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Steppenpig

Balham Sw12 Hydefarm

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I just thought I'd start keeping a note of prices on the Hydefarm Estate in Balham, specifically 3-bedroom houses on the Hydethorpe, Scholars, Pentney, and Haverhill Roads. The houses on these roads are extremely uniform, and prices only vary depending on the condition of the property, although it has become a little bit complicated due to quite a few loft extensions having been put in recently.

This is a long term project with the vague idea that one day I may be able to compare advertised prices with the ultimate Land Registry sale price. I have decide to start at this time because I believe that the current ratio of "sold subject to contract" to unsold houses is unusually high, and this seems to me to portend an imminent crash (or possibly, another bubble!) And in about ten years time I might be thinking of buying something there.

ratio "on offer"/"under offer" ("on offer"/total)

SW12: 38/21 (38/59)

Hydefarm: 1/6 (yes, that's the right way round)

under offer

715,000 Haverhill

very good conditionn, extra bathroom so must have loft extension, kitchen appears to be extended

699,950 Scholars

good condition, kitchen extended sideways

695,000 Haverhil

good condition

649,950 Haverhill

Average codition, small kitchen

649,950 Haverhill

good condition, nice kitchen

649,950 Hydethorpe

average condition

630, Haverhill

cheap looking refurb

To which we can add the only house not under offer

on offer

Hydethorpe 609,950

average - good condition

Edited by BigPig

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On this occasion I'll also mention the figures for 4-bed houses

ratio "on offer"/"under offer" ("on offer"/total)

SW12: 30/15 (30/45)

HF: 0/5 yes....

So for all houses on the Hydefarm estate, there are 11 under offer, and only one available. And the one available looks nicer, and is 40k cheaper than a couple of those under offer.

for the record

785,000 Pentney

735,000 Pentney

729,950 Haverhill

699,950 Hydethorpe

600,000 Hydethorpe

The last one is described as "for development or investment" so I'm ignoring it.

These, as mentioned, are identical to the three bed houses, but have loft extensions, so consequently tend to be also in recently refurbished condition.

Edited by BigPig

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There are two 3-bed houses to rent (I won't bother linking them) for 480pw on Scholars and 350pw on Hydethorpe. Rents (as advertised) seem much more erratic than house prices (from property to property, that is - over time they are more stable).

They typically seem to be in the 400pw to 500pw for very similar looking properties.

Just to the maths:

rent: say 450pw = 23,400pa (crikey that's scarey)

buy: say 650,000 @ 5%pa = 32,500 (even scarier)

So that looks getting on for 1/3 overvalued to me. Even at current low interest rates.

Edited by BigPig

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There are two 3-bed houses to rent (I won't bother linking them) for 480pw on Scholars and 350pw on Hydethorpe. Rents (as advertised) seem much more erratic than house prices (from property to property, that is - over time they are more stable).

They typically seem to be in the 400pw to 500pw for very similar looking properties.

Just to the maths:

rent: say 450pw = 23,400pa (crikey that's scarey)

buy: say 650,000 @ 5%pa = 32,500 (even scarier)

So that looks getting on for 1/3 overvalued to me. Even at current low interest rates.

Bigpig, some may think this kind of detailed data analysis is a trifle 'anorak', but to me and hopefuly other HPC'ers, you are another unsung hero on HPC.co.uk. providing a service trhat Rightmove is never ever going to offer.

Do please keep us all posted with your results as they become apparent.

j5t

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Interesting, thanks for this. Been looking at this area (lower end, conversion flats not houses) with a friend recently who wants to buy as has an inheritance. After a slow 2008 it seems to have picked up last year and now be selling for over peak 2007 prices? I presume this is trickle out from from the foreign money that has come into zone 1 & 2. I don't know what to say to her really. On the one hand everything is saying prices will fall but no sign of it at the moment in that area. I suppose that this might change when interest rates go up but that could be a long time yet and she is very worried about having the lump sum in the bank. It's hard when people ask your opinion to say you don't have one!

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'anorak'

I'm hoping that by spending an hour or two once a month or once a quarter recording it accurately, I might actually spend less time than I currently do browsing rightmove practically every week.

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After a slow 2008 it seems to have picked up last year and now be selling for over peak 2007 prices?

I agree they went back up to the peak levels, but I am really hoping they have turned down again. At the peak "ordinary" houses were being listed in the high 600k, and it now looks as if they are coming on in the low 600k.

I sympathise with your dilemma. I think you have to accept that we're all going to have to pay for the excesses of the past decades. Some of those assets we thought we owned, whether houses or money in the bank, are going to be eroded. It's almost impossible to say who is going to lose most, because it's in the hands of the government and the BoE.

Would it be possible to spend half the money on somewhere smaller and cheaper? It could be quite handy having some savings in the bank, even if they are being eroded by inflation, if the economy deteriorates and people are being made redundant, for example.

Edited by BigPig

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I shall watch with interest, I'm looking in this area in the wider sense, mostly in the streets off and around the high road/in the slightly more immediate vicinity of the station.

3.5% gross rental yield is bog standard for the area.

AFAIK asking prices in this area never dipped below peak selling prices but there were a a fair number of cheap selling prices and hardly any 'peak price plus' ones at all. I am pretty sure a place on Laitwood Road that was up for auction a year or so ago went for a [it's all relative] lowish price all things considered...

Edited by the flying pig

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Interesting - I don't live too far away and have been watching prices. My (anecdotal) evidence is that selling prices are well under 700 now on Scholars, Haverhill, Pentney, Hydethorpe but people are still buying because they want to be near the two primary schools. Secondary schools are not so great though.

Round the corner I know but this is my favourite one: £500k for a small converted flat!

http://property.jphomes.co.uk/salesPropertyDetails.do?p=74418

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September update:

3 bed house ratio: sw12 37/19, Hydefarm 1/6

4 bed house ratio: sw12 32/16, Hydefarm 2/5

The under offers remain unchanged. The price of the 3-bed under offer ("A08") has reduced to 599,950.

There are two new 4. beds on the market.

B06 769,950 Scholars

Simple but nicely decorated (magnolia).

B07 749,950 Scholars

Looks a little dated, but freshly painted (white). Pebble dash exterior.

Rentals: 3-beds at 480 and 425pw on Scholars. The 350 Hydethorpe is now "let agreed"

(Hydethorpe is a bit more variable than the other streets. I may drop it in future, but with just the other 3 streets there may be too little movement)

Edited by BigPig

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Well done, Bigpig.

I'm on the other side of the High Road, renting, just moved to the area from Earlsfield.

More groovy than Earlsfield, less in-your-face than Clapham, don't I love Balham. But prices, whooh.

Amazed at how many For Sale signs there currently seem to be. Hoping this portends lower prices. But you can't fault Balham for its desirability.

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Well done, Bigpig.

I'm on the other side of the High Road, renting, just moved to the area from Earlsfield.

More groovy than Earlsfield, less in-your-face than Clapham, don't I love Balham. But prices, whooh.

Amazed at how many For Sale signs there currently seem to be. Hoping this portends lower prices. But you can't fault Balham for its desirability.

I'm not amazed, Balham is a horribly overpriced / overrated area which is just basically an extension of Clapham for the Tarquin & Talulah's of this world.

It's amazing what a Starbucks & Pizza Express can do for House prices. :rolleyes:

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I'm guessing someone really needs to sell ... Asking px down £125,050 in 6 weeks.

Slightly o/s the Hyde Farm search area (well, actually a lot further south, between the two Commons):

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31032668.html

Right by the Commons, bit in the middle of nowhere for transport - must be a 25min walk up & down Bedford Hill (which is a busy road) to Balham tube, and 15-20m into the Streatham badlands for either Streatham or Streatham Hill stations (rail but no tube). Nice little side road off the main road, but near the railway line & the Streatham/Clapham School.

Price history:

Friday, October 29, 2010 1:17:33 AM

* Price changed: from '£799,950' to '£749,950'

Friday, October 08, 2010 9:39:08 AM

* Price changed: from '£839,950' to '£799,950' [Found by n/a]

Thursday, September 16, 2010 7:48:05 AM

* Price changed: from '£875,000' to '£839,950' [Found by n/a]

Thursday, September 09, 2010 7:21:51 AM

* Initial entry found. [Found by n/a]

Not much on nethouseprices.com:

Address

5 The Spinney,

London,

Greater London,

SW16 1LA £345,000

Semi-Detached

Freehold

Not New Build 14-Sep-2001

SW16 1LA

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Interesting - I don't live too far away and have been watching prices. My (anecdotal) evidence is that selling prices are well under 700 now on Scholars, Haverhill, Pentney, Hydethorpe but people are still buying because they want to be near the two primary schools. Secondary schools are not so great though.

Round the corner I know but this is my favourite one: £500k for a small converted flat!

http://property.jphomes.co.uk/salesPropertyDetails.do?p=74418

Same linky thing still, but the price is now £450k ... So 10pc down. I seem to have an obsession with this flat now!

Still a little overpriced for only 850sq ft considering there are 2 small bedroomsa and a 'restricted height' loft conversion. I've not seen a flat in one of these houses, but know people who live in unconverted houses on this road, and there ain't much room upstairs.

If I get my act together this weekend, I'll go and see what number it is and look it up on nhp.

http://property.jphomes.co.uk/salesPropertyDetails.do?p=74418

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Same linky thing still, but the price is now £450k ... So 10pc down. I seem to have an obsession with this flat now!

Still a little overpriced for only 850sq ft considering there are 2 small bedroomsa and a 'restricted height' loft conversion. I've not seen a flat in one of these houses, but know people who live in unconverted houses on this road, and there ain't much room upstairs.

If I get my act together this weekend, I'll go and see what number it is and look it up on nhp.

http://property.jphomes.co.uk/salesPropertyDetails.do?p=74418

I remember viewing an identical flat in that street, it might even have been that flat. It was on for 80k. It was in March 1991 though!

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I remember viewing an identical flat in that street, it might even have been that flat. It was on for 80k. It was in March 1991 though!

Will have to check dates/prices but that makes sense - went to £125k-ish in '95/6, then £225/250kish in '00/'01.

And it's on a busy road (cut through from S Circular to Balham) that has no traffic calming measures, so cars/lorries rattle down there. Plus you've got light industrial at either end (Zennor Rd, Big Yellow Storage, and Cash and Carry) so there is plenty of noise as wel..

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October update

3-bed

SW12: available/STC

Aug: 38/21

Sep: 37/19

Oct: 42/17

A01 715,000 Haverhill new registration

aspire

very good condition, extra bathroom so must have loft extension, kitchen appears to be extended

Aug:STC Oct: new registration, otherwise no change.

A02 699,950 Scholars

Jacksons

good condition, kitchen extended sideways

Aug: STC

A03 695,000 Haverhill

James Pendleton

good condition

Aug: STC Oct: available

A04 649,950 Haverhill

Jacksons

Average codition, small kitchen

Aug: STC Oct: available

A05 649,950 Haverhill

James Pendleton

good condition, nice kitchen

Aug STC Oct: sold or removed

A06 649,950 Hydethorpe

KFH

average condition

Aug: STC

A07 630,000 Haverhill

KFH

cheap looking refurb

Aug:STC Oct: sold or withdrawn

A08 609,950 Hydethorpe

bushells

average - good condition

Aug: available Sep: new price 599,950 Oct: new price 575,000

A09 600,000 Hydethorpe

iSold.com

no picture. I suspect this is a relisting of B05

Oct: available

So the action for this month seems to be: two sold (or withdrawn), two back on the market, and one price reduction 609,950->575,000. I suspect A09 was formerly classified as a four bed and probably was not legally conform or something. A01 seems to be relisted, but all the details are identical. A08 appears to be keen to sell.

Edited by BigPig

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October update

4-bed

SW12: available/STC

Aug: 30/15

Sep: 32/16

Oct: 43/13

B01 785,000 Pentney,

aspire

Aug:STC

B02 735,000 Pentney, new registration

aspire

Aug: STC Oct: new reigistration

B03 729,950 Haverhill

Jacksons

Aug: STC Oct:sold or withdrawn

B04 699,950 Hydethorpe

aspire

Aug: STC

B05 600,000 Hydethorpe

D&G

"for development or investment"

Oct: withdrawn (or sold), probably now A09

B06 769,950 Scholars

Jacksons

Simple but nicely decorated (magnolia).

Sep: new Oct: STC

B07 749,950 Scholars

KFH

Looks a little dated, but freshly painted (white). Pebble dash exterior.

Sep: new Oct: new price 699,950

B08 769,950 Pentney

Jacksons

Oct: new and STC

Summary of October action: one sold, a couple gone STC, one new on market, and one price drop 749,950->699,950

Neither of the price reductions seem to show up on propertysnake. I'd be interested if any propertybee users could say whether they register them.

Edited by BigPig

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It's possible that I forgot to specify "houses" in the search. The figures at 2.11.2010 are 41/14 (4-bed houses SW12), which is a tiny bit less. So there does seem to be an increase in supply. There's no way of knowing if that's a normal seasonal variation though. Roll on 2011.

I guess I better add the rentals available as well, as it may correlate with the "for sale"s. SW12 4-bed houses 19/4

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Same linky thing still, but the price is now £450k ... So 10pc down. I seem to have an obsession with this flat now!

Still a little overpriced for only 850sq ft considering there are 2 small bedroomsa and a 'restricted height' loft conversion. I've not seen a flat in one of these houses, but know people who live in unconverted houses on this road, and there ain't much room upstairs.

If I get my act together this weekend, I'll go and see what number it is and look it up on nhp.

http://property.jphomes.co.uk/salesPropertyDetails.do?p=74418

Bit disappointing ... "Withdrawn":

http://property.jphomes.co.uk/salesPropertyDetails.do?p=74418

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I'm guessing someone really needs to sell ... Asking px down £125,050 in 6 weeks.

Slightly o/s the Hyde Farm search area (well, actually a lot further south, between the two Commons):

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31032668.html

Right by the Commons, bit in the middle of nowhere for transport - must be a 25min walk up & down Bedford Hill (which is a busy road) to Balham tube, and 15-20m into the Streatham badlands for either Streatham or Streatham Hill stations (rail but no tube). Nice little side road off the main road, but near the railway line & the Streatham/Clapham School.

Price history:

Friday, October 29, 2010 1:17:33 AM

* Price changed: from '£799,950' to '£749,950'

Friday, October 08, 2010 9:39:08 AM

* Price changed: from '£839,950' to '£799,950' [Found by n/a]

Thursday, September 16, 2010 7:48:05 AM

* Price changed: from '£875,000' to '£839,950' [Found by n/a]

Thursday, September 09, 2010 7:21:51 AM

* Initial entry found. [Found by n/a]

Not much on nethouseprices.com:

Address

5 The Spinney,

London,

Greater London,

SW16 1LA £345,000

Semi-Detached

Freehold

Not New Build 14-Sep-2001

SW16 1LA

Update on this ... another £100k off (by 1st week of Dec?) and I'll go and look.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31032668.html

Thursday, October 28, 2010 8:53:25 AM

* Price changed: from '£799,950' to '£749,950' [Found by n/a]

Friday, October 08, 2010 9:39:08 AM

* Price changed: from '£839,950' to '£799,950' [Found by n/a]

Thursday, September 16, 2010 7:48:05 AM

* Price changed: from '£875,000' to '£839,950' [Found by n/a]

Thursday, September 09, 2010 7:21:51 AM

* Initial entry found. [Found by n/a]

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Update on this ... another £100k off (by 1st week of Dec?) and I'll go and look.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31032668.html

Thursday, October 28, 2010 8:53:25 AM

* Price changed: from '£799,950' to '£749,950' [Found by n/a]

Friday, October 08, 2010 9:39:08 AM

* Price changed: from '£839,950' to '£799,950' [Found by n/a]

Thursday, September 16, 2010 7:48:05 AM

* Price changed: from '£875,000' to '£839,950' [Found by n/a]

Thursday, September 09, 2010 7:21:51 AM

* Initial entry found. [Found by n/a]

yeah i've noticed that one.

the initial £875k was a bit silly really.

in short:

(a) decent house;

(B) outsanding location in terms of closeness to the common albeit a little far from amenities;

© so far from the tube as to be a bit of a pain; and

(d) probably needs an all-over refurb.

it'd need to be a good way south of £700k to be well priced IMO.

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November update

3-bed

SW12: available/STC

Aug: 38/21

Sep: 37/19

Oct: 42/17

Nov: 38/15

A01 715,000 Haverhill new registration

aspire

very good condition, extra bathroom so must have loft extension, kitchen appears to be extended

Aug:STC, Oct: new registration, Nov: no change

A02 699,950 Scholars

Jacksons

good condition, kitchen extended sideways

Aug: STC, Nov: Sold (or withdrawn)

A03 695,000 Haverhill

James Pendleton

good condition

Aug: STC, Oct: available, Nov: STC

A04 649,950 Haverhill

Jacksons

Average condition, small kitchen

Aug: STC Oct: available, Nov: EA changed to KFH, STC, Sold (busy month)

A05 649,950 Haverhill

James Pendleton

good condition, nice kitchen

Aug STC Oct: sold or removed

A06 649,950 Hydethorpe

KFH

average condition

Aug: STC

A07 630,000 Haverhill

KFH

cheap looking refurb

Aug:STC Oct: sold or withdrawn

A08 609,950 Hydethorpe , relisting

bushells

average - good condition

Aug: available Sep: new price 599,950 Oct: new price 575,000

A09 600,000 Hydethorpe

iSold.com

no picture. I suspect this is a relisting of B05

Oct: available

A10649,950 Hydethorpe

James Pembleton

frilly decoration, small conservatory

Nov: New

So the action for this month seems to be: two sold (or withdrawn), one new on market, one gone STC.

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