Banksta 'speculators' to force the price up artificially, on the tiniest bit of bad news!

They directly killed well over 30 Million people in poorer countries, due to starvation, the last time they 'speculated' with basic foodstuff prices!

Edited by erranta

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Exactly - one year of poor harvest due to a local climate abberation and it's the end of the World 'media scare' scenario!

This happens normally somewhere around the World every year.

Note that it now needs Big Business Banksta 'speculators' to force the price up artificially, on the tiniest bit of bad news!

They killed well over 30 Million people due to starvation the last time they 'speculated'

Indeed.

There are actually huge wheat surplus stocks hence why the price has been plumetting. Largest for 4 years iirc.

We saw the same with oil prices in late '08 - they were so desperate to get the price back up they were getting banksters to store the stuff in tankers offshore. Just think how much money the A Rabs were losing selling it at $40 rather than $80, let alone the deflationary impact.

(p.s. The Economist is a pile of crap too - hope that helps).

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Indeed.

There are actually huge wheat surplus stocks hence why the price has been plumetting. Largest for 4 years iirc.

We saw the same with oil prices in late '08 - they were so desperate to get the price back up they were getting banksters to store the stuff in tankers offshore. Just think how much money the A Rabs were losing selling it at $40 rather than $80, let alone the deflationary impact.

(p.s. The Economist is a pile of crap too - hope that helps).

Remember what they did to the price of various metals at the peak of their artificial speculating?

The media was pumped full of artificial scare_city stories, running out of this, running out of that. "China is causing the shortages" etc

Within a few months it was as if nothing ever happened (except their media inspired ramping of prices) and a few 'in the club' left £billions$ richer from the Exploitation of a corrupt system!

Golf 'clubs'= iron rods!

'They' have been doing exactly the same with Oil - as said!

The whole Worlds' commodity/foodstuffs markets are now artificially, minutely, controlled by a few dangerous Elite 'money aCCumulting' madmen!

Edited by erranta

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Place your bets folks, are we heading for Inflation, Deflation, or Stagflation ???

I'm pretty sure we all agreed on Biflation... costs up, assets and wages down.

Even the inflationistas accept wages can't rise due to competition from the far east.

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Food is pretty cheap at the moment, for most people it's too cheap to bother about growing their own or reducing waste. Those people with a garden or access to land should start growing stuff now as it takes a few years to get really productive, make a good collection of seeds etc. Also, changing your diet to one that includes a higher percentage of fresh food takes time.

This seems well underway according to this article today 14% rise in seed sales

I live in london so even if I wanted to eat home grown and full of pollution food it would cost me too much for the land/window box to grow it anyway...

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Exactly - one year of poor harvest due to a local climate abberation and it's the end of the World 'media scare' scenario!

This happens normally somewhere around the World every year.

Note that it now needs Big Business Banksta 'speculators' to force the price up artificially, on the tiniest bit of bad news!

They directly killed well over 30 Million people in poorer countries, due to starvation, the last time they 'speculated' with basic foodstuff prices!

We've not had many moronic catastrophist threads recently about food/oil/water. Have a bunch of TFHs left us? ;)

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I got a little distracted by the photo's of tree's on Mars,

I first read that as "tree's of Mars". Just the thought of those Mars bar ice-creams....hmmmmmm.

A welcome change from being forced to eat only what the land produces for free. Variations on bruschetta, again, anyone?

EDIT:- there's an 's' in bruschetta, silly girl!

Edited by Laura

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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