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Yes, but the system can also work to advantage of the buyer if the seller is desperate and the buyer has a lot of other options. A couple of years back I heard of a few instances of gazundering where the buyer would demand the seller dropped the price in order to exchange contracts. Their rationale was that the house prices were falling and as a consequence they didn't want to pay as much anymore.

I don't blame the seller. Am more annoyed by the buyer who insisted on bidding on an under offer property. But at the end of the day, that's life and eventually there will be other houses!

I'm looking for 4 beds, so don't worry, and I don't intend to buy two 2 beds and convert them either :lol:

I think we're competing against each other then ...looking for 3bed poss 4 bed. Not willing to pay the stupid px, so feel free to get stuck in ...

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I'm seeing stalemate in Balham other than places in good school catchment area or really well presented. If Saturdays are booked up it is because agencies reduced their staff over a very quiet few months and haven't bolstered up Saturday staff yet ready for Spring interest. Agents of course also like to create a feel that all is busy and bouyant. It is the time of year when bonus holders come out to play so there will be some movement but I'd be amazed if it's the start of any new boom. If you go into housprices.co.uk and put in sw12 in sold prices you see the number of registered sales in SW12 - it's getting smaller and smaller by the month. December will get some more sales added, go back to October and you only see 47 sales for the whole of SW12 as opposed to 66 in Oct 2007

Need small stakes back with their analysis!

I'm flattered ... but it's BigPig you need. I specialise in occasional random postings littered with anecdotes, rather than hard facts and stats.

From Houseprices.co.uk, there were 22 sales in SW12 in January (up to 26/1, not sure how holiday affects it), 49 in December, 46 in November, 47 in October.

Anyone know when Houseprices.co.uk updates next?

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And people want a lot of cash for places that need a lot of work:

I saw a 2-bedroom flat on Sistova Road for sale, needed a complete revamp as it was a probate sale and the deceased had lived there for over 25/30 years. It was on for £420k initially, and then reduced to £400k.

Link: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-18264417.html

The most direct comparable is this one for sale on the same road - exact same layout (slightly bigger though?), in decent condition. Now at £450k, but been on the market for that price since January.

Link: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-27944794.html

The decent property will probably sell for circa £420k, and the unmodernised one needed about £40-50k of work. It went to sealed bids as there was some interest, and I believe it went for slightly more than £370k. Which surprised me, as that meant literally no profit for the stress in renovating, and also no leeway for anything that might go wrong.

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And people want a lot of cash for places that need a lot of work:

This is the truth. The properties that are done and have decent outdoor space get snapped up very quick. But the rest...well no one is buying. That's why there's so many viewings at the moment, there's quite a bit of undesirable stock (at their current prices) and a lot of optimistic second steppers wanting to buy Heaver or Nightinggale houses that haven't readjusted their expectations...

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One thing that's bothered me is supply (and if it's going up/down/moving sideways). Anecdotally there is still demand.

Rightmove has 477 for sale in SW12, with 292 not UO/SSTC/&c. That implies that 185 *are* UO/SSTC/&c.Obviously there will be dupes/places not on RM/&c.

"From Houseprices.co.uk, there were 22 sales in SW12 in January (up to 26/1, not sure how holiday affects it), 49 in December, 46 in November, 47 in October." Say the average is 47. Obviously Feb sales haven't come on to the website yet, will be interesting to see if Feb is back up to December levels.

UO/SSTC/&c 185/47 = 3.9 months of average sales right now. Obviously sales take time (3-4 months?) to work through the system &

then end up on houseprices.co.uk.

Available 292/47 = 6.2 months

Total = 10.1 months

Does that sound normal to anyone? I don't have any old stats to hand unfortunately.

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I think we're competing against each other then ...looking for 3bed poss 4 bed. Not willing to pay the stupid px, so feel free to get stuck in ...

Not anymore!

I've decided to move out and commute in from Surrey. For about 200k less than the 4 bed 2000sq foot terraces in SW12, I can get a 5 bed, 2500 sq foot house, with double garage, garden and good state schools (Balham seem very hit and miss).

I sacrifice 20 extra minutes per day commute, need to run a car to the station (or taxi), but save around 800 per month on mortgage payments...

So feel free to get stuck without bidding against me either :)

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Not anymore!

I've decided to move out and commute in from Surrey. For about 200k less than the 4 bed 2000sq foot terraces in SW12, I can get a 5 bed, 2500 sq foot house, with double garage, garden and good state schools (Balham seem very hit and miss).

I sacrifice 20 extra minutes per day commute, need to run a car to the station (or taxi), but save around 800 per month on mortgage payments...

So feel free to get stuck without bidding against me either :)

So £40/d roughly cheaper ... and you will probably have a better journey in, even if it's 20 minutes longer. Frankly the N line can be pretty grim - I tend to try to get on the tube by 645am to work by 730, otherwise I'll aim to get on after 845 - not worth it otherwise.

Balham primaries are generally v good (Ravenstone, Telferscot, H Cavendish, plus some of the RC or CofE ones). Secondary schools are not so good.

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Yes, Balham has got all sorts of quirks that make it desirable.

It's in Wandsworth (mostly) not Lambeth so it doesn't come with all the [email protected] you get living in Lambeth. But at the same time it's a bit more groovy than , say, Battersea or Wandsworth Town, it's more convenient than Earlsfield (and generally nicer) and Tooting. The High Road has got everything from market stalls to nice pubs and restuarants and coffee shops.

It feels as safe as the rest of Wandsworth, but much more trendy. I would be happy for my kids to grow up there, but I wouldn't be happy for them to nearer Brixton, say. So I think quite a few people think like that and so Balham becomes desirable.

But at a certain point prices get silly and people make alternative decisions - eg JPC going to Surrey. I think 1 million for a terraced house and £500 for 2-bed flats is silly.

And there are all sorts of weird stand-offs going on.

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Drove up Streatham High Road tonight ... looks like Jacksons' Streatham office has closed. They've got 4 or 5 other offices so might not be much of an indication, but surprising as they've always been a very good local EA (they do exist!). We've sold one place through them, and they were great.

http://www.jacksonsestateagents.com/streatham-estate-agents.aspx

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So £40/d roughly cheaper ... and you will probably have a better journey in, even if it's 20 minutes longer. Frankly the N line can be pretty grim - I tend to try to get on the tube by 645am to work by 730, otherwise I'll aim to get on after 845 - not worth it otherwise.

Balham primaries are generally v good (Ravenstone, Telferscot, H Cavendish, plus some of the RC or CofE ones). Secondary schools are not so good.

Yes, you're right, and indeed I've just had an offer accepted on a place this morning. It's a great house and ticks all the boxes... Good space, good light, good layout and away from main road. I did however feel a bit sorry for the people who loved their house but are moving in order to be more convenient for their one of their children who had special needs. (I have a lot of respect for people will to make such sacrifices).

Looking back, with the roughly £40 per day saving and how much more space I'm getting, I'm feeling in hindsight fairly pleased I got gazumped on the Balham place...

I agree, there are a few good schools like you mentioned. However Balham unfortunately has many houses where the nearest school is less desirable... Many of the schools unfortunately have pupils coming in at well below average ability for their age :(

If only people would force chavs to actually care for and educate their kids. (But that;s a different topic)

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Yes, Balham has got all sorts of quirks that make it desirable.

It's in Wandsworth (mostly) not Lambeth so it doesn't come with all the [email protected] you get living in Lambeth. But at the same time it's a bit more groovy than , say, Battersea or Wandsworth Town, it's more convenient than Earlsfield (and generally nicer) and Tooting. The High Road has got everything from market stalls to nice pubs and restuarants and coffee shops.

It feels as safe as the rest of Wandsworth, but much more trendy. I would be happy for my kids to grow up there, but I wouldn't be happy for them to nearer Brixton, say. So I think quite a few people think like that and so Balham becomes desirable.

But at a certain point prices get silly and people make alternative decisions - eg JPC going to Surrey. I think 1 million for a terraced house and £500 for 2-bed flats is silly.

And there are all sorts of weird stand-offs going on.

Agreed on the pricing. Much more value over in East Balham / West Streatham, but then you do have the Lambeth [email protected] to deal with!

The lower end of the market on Rightmove in SW12 seems to be going crazy ... loads under offer in the £350-500k flat range. Top end, less so - much less moving, and lots has been on Rightmove under offer for months, so I guess there are lots of chains.

The obvious point would be the people selling the low end (*) @ £500k are the guys & girls buying the top end @ £800k-1m and keeping things going. But there seems to be a lot more selling of the flats and a lot less buying of the houses, so not sure where the flat sellers are moving to. Perhaps moving out of London / renting?

Re-reading that sentence, it may have made no sense ...!

And (*) describing the low end as up to £500k is just mad. I posted elsewhere on this thread that we bought a 2 bed flat in Balham 10 years ago @ sub £250k, and that felt like a lot of money back then. To see prices now more than double is just crazy ... but good luck to people buying now.

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... I'm feeling in hindsight fairly pleased I got gazumped on the Balham place...

Can I ask how much you got gazumped by? For our only offer so far, we lost out by £50-75k I think. Which made me happy, made the missus less so.

Many of the schools unfortunately have pupils coming in at well below average ability for their age :(

Agreed - I'm stunned by how many people we know who are sending their kids privately. Can only assume they are funding it through a) loans b ) BoMaD c) MEW d) Grandparents. Although I guess after you've shelled out £10k or more for nursery, then private schools are less of a stretch.

I've got no issue with people having their kids privately educated ... suspect we will do the same if we are still in London. Just amazed by how much money is being shelled out ... £££ for the house, £££ in tax, £££ in private school fees.

Edited by small_stakes
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Can I ask how much you got gazumped by? For our only offer so far, we lost out by £50-75k I think. Which made me happy, made the missus less so.

Agreed - I'm stunned by how many people we know who are sending their kids privately. Can only assume they are funding it through a) loans b ) BoMaD c) MEW d) Grandparents. Although I guess after you've shelled out £10k or more for nursery, then private schools are less of a stretch.

I've got no issue with people having their kids privately educated ... suspect we will do the same if we are still in London. Just amazed by how much money is being shelled out ... £££ for the house, £££ in tax, £££ in private school fees.

I was gazumped by around £50k more than my original accepted offer. The vendor said they felt bad, but couldn't ignored the fact the extra 50k paid for 2 years school fees... I'm guessing most people on here would also take a higher offer even after accepting if the amount was sufficient...

The problem within London is, most parents who want to give the best for their kids and can afford it will send their kids to private kids, this leads to a vicious circle increasing divide of the haves and have nots.

As you say, and I agree, you can't really have a family in London unless you have £££ and even then will most likely be not any better off day to day than many an average family elsewhere in the country!

Another fact... the average age of women in NCT groups (baby classes) around Clapham common is about 33! - This suggests that most people in that area of London can't afford to have children until well into their careers (and just before the body clock says it's too late)!!

Edited by jcpricewatcher
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The obvious point would be the people selling the low end (*) @ £500k are the guys & girls buying the top end @ £800k-1m and keeping things going. But there seems to be a lot more selling of the flats and a lot less buying of the houses, so not sure where the flat sellers are moving to. Perhaps moving out of London / renting?

I've spoken to quite a few vendors of the 450-500k flats, almost universally they have indicated wanting to stay in the area but trade up to a house,

They fit into 3 profiles though:

1. You have those that bought maisonettes 6-7 years ago when Balham wasn't quite as frothy, they have household incomes (guessing here) of around 70-80k and can't afford to trade up to a Balham house and so instead look at Streatham Hill, Tooting Bec, and increasingly, Furzedown.

2. Young cash rich bankers/finance professionals who bought in the mini dip of 2008 trading up to Balham houses in Nightinggale, Heaver, or the Boundaries hub. They don't seem to be quite keen on Hydefarm or S'Hill (yet).

3. 35-40ish professionals with 1 kid, expecting/planning second lots of equity, household income around 100k, again wanting to trade up to the 3 prime areas of Balham (Heaver/Nightinggale/Boundaries Hub), but also including S'Hill/Telford/Hydefarm.

The majority in category 1 seem to be targeting big homes in Furzedown and you can see the prime stock there (pretoria road/park road for example) rising pretty steadily. Category 2, these guys seem location oriented from what I can tell. Category 3 are 'wait and seeers', the ones that are likely to sit on a good SVR and wont accept low offers.

People selling flats selling in Heaver/Wandsworth common side of Balham are much more likely to want to buy in the same area. Whereas sellers of flats on the Lambeth side seem much happier to look to the borders of the area.

So to answer your question, I think the disparity in Flat sales and House sales, are people from group 1 cashing out and buying out in Furzedown/Tooting/Streatham borders.

Edited by Aaron James
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People selling flats selling in Heaver/Wandsworth common side of Balham are much more likely to want to buy in the same area. Whereas sellers of flats on the Lambeth side seem much happier to look to the borders of the area.

So to answer your question, I think the disparity in Flat sales and House sales, are people from group 1 cashing out and buying out in Furzedown/Tooting/Streatham borders.

It makes sense, as the top-right quadrant from Balham to Streatham Hill that includes the Hyde Farm estate has some grungy bits, and even roads like Telford Avenue and Salford Road, closer to Streatham Hill than Balham, regularly have properties changing hands for £1m+. Of course, those are huge mansion properties.

If eventually Streatham Hill cleans up, we could see in a decade or two's time that another "triangle" is used by estate agents, one comprising of Balham station, Clapham South station, and Streatham Hill station as the three points of the triangle.

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One thing that's bothered me is supply (and if it's going up/down/moving sideways). Anecdotally there is still demand.

Rightmove has 477 for sale in SW12, with 292 not UO/SSTC/&c. That implies that 185 *are* UO/SSTC/&c.Obviously there will be dupes/places not on RM/&c.

"From Houseprices.co.uk, there were 22 sales in SW12 in January (up to 26/1, not sure how holiday affects it), 49 in December, 46 in November, 47 in October." Say the average is 47. Obviously Feb sales haven't come on to the website yet, will be interesting to see if Feb is back up to December levels.

UO/SSTC/&c 185/47 = 3.9 months of average sales right now. Obviously sales take time (3-4 months?) to work through the system &

then end up on houseprices.co.uk.

Available 292/47 = 6.2 months

Total = 10.1 months

Does that sound normal to anyone? I don't have any old stats to hand unfortunately.

Replying to my own post but hey ho ... http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=sw12&s=11&n=10 shows that 13 (thirteen) sales were registered between 28/1 and 15/2. So admittedly only a 2 week period, but unless HP.co.uk is missing some sales or still needs to be updated or more sales were registered in the 2nd half of Feb, that means there isn't much of a spring bounce. Will ask HP.co.uk to see if they have finished updating.

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I really don't think there's going to be a 'spring bounce' in Balham. Balham has been ahead of the curve for a bit, buyers (if they are like me) feel pretty safe to sit and wait as expectations of interest rate rises in July as well as the 2 year deals signed in 2008/09 expire on to unattractive SVRs take effect.

Question is, what are sellers going to do? I think a lot of people have been clinging on to the hope that it'll all blow over. Optimism amongst sellers, eventually, has to meet the new reality.

Even in SW12/17.

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Too tired to do the analysis, but pretty clear that the mix of flats/big houses sold has changed ... far fewer flats selling and a couple of expensive houses means prices go up!

This one is interesting, assuming it's the same house - £65k off, why would you pay £450-500k for a flat when you can get a house for not much more:

From HP:

7

04/02/2011

£530,000

Ter.

F

No

Map

19, Honeybrook Road, London, Greater London, SW12 0DP

From RM:

£595,000

Honeybrook Road, LONDON

3 bedroom terraced house

Marketed until 05 Feb 2011

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Two flats, 8pc off so pretty standard (and I would pay no more than £0 to live on Fernlea Rd, can't stand it for some reason ... no trees I think):

(1) From RM:

£399,950

Laitwood Road Balham London

3 bedroom flat

0

02/02/2011

From HP:

£374,000

Flat

L

No

Map

85a, Laitwood Road, London, Greater London, SW12 9QH

(2) From RM:

£399,950

Fernlea Road, Balham, SW12

2 bedroom flat

Marketed until 22 Jan 2011

From HP:

03/02/2011

£380,000

Flat

L

No

Map

33b, Fernlea Road, London, Greater London, SW12 9R

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I really don't think there's going to be a 'spring bounce' in Balham. Balham has been ahead of the curve for a bit, buyers (if they are like me) feel pretty safe to sit and wait as expectations of interest rate rises in July as well as the 2 year deals signed in 2008/09 expire on to unattractive SVRs take effect.

Question is, what are sellers going to do? I think a lot of people have been clinging on to the hope that it'll all blow over. Optimism amongst sellers, eventually, has to meet the new reality.

Even in SW12/17.

100pc agree with all you say but ... 222 two/three bed flats for sale in SW12, of which 95 are under offer. So either there are a lot of pent up sales to come through (this looks like 4 or 5 months worth of flat sales to come through) or the spring bounce is coming. I really need to get out and go and visit some more EAs to find out what's going on (although it'll be the usual "buy now, not much supply, lots of City bonuses buying here").

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100pc agree with all you say but ... 222 two/three bed flats for sale in SW12, of which 95 are under offer. So either there are a lot of pent up sales to come through (this looks like 4 or 5 months worth of flat sales to come through) or the spring bounce is coming. I really need to get out and go and visit some more EAs to find out what's going on (although it'll be the usual "buy now, not much supply, lots of City bonuses buying here").

It depends which agents you talk to from my experience. Jacksons and Kinleys are very bullish but Atkinsons, Marsh Parsons, Douglas and Gordons seem to have balanced view. And The Heaver lady lives on a different planet...

Andrews are very real in their view. Mostly the bulls just say prices are rising get in now, then call back every two weeks after a viewing to let you know a lower offer might be accepted.

Foxtons are funny though they seem to have very few instructions, and most of the balham viewings I have had have been out of their battersea office. I get the feeling foxtons are refocussing in lettings at the moment.

Looking at the number of transactions on the sales side, maybe they aren't stupid.

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(Caveat: they may not be the same place)

From HP:

11

31/01/2011

£250,000

Flat

L

No

Map

73, Cambray Road, Balham, London, Greater London, SW12 0ER

From RM:

£295,000

Cambray Road

2 bedroom flat

Marketed until 05 Feb 2011

Its interesting that you flagged this sale up, as it piqued my attention too when looking through. Standard 2-bed flats on Cambray have been selling for circa £380k-£400k (approx 70sqm), but this one is definitely much cheaper. The reason being, probably, because it is in a "council-looking" block on the road, and also on the small side.

Generally seeing that properties that have flaws (e.g.council, too small, not a nice street) are not selling or selling for alot less when they do, and decent properties are holding up their prices extremely well.

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