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MinceBalls

It Never Happened

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A few others on here posting depressing stories of stubbornly high prices so I thought I'd add to it:

I’ve spent the bank hols with my mum in the little market town I grew up in on the edge of the Cotswolds and had a real eye opening experience.

I used to play football for the local town and was mates with some of the local lads; in the last 15 years they have all left; I used to meet up with them at Christmas but one by one, sighting overpriced property they have had to leave… you see the locals earn 20K (ish) on average… sparkies, clerks and labourers… which doesn’t buy a garage in this place. Slowly but surely over the last 15 years the regional accent has changed from local country ‘good ol’boy’ to the same middle-class accent you hear in every well off village / town in the country. The butchers closed down and was replaced by a wood burning stove shop and then the grocers was replaced by an uber-expensive bridle ware shop. The newsagent is closing down next month and private nurseries are popping up all over the place.

I’ve been wandering around the place all weekend thinking if anything the recession has benefited the majority of people in this place (the original locals not being the majority any more). There are more planning applications, building work left right and centre, more 4x4’s than ever. Sold signs all over the place and I’m told prices are now back to all time highs… stuff is selling in the first weekend of it going up. I spoke to a couple who are renting nearby, desperate to move to the place… I am told there are lots of other families doing likewise.

I see more overt wealth in the village than ever before; low interest rates putting more money (our money) into the pockets of the already well off…. this place has turned into a little offshoot of London (train is 1hr 20 mins to Paddington).

This crash is not going well in some places :angry:

Edited by MinceBalls

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I used to play football for the local town and was mates with some of the local lads; in the last 15 years they have all left; I used to meet up with them at Christmas but one by one, sighting overpriced property they have had to leave… you see the locals earn 20K (ish) on average… sparkies, clerks and labourers… which doesn’t buy a garage in this place. Slowly but surely over the last 15 years the regional accent has changed from local country ‘good ol’boy’ to the same middle-class accent you hear in every well off village / town in the country. The butchers closed down and was replaced by a wood burning stove shop and then the grocers was replaced by an uber-expensive bridle ware shop. The newsagent is closing down next month and private nurseries are popping up all over the place.

I think you seeing a fairly widespread exception (if that isn't too logically dissonant). I just got back from a bank-holiday at a place called West Meon. Very hard to imagine anyone who isn't, to be frank, extremely wealthy living there. I have a friend I visit in a pretty village near Bath. Same story.

I wouldn't describe these places as immune to any potential crashes, but they will be resistant. The whole point of these places is that only the rich live there - that's how they want it - and if millionaire A loses a bit in the downturn, millionaire B is ready to step in. Besides, it's not like the upper-middle class have suffered much (and they, I suspect, are the residents).

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A few others on here posting depressing stories of stubbornly high prices so I thought I'd add to it:

I’ve spent the bank hols with my mum in the little market town I grew up in on the edge of the Cotswolds and had a real eye opening experience.

I used to play football for the local town and was mates with some of the local lads; in the last 15 years they have all left; I used to meet up with them at Christmas but one by one, sighting overpriced property they have had to leave… you see the locals earn 20K (ish) on average… sparkies, clerks and labourers… which doesn’t buy a garage in this place. Slowly but surely over the last 15 years the regional accent has changed from local country ‘good ol’boy’ to the same middle-class accent you hear in every well off village / town in the country. The butchers closed down and was replaced by a wood burning stove shop and then the grocers was replaced by an uber-expensive bridle ware shop. The newsagent is closing down next month and private nurseries are popping up all over the place.

I’ve been wandering around the place all weekend thinking if anything the recession has benefited the majority of people in this place (the original locals not being the majority any more). There are more planning applications, building work left right and centre, more 4x4’s than ever. Sold signs all over the place and I’m told prices are now back to all time highs… stuff is selling in the first weekend of it going up. I spoke to a couple who are renting nearby, desperate to move to the place… I am told there are lots of other families doing likewise.

I see more overt wealth in the village than ever before; low interest rates putting more money (our money) into the pockets of the already well off…. this place has turned into a little offshoot of London (train is 1hr 20 mins to Paddington).

This crash is not going well in some places :angry:

You have my sympathies but Charlbury has to be in the top 1% of preferred locations for anyone who wants everything in a home, I know, I used to live in a small hamlet four miles away and have been watching prices rise unabatedly for the past seven years and I'm kicking myself for ever selling but I was convinced the market was going to crash (even back then). I just don't think that area will ever see a serious decline in prices, ever. Big OW.

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I think you seeing a fairly widespread exception (if that isn't too logically dissonant). I just got back from a bank-holiday at a place called West Meon. Very hard to imagine anyone who isn't, to be frank, extremely wealthy living there. I have a friend I visit in a pretty village near Bath. Same story.

I wouldn't describe these places as immune to any potential crashes, but they will be resistant. The whole point of these places is that only the rich live there - that's how they want it - and if millionaire A loses a bit in the downturn, millionaire B is ready to step in. Besides, it's not like the upper-middle class have suffered much (and they, I suspect, are the residents).

Yep, good points.

However, as has been pointed out to me... a market where the value of an asset increases by 400% in 15 years surely also has a down side? ie: asset prices affected by certain factors must also suffer from negative factors too? Otherwise we really have entered into 'things are different this time' scenario which I still fail to be convinced by.

And I am hearing too many people in too many places say ‘it’s different in my neighbourhood’ for it actually be different!

So are we to assume that in these places prices only go up OR... are we still yet to see the real effects of a property downturn and something else is around the corner? I don't know but my head tells me prices will come down EVERYWHERE.

But you also make a good point about the rich... they have monopolised this place and therefore it will be much more resistant to downward pressure... they will fight tooth and nail to maintain their wealth.

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Yep, good points.

However, as has been pointed out to me... a market where the value of an asset increases by 400% in 15 years surely also has a down side? ie: asset prices affected by certain factors must also suffer from negative factors too? Otherwise we really have entered into 'things are different this time' scenario which I still fail to be convinced by.

And I am hearing too many people in too many places say ‘it’s different in my neighbourhood’ for it actually be different!

So are we to assume that in these places prices only go up OR... are we still yet to see the real effects of a property downturn and something else is around the corner? I don't know but my head tells me prices will come down EVERYWHERE.

But you also make a good point about the rich... they have monopolised this place and therefore it will be much more resistant to downward pressure... they will fight tooth and nail to maintain their wealth.

Of course they will fight tooth and nail.

You have been cheated because house price inflation was delinked from earnings.

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Of course they will fight tooth and nail.

You have been cheated because house price inflation was delinked from earnings.

Yep... my question... your opinion valued... do you think they will ever be re-linked?

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It's a story of mobility and short distances. Costs of road travel are continually falling[1], and costs of communication are falling a whole lot more as it turns electronic. Thus desirable Cotswold villages are in direct competition with Surrey and even Mayfair for the richest-of-the-rich.

[1] not least because rich people moving to places like the Cotswolds have a fearsome propaganda machine telling us how hard-done-by motorists are, and no government dares to contradict them.

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You have my sympathies but Charlbury has to be in the top 1% of preferred locations for anyone who wants everything in a home

Yes, a house near local amenities, like a butchers and green grocers and newsagent nearby.

The problem with things like bridal shops and wood burning stove shops is that it's not a very big market and everything is cheaper online. Eventually those shops will be converted back into houses, or maybe a couple of pricey "appartments".

Pretty soon the local pub which the rich folk only visit twice a year will shut, and become a "home with character" and the village will become cut off from the outside world.

These places will become gated communities within 5 years. All these traveling toff villages will.

Parish councils will put up automatic gates at the ends of the access roads to the village to keep the riff-raff out and stop unsavory types driving through the village "looking for places to burgle".

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Yes, a house near local amenities, like a butchers and green grocers and newsagent nearby.

The problem with things like bridal shops and wood burning stove shops is that it's not a very big market and everything is cheaper online. Eventually those shops will be converted back into houses, or maybe a couple of pricey "appartments".

Pretty soon the local pub which the rich folk only visit twice a year will shut, and become a "home with character" and the village will become cut off from the outside world.

These places will become gated communities within 5 years. All these traveling toff villages will.

Parish councils will put up automatic gates at the ends of the access roads to the village to keep the riff-raff out and stop unsavory types driving through the village "looking for places to burgle".

Sounds like the 18th Century. Gates and Tolls to stop the poor moving between towns and villages...

http://en.wikipedia...._United_Kingdom

London Riff Raff Charging

Tollgates_London_1801.jpg

Edited by AteMoose

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What I find quite funny is that you always get people complaining that their children can't afford to buy a house in the village that they grew up in because of the rich outsiders coming in. Move on a generation and the new villagers have the same complaint. Only fair really that the rich have first choice of where to live or at least I can't think of a fairer system.

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[1] not least because rich people moving to places like the Cotswolds have a fearsome propaganda machine telling us how hard-done-by motorists are, and no government dares to contradict them.

I suppose you mean the famous Cotswolder ... Jeremy Carkson

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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