Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
teddyboy

Are Asking Price Really Coming Down?

Recommended Posts

As a result of a previous thread I came up with a simple excel spreadsheet to work out the asking price vs the sold price. It could tell me the average overpricing for a POSTCODE and if I wanted - who was the biggest robbing b******** out of the lot.

My results of a small price range of £150,000>£180,000 in an area of L16 + 1/2 mile on rightmove came up with these results.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st=0&p=181764

Post Number 13

to download the template please go to this link

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=15021#

Post Number 10

This file has been virus checked.

Please fill this in and post the result back to us. If you want cover a wider area but please try and chose the ones that suit your price range. Mine is a buying price of about £140,000. You woul dbe surprised how much these £180,000 house are ACTUALLY selling for!!!!

Edited by teddyboy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am quite surprised that no-one has commented on this.

I think its important to know whether the EA's are reacting to price change or just upping the Asking price to compensate for offers.

These are my findings

Price_Chart.jpg

Get the template here

HPI_Template.zip

Please, in anything else, tell me you think its stupid idea. I think with this information it vvalidates you asking price of less 10/20/30/40%.

Thoughts anyone.

This file has been virus checked and is clean.

post-2719-1125924335_thumb.jpg

HPI_Template.zip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest rigsby II
I am quite surprised that no-one has commented on this.

Where did you get the EA asking prices from - Need proof. (Its your word - I'm not saying you are not lying - just making the point)

Have you a link or a cached/saved offline page with them on ?

The Corwen Crescent from 174,950 down to 35,000 is nonsense. Its a mistake. Problem is then how do we really know which are accurate and which are not.

Thats the problem I'm seeing myself. Can't believe the data sometimes.

If your figures are accurate, then theres some nice tasty drops.

Who is making these lower offers ? Are they FTB, BTL or family type homes ? Are FTB confident enough to make cheeky offers (in the real world and not virtual forum FTB) or is it experienced buyers ?

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, I agree that the Corwen Crescent stats make me unsure of the accuracy of this - perhaps the Corwen Crescent house was a different house, and sold under right to buy? There is no way on earth that a property advertised at £175,000 would go for £35,000 - are you sure it wasn't a different house sold under Right to Buy?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree totally the corwen one looks a bit silly but that is what the last house sold in corwen is according to www.houseprices.co.uk. If I was to choose another one - ie the highest ever achieved was £127,000 on 12/03/04 for number 8.

The EA's prices were from rightmove.

Area was L16 plus 1/2 mile surrouunding.

I typed in 3 bedroomed houses from £150K to £180 last night.

Type in corwen crescent liverpool in houseprices.co.uk.

Try yourselves - I have not botched figures.

BTW with relation to corwen it was another property in THAT STREET

Edited by teddyboy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm confused - perhaps you could explain your methodology? Have you simply found houses on sale now, and worked out what houses in that street went for before? If so, how can you be sure that you're comparing like with like? I know of one street close to me which has every type of housing - traditional flats, detached houses, cottages and terraces and the prices go from one extreme to the other. So how do you know for sure that your results from houseprices.co.uk are for 3 bed houses? Unless of course, I've misunderstood and you are looking at individual houses and what they went for?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My methodology is the style of house. I.e. If a terrace house in the street was up for say £140,000 in corwen street than I would look for house prices in corwen street that are TERRACED. The same methodology goes for the semi's.

Granted each house is differnt. But there are not many streets I am awar of that have a difference. We have some roads where the odds may be semi's and the evens may be terraced. But they are all of the same spec.

I find it disturbing that the difference in prices as SO huge. Yes a house with a conservatory may get a better price than one without. We need to remember tho, that houses are supposed to have dropped for the last 14 months and its a buyers market so why should you pay even last years top prices?

Make of this what you will, but I will ask this.

If you seen a house you liked for £170,000 and you seen the highest price that ANY house achieved in the same street was £130,000, in the so called boom time - what price would you pay?

I personally would match the highest achieved price at a push.

Edited by teddyboy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My methodology is the style of house. I.e. If a terrace house in the street was up for say £140,000 in corwen street than I would look for house prices in corwen street that are TERRACED. The same methodology goes for the semi's.

Granted each house is differnt. But there are not many streets I am awar of that have a difference. We have some roads where the odds may be semi's and the evens may be terraced. But they are all of the same spec.

I find it disturbing that the difference in prices as SO huge. Yes a house with a conservatory may get a better price than one without. We need to remember tho, that houses are supposed to have dropped for the last 14 months and its a buyers market so why should you pay even last years top prices?

Make of this what you will, but I will ask this.

If you seen a house you liked for £170,000 and you seen the highest price that ANY house achieved in the same street was £130,000, in the so called boom time - what price would you pay?

I personally would match the highest achieved price at a push.

With every respect for your noble intentions, surely we can see that prices are falling quite clearly without the need to fill in spreadsheets. Or maybe you want a nice chart?

VP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah, now I understand – its different houses, possibly at different times. OK, what about plotting the LR data as a scatter plot (date, price) in blue dots, and then adding the rightmove houses and those from old EA details (back issues of the free local rag?) in red. Then we could extract the HPI curves, estimate the average selling discount, and see other interesting stuff. :)

Edit: even better if you linked the old adverts to house numbers, and tied them to the LR data. Plots would a chain of reductions ending (or not) in a sale price.

Edited by spline

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With every respect for your noble intentions, surely we can see that prices are falling quite clearly without the need to fill in spreadsheets. Or maybe you want a nice chart?

VP

VP I sort of believe that they are dropping but certainly in Liverpool the Estate agents have been increasing asking price continually. The house in our road was on 9 months ago for £279,950 and has dropped to £215,000 and it still aint selling. Thats £65,000 dropped but the price of £215,000 for this area is STILL TOO HIGH. Otherwise it would have sold. If I was a betting man I think it will sell for about £180,000. Approx. £100,000 less than the initial valuation.

My point of this chart is to show which EA's are the ones pricing realistically and which are the robbing bastards. Also to show everyone that EA's are NOT reacting to market conditions - THEY ARE GREEDY!!

People dont see this and continue to get themselves up to their necks in debt.

Edited by teddyboy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[also to show everyone that EA's are NOT reacting to market conditions - THEY ARE GREEDY!!]

Definitely agree. House next door on the market Nov 2004 for 699k when house 4 doors along in same state sold May 2004 for 500k. House next door was reduced gradually to 599K - agents confident it would go around 550K! Apparently it's sold so waiting impatiently for land registry figures.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ah, now I understand – its different houses, possibly at different times. OK, what about plotting the LR data as a scatter plot (date, price) in blue dots, and then adding the rightmove houses and those from old EA details (back issues of the free local rag?) in red. Then we could extract the HPI curves, estimate the average selling discount, and see other interesting stuff.  :)

Edit: even better if you linked the old adverts to house numbers, and tied them to the LR data. Plots would a chain of reductions ending (or not) in a sale price.

My knowledge of excel is VERY limited. One of the reasons for doing this was to record the asking prices of properties. Then in 5 months I can see if the same property is still for sale and if they had dropped asking price.

Your idea is excellent - I wish I knew how to do it though :)

I am also interested in what the rest of the country is like. Thats why I am asking others to do the same - only need 30 properties or so. It takes about 45 minutes to complete.

I am the biggest OPTIMIST going but I just feel in Liverpool the EA's and Sellers are not playing ball. If I got a view of other areas I could see if we are LAGGING behind the rest of the country when it comes to REAL reductions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
VP I sort of believe that they are dropping but certainly in Liverpool the Estate agents have been increasing asking price continually. The house in our road was on 9 months ago for £279,950 and has dropped to £215,000 and it still aint selling. Thats £65,000 dropped but the price of £215,000 for this area is STILL TOO HIGH. Otherwise it would have sold. If I was a betting man I think it will sell for about £180,000. Approx. £100,000 less than the initial valuation.

My point of this chart is to show which EA's are the ones pricing realistically and which are the robbing bastards. Also to show everyone that EA's are NOT reacting to market conditions - THEY ARE GREEDY!!

People dont see this and continue to get themselves up to their necks in debt.

OK, point taken.

VP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.