Balham Sw12 Hydefarm

[mk1mini]

Well, I spoke too soon. I got gazumped. Fortunately I hadn't paid any money out on solicitors or mortgage applications.

[small_stakes]

So it's totally depressing for any HPC fans ... this place, 1100 sq ft (so no loft conversion, side return not done, looks ok inside but certainly not done up) has gone under offer near asking of £790k:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-24229989.html

If it sells for near that, it'll need £150k worth of work which means it'll be a lot more expensive than this one (which I've been inside, and is lovely) which had the side return/loft conversion/all mod cons inside:

10th Aug 2010

63 Pentney Road, London SW12 0PA

Terraced, Freehold, -- Beds, -- Baths, -- Receps - Edit

£800,500

Compared to local prices, it makes this place look like a comparative bargain:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-24229986.html

Who are these idiots off, how come they have so much money (or are able to get such a big mortgage), and can I join them?

Yours

Bitter & twisted of Balham

[TeddyBear]

Down the road in Tooting they seem to be on a roll too, places coming on sale for 2007 price +10% + 20% and some are selling, others never appear on the sold prices so presumably go to rent or the people stay put. Meanwhile, in Mitcham and Streatham, things are much stickier. I am wondering if it is down to where school are? Wandsworth is in line for several new middle class run free schools.

[the flying pig]

So it's totally depressing for any HPC fans ... this place, 1100 sq ft (so no loft conversion, side return not done, looks ok inside but certainly not done up) has gone under offer near asking of £790k:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-24229989.html

If it sells for near that, it'll need £150k worth of work which means it'll be a lot more expensive than this one (which I've been inside, and is lovely) which had the side return/loft conversion/all mod cons inside:

10th Aug 2010

63 Pentney Road, London SW12 0PA

Terraced, Freehold, -- Beds, -- Baths, -- Receps - Edit

£800,500

Compared to local prices, it makes this place look like a comparative bargain:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-24229986.html

Who are these idiots off, how come they have so much money (or are able to get such a big mortgage), and can I join them?

Yours

Bitter & twisted of Balham

that is exceptionally depressing.

say it goes for £775k.

say it's bought by an early 30s couple with [plucking a round number out of the air] a total of £250k in savings & unearned housing equity, i.e. no small sum. That'd leave them needing to borrow £525k.

If we assume that 3* joint salary is the limit of responsible lending then they'd need joint earnings of £175k p.a. - this would point towards very very extreme, breakneck gentrification of the area, people with city-ish money only. A [in that area] blue-collar household would be being replaced by a whitest of the white-collar white one.

More likely IMO is that you're probably mostly talking about looser lending than that, e.g. 4* joint salary implying a required joint salary of 'only' about £130k p.a. and therefore only 'quite extreme gentrification' combined with a big ramping up of household debt.

Edited October 23, 2012 by the flying pig

[Boon]

say it's bought by an early 30s couple with [plucking a round number out of the air] a total of £250k in savings & unearned housing equity, i.e. no small sum. That'd leave them needing to borrow £525k.

Definitely not an early 30s couple. Average age of first house-buyer these days = 35-40. Average age of first baby, around the same too. Especially when looking at professional, urban couples both in full time employment.

And a couple with only one kid doesn't need 3 bedrooms. But one with two kids do. And they really only need the 3 bedrooms once the kids are about 3-4 years old, so you're really looking at the couple in their early 40s.

£150k joint salary at 4.5x will mean mortgage of £675k, and with a 20% deposit, that's a 3-bedroom flat/house price of £845k. Welcome to the new normal in London.

[the flying pig]

Definitely not an early 30s couple. Average age of first house-buyer these days = 35-40. Average age of first baby, around the same too. Especially when looking at professional, urban couples both in full time employment.

And a couple with only one kid doesn't need 3 bedrooms. But one with two kids do. And they really only need the 3 bedrooms once the kids are about 3-4 years old, so you're really looking at the couple in their early 40s.

£150k joint salary at 4.5x will mean mortgage of £675k, and with a 20% deposit, that's a 3-bedroom flat/house price of £845k. Welcome to the new normal in London.

clearly we're both just plucking numbers out of the air here, but here's a couple more from me.

on childbearing age - i, regrettably, have recent first hand experience of Wandsworth/Balham National Childbirth Trust meetings. At 32/33 during the course [33 when she gave birth] my wife was, marginally, the oldest mother in the group. in my experience [not based on a sample size that's big enough to be 'statistically significant' but nonetheless based on meeting dozens of recent middle class mums in the area] there's a huge glut of 'professional' first time mums giving birth at 31, 32, 33... 35 would be far from unheard of but there's no doubt at all that it'd be unusually old to be a first time mum.

on income - £150k joint is clearly far from unheard of, but even in London [a city with a population nudging towards 10m] the number of such households is in the very low six figures at best. unless the City expands massively [somethign it did do in the 90s & early 00s but doesn't seem likely to do anytime soon] there aren't going to be enough such households to sustain very high prices .

4.5 joint lending is, regrettably, not all that uncommon for borrowers with big deposits, but it's not the norm, or in my opinion, very sustainable... households borrowing 4.5 will struggle badly when rates return to medium-high territory, or when they drop to one income. they'll crack like, er, an egg if both happens.

not sure about the 'number of bedrooms' stuff. there definitely aren't going to be enough 3-plus child moneyed families to fill all the many 4-plus bed houses in London.

on age of buying - anyone aged 40+, unless very senior, is already starting to become somewhat vulnerable to some form of workplace age discrimination. it won't be at all sustainable for a generation of 40+ year olds to start taking on, as in your example, 80% LTV mortgages. it can't happen.

Edited October 24, 2012 by the flying pig

[small_stakes]

Trouble is we're having to deal with letters like these ... from ****** balham ... "Dear Sir/Madam Re. Specific Request for a house on &c &c ... I have been asked by one of my applicants, M* C***** B****, to find her a house with at least three bedrooms specifically on &c &c. She's chain-free and has finance in place with a £3**k deposit. Although she would like to find a house as soon as possible, she's flexible with regards to moving dates. Please forgive the direct approach, but if you would like to speak to me in confidence about the possibility of selling, do call me on my direct line 020 8772 **** or e-mail me at ****@******.co.uk"

[SHERWICK]

on income - £150k joint is clearly far from unheard of, but even in London [a city with a population nudging towards 10m] the number of such households is in the very low six figures at best.

Low six figures maybe, but how many houses are available in London for these £150k joint 100,000 people (low 6 figures) in the areas that they want to lilve in (as they are £150k joint, that probably excludes about 50% of London.

How many houses are available each year to buy?

[the flying pig]

Low six figures maybe, but how many houses are available in London for these £150k joint 100,000 people (low 6 figures) in the areas that they want to lilve in (as they are £150k joint, that probably excludes about 50% of London.

How many houses are available each year to buy?

yeah, i mean, my earlier reference to plucking numbers out of the air was hinting at the nonsense of trying to 'reason' your way around such things, e.g.:

• most £150k households already own a house;

• most houses aren't for sale;

• more £150k households are created every year;

• many £150k households [e.g. when their kids are towards the end of primary school] move out to the suburbs every year.

so really this is all conjecture.

looking at those streets in Balham where the under 35's are, to a man, ueberwhitecollar & few of the over 55's have ever been more than moderately skilled workers, there are similar streets [in terms of social mix] in loads of other parts of the capital.

my fairly strong instinct is that, unless the city expands really significantly, i doubt there'll ever be enough ueberwhitecollar [current or retired] people to fill all of those streets, the ones that are currently mixed. for a some areas & streets there will, clearly, but, unless the city expands loads, not enough for all of them. Balham streets might end up being amongst the few. Or might not.

Edited October 25, 2012 by the flying pig

[yakety_sax]

Have been a lurker for a while found this website a good resource when i bought my house a while ago and hopefully someone finds this interesting/useful!

I dont think people on this board really realise how much money people have access to. Lot of couples im friends from uni with both with good jobs having two decent incomes. Parental help is widespread too, I have a few friends whose parents lent/gave them hundreds of thousands of pounds, they see giving away this money now as avoiding IHT. think their parents made this cash in btl/maggies privatisations/generous redundancy lump sums. Talk about a "mortgage drought" is rubbish, my bank was happy to lend up to 4.75 our joint salary, including half average bonuses over the past 3 years.

Supply is absolutely horrible, very little new comes up on the market. we looked at through everything that had traded in the previous year in the areas we were interested (on the landregistry site) and there were maybe 3 houses (!) where we thought it was a house we wanted at a price we wanted to pay, so once a house that we liked came up at a price we liked came up we didnt mess about and bought it. why would you sell a house in balham? most houses on the market are ones where someone died or moving abroad etc. if you wanted to move from sw london out to the countryside the stamp duty plus EA fees etc on selling the old place could be £80-100k so obviously hardly anyone does it seems.

We were keen to buy cos

-rent is £20k a year of dead money and our rent goes up 5-10% each year

-this is the biggest recession since the 1930s and house prices are up 20% in london, what on earth is gonna happen when things recover?!

-supporting house prices is the keystone of government/boe policy meaning rates will remain low for a long time. most mps have btl portfolios, turkeys dont vote for xmas.

-weak pound plus the above means london property is very desirable to foreigners seeking a safe investment (london property about 40% cheaper in swiss francs than in 2007?)

-strong demand for rental means if we do get into trouble we could rent out the other 3 rooms if necessary

-london economy seemingly bulletproof, restaurants and shops still busy as ever etc

-lots of affluent couples putting off buying, thinking there would be some kind of correction, hence lots of pent up demand

some people here seem to think of balham as some slightly edgy blue collar area turned good - we see it as underpriced prime SW london, its slightly cheaper than putney, fulham, barnes, clapham junction, wimbledon etc but the houses are decent size, have decent gardens, loads of green spaces, great transport links with the tube and overground, only 6miles from the city, not too many horrible estates nearby etc etc.

one thing that really stuck me is how expensive "up and coming" areas are, for example peckham/east dulwich is only about 10-15% cheaper than balham, which is stupid considering the difference in the areas. would have loved to buy in an up and coming area but theres no point, might as well just pay up a bit more and live somewhere nice.

[Dorkins]

I dont think people on this board really realise how much money people have access to.

I'm sure they do, the question is how much longer they are going to have access to this money. The financial sector grew rapidly in the 1920s and then shrank in the wake of the 1930s depression. This time round we had Big Bang but not the pullback. Yet.

[the flying pig]

...I dont think people on this board really realise how much money people have access to. Lot of couples im friends from uni with both with good jobs having two decent incomes. Parental help is widespread too, I have a few friends whose parents lent/gave them hundreds of thousands of pounds, they see giving away this money now as avoiding IHT. think their parents made this cash in btl/maggies privatisations/generous redundancy lump sums. Talk about a "mortgage drought" is rubbish, my bank was happy to lend up to 4.75 our joint salary, including half average bonuses over the past 3 years.

Supply is absolutely horrible, very little new comes up on the market. we looked at through everything that had traded in the previous year in the areas we were interested (on the landregistry site) and there were maybe 3 houses (!) where we thought it was a house we wanted at a price we wanted to pay, so once a house that we liked came up at a price we liked came up we didnt mess about and bought it. why would you sell a house in balham? most houses on the market are ones where someone died or moving abroad etc. if you wanted to move from sw london out to the countryside the stamp duty plus EA fees etc on selling the old place could be £80-100k so obviously hardly anyone does it seems.

We were keen to buy cos

-rent is £20k a year of dead money and our rent goes up 5-10% each year

-this is the biggest recession since the 1930s and house prices are up 20% in london, what on earth is gonna happen when things recover?!

-supporting house prices is the keystone of government/boe policy meaning rates will remain low for a long time. most mps have btl portfolios, turkeys dont vote for xmas.

-weak pound plus the above means london property is very desirable to foreigners seeking a safe investment (london property about 40% cheaper in swiss francs than in 2007?)

-strong demand for rental means if we do get into trouble we could rent out the other 3 rooms if necessary

-london economy seemingly bulletproof, restaurants and shops still busy as ever etc

-lots of affluent couples putting off buying, thinking there would be some kind of correction, hence lots of pent up demand

some people here seem to think of balham as some slightly edgy blue collar area turned good - we see it as underpriced prime SW london, its slightly cheaper than putney, fulham, barnes, clapham junction, wimbledon etc but the houses are decent size, have decent gardens, loads of green spaces, great transport links with the tube and overground, only 6miles from the city, not too many horrible estates nearby etc etc.

one thing that really stuck me is how expensive "up and coming" areas are, for example peckham/east dulwich is only about 10-15% cheaper than balham, which is stupid considering the difference in the areas. would have loved to buy in an up and coming area but theres no point, might as well just pay up a bit more and live somewhere nice.

You make a number of points, some fair, others less so - taken as a whole they read a bit estate agent-ish but anyway, a couple that caught my eye in particular:

“I dont think people on this board really realise how much money people have access to.” – daft thing to say given all of the earlier comments on this thread.

“. Talk about a "mortgage drought" is rubbish, my bank was happy to lend up to 4.75 our joint salary, including half average bonuses over the past 3 years” – it’s absolutely true that lending standards to people with decent deposits [only] are very slack by historical standards. I’m sure that this has played a big part in the way that prices in areas that city workers buy in have held up so well.

“why would you sell a house in balham?” – uh, same reason that people always have, to change the place that they live. Gross rental yield on big houses in Balham is fairly pathetic. You’re right to say that stamp duty strongly disincentivises moving between relatively expensive houses, but this means both fewer buyers & fewer sellers.

[Jason74]

some people here seem to think of balham as some slightly edgy blue collar area turned good - we see it as underpriced prime SW london, its slightly cheaper than putney, fulham, barnes, clapham junction, wimbledon etc but the houses are decent size, have decent gardens, loads of green spaces, great transport links with the tube and overground, only 6miles from the city, not too many horrible estates nearby etc etc.

one thing that really stuck me is how expensive "up and coming" areas are, for example peckham/east dulwich is only about 10-15% cheaper than balham, which is stupid considering the difference in the areas. would have loved to buy in an up and coming area but theres no point, might as well just pay up a bit more and live somewhere nice.

Some interesting stuff here, and much in the post that I would agree with (especially the bit about lenders still falling over themselves to throw money at "quality" borrowers). But I had to pick up on the bit I've quoted. Belham [is/b] a "slightly edgy blue collar area turned good". Indeed, apart from the slightly, that's probably the best description of the place I've ever heard. I grew up in South London, and my Grandmother lived between Balham and Clapham South Stations (my Mum actually grew up in that flat), so we used to visit a lot. As late as the early 90s, that neck of the woods was still very much considered an out and out dodgy area that you avoided if you could, and while it has come up a long way since then, there's still no comparison between somewhere like Balham, and places like Barnes, Putney and Wimbledon (and I say that as someone who is regularly in Balham for work).

If anything, I'd say relative to other parts of South London, Balham is probably overpriced if you were looking at things on a cost v niceness scale. Not as excessive as Peckham (which really is crazy money given what the area is like) but more expensive than it should be (even allowing for silly prices in London generally). It remains imho a long way from being something that could be described as "prime SW London"

[Mrs Bear]

Some interesting stuff here, and much in the post that I would agree with (especially the bit about lenders still falling over themselves to throw money at "quality" borrowers). But I had to pick up on the bit I've quoted. Belham [is/b] a "slightly edgy blue collar area turned good". Indeed, apart from the slightly, that's probably the best description of the place I've ever heard. I grew up in South London, and my Grandmother lived between Balham and Clapham South Stations (my Mum actually grew up in that flat), so we used to visit a lot. As late as the early 90s, that neck of the woods was still very much considered an out and out dodgy area that you avoided if you could, and while it has come up a long way since then, there's still no comparison between somewhere like Balham, and places like Barnes, Putney and Wimbledon (and I say that as someone who is regularly in Balham for work).

If anything, I'd say relative to other parts of South London, Balham is probably overpriced if you were looking at things on a cost v niceness scale. Not as excessive as Peckham (which really is crazy money given what the area is like) but more expensive than it should be (even allowing for silly prices in London generally). It remains imho a long way from being something that could be described as "prime SW London"

Tooting is hardly prime SW either but prices are going bonkers there lately, at least in the small area I've been watching. A 2 bed maisonette that sold for £250K about 18 months ago is just now back on the market for £365K - I nearly choked on my coffee. They did quite a lot of work on it (daughter and I viewed it before the last sale) before renting it out for an AP of £1500 pcm. But it can't have been anything like £100K's worth. Presumably the tenants can now go hang.

Would guess that they decided on this after seeing another in the road, same layout and sq. m) on the market for £340K recently, U/O very quickly and now on nethouseprices), sold for £320K.

Previous highest sold price for this type of m/ette was £290K, (early 2011 I think) and that one had been extended.

These are all period m/ettes with a better and more spacious layout than most, few of this type available, and on a relatively nice, quiet road still only about 10 mins walk from T. Broadway, but that still doesn't explain this sort of price hike.

Edited November 5, 2012 by Mrs Bear

[mk1mini]

Tooting is hardly prime SW either but prices are going bonkers there lately, at least in the small area I've been watching. A 2 bed maisonette that sold for £250K about 18 months ago is just now back on the market for £365K - I nearly choked on my coffee. They did quite a lot of work on it (daughter and I viewed it before the last sale) before renting it out for an AP of £1500 pcm. But it can't have been anything like £100K's worth. Presumably the tenants can now go hang.

Would guess that they decided on this after seeing another in the road, same layout and sq. m) on the market for £340K recently, U/O very quickly and now on nethouseprices), sold for £320K.

Previous highest sold price for this type of m/ette was £290K, (early 2011 I think) and that one had been extended.

These are all period m/ettes with a better and more spacious layout than most, few of this type available, and on a relatively nice, quiet road still only about 10 mins walk from T. Broadway, but that still doesn't explain this sort of price hike.

I have recently moved from East Putney to Balham and Balham is not as nice as East Putney, but it is a lot quieter with the planes. The Wandsworth Common side of Balham is very nice and has some great pubs and restaurants, and some excellent schools which places like Tooting miss. Some of the ex-council flats and houses on the small estates (20-30homes) around Balham represent excellent value compared to a period flat in Tooting.

[the flying pig]

I'm sure they do, the question is how much longer they are going to have access to this money. The financial sector grew rapidly in the 1920s and then shrank in the wake of the 1930s depression. This time round we had Big Bang but not the pullback. Yet.

the amazing thing is how much the city has contracted by without hitting HPs... e.g. see this story from today... "...The number of City-style jobs peaked at 354,134 in 2007; they are now down to just 249,512, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), and will fall to 237,036 in 2013 and 236,494 in 2014, the lowest since 1993..."... but, conservatively, Balham HPs are, what, 10-20% up from late 2007, especially for bigger houses? the same's true in many other comparable areas.

estate agents can chunter all they like about the squillions of very high earners out there, but the fact is that, high as this number may be, both total number of employees & total pay/bonuses are well, well down from peak.

all I can really think is... that... the age profile of the city has changed... and that, en masse, a large slice of the big waves of people who first joined in the huge hiring gluts preceding the bursting of the dotcomm bubble in 2001 & then debt bubble in 2007, are reaching family house buying age... or something.

[Mrs Bear]

That £365K Tooting m/ette I mentioned a couple of days ago is already under offer.

[Aaron James]

Been a while but looking around seeing what the prices are like at the moment and saw this one and nearly fell off my chair.

2 bed flat, no dedicated living room, builders spec finish. 550k.

Foxtons are trying to play the KFH, Aspire game of telling vendors stupid numbers to get their instructions.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40835453.html

Even in this frothy market I can't see that one going > 500k.

[SHERWICK]

Been a while but looking around seeing what the prices are like at the moment and saw this one and nearly fell off my chair.

2 bed flat, no dedicated living room, builders spec finish. 550k.

Foxtons are trying to play the KFH, Aspire game of telling vendors stupid numbers to get their instructions.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40835453.html

Even in this frothy market I can't see that one going > 500k.

That's ridiculous. V small and a northerly facing garden too - not what you want.

[mk1mini]

That's ridiculous. V small and a northerly facing garden too - not what you want.

I nearly fell off my chair! That's a generous 1 bedroom flat, not a two bed and I'd price it at £450k in 'current conditions'. No way anyone would stump up £20k stamp duty for that. Crazy.

Edited April 19, 2013 by mk1mini

[the flying pig]

Been a while but looking around seeing what the prices are like at the moment and saw this one and nearly fell off my chair.

2 bed flat, no dedicated living room, builders spec finish. 550k.

Foxtons are trying to play the KFH, Aspire game of telling vendors stupid numbers to get their instructions.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40835453.html

Even in this frothy market I can't see that one going > 500k.

if that place [a mile from the tube, no proper living room] breaches £500k then we [society, i mean] are lost.

on a personal level i'd find it rather galling since i sold a considerably better place [worse finish but bigger & better located] for a lot less for a price agreed 15 months or so ago.

[Aaron James]

Prices both asking and completing have gone up a lot here in the past 12 months. I thought it might cool down as the bankers felt the effects of the mess they helped cause, but it it hasn't really affected the lower end of the market.

But this place is on the wrong road for that sort of asking price. If it was Haverhill, Scholars or Pentney or even the park end of Telford / Rastell Ave I could maybe understand it. But Cambray and Midmoor are probably among the least desirable roads in Hyde Farm.

Anyway it'll be a very interesting one to watch and see what it ends up going for. Maybe high 400s, but definitely not > 500.

[Aaron James]

Prices both asking and completing have gone up a lot here in the past 12 months. I thought it might cool down as the bankers felt the effects of the mess they helped cause, but it it hasn't really affected the lower end of the market.

But this place is on the wrong road for that sort of asking price. If it was Haverhill, Scholars or Pentney or even the park end of Telford / Rastell Ave I could maybe understand it. But Cambray and Midmoor are probably among the least desirable roads in Hyde Farm.

Anyway it'll be a very interesting one to watch and see what it ends up going for. Maybe high 400s, but definitely not > 500.

[Boon]

Prices both asking and completing have gone up a lot here in the past 12 months. I thought it might cool down as the bankers felt the effects of the mess they helped cause, but it it hasn't really affected the lower end of the market.

But this place is on the wrong road for that sort of asking price. If it was Haverhill, Scholars or Pentney or even the park end of Telford / Rastell Ave I could maybe understand it. But Cambray and Midmoor are probably among the least desirable roads in Hyde Farm.

Anyway it'll be a very interesting one to watch and see what it ends up going for. Maybe high 400s, but definitely not > 500.

What about this one on Emmanuel road, 2 bedroom maisonette, leasehold, ground floor. Asking for £550k!!! Just put on by Jacksons.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41374325.html

[Aaron James]

What about this one on Emmanuel road, 2 bedroom maisonette, leasehold, ground floor. Asking for £550k!!! Just put on by Jacksons.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41374325.html

Emmanuel Road, if it's in top-spec is probably 500+ at the moment. The 1st floor flats probably could achieve 550 actually. So that one isn't (sadly) completely off the richter scale.