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Robert Shiller Says Double Dip Imminent

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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/robert-shiller-says-double-dip-imminent

In this week's Big Interview, the WSJ's Simon Constable interviews Robert Shiller who flat out says that an economic double dip may be "imminent." This compares to his earlier warning that he saw the chances of a double dip at over 50%. Guess that probability has now doubled. Notably, Shiller also believes that when the NBER looks back at the data, Q3 of this year will mark the beginning of the second dip of the recession. Ironically, since up to now the previous recession has never actually officially ended, very soon the NBER will merely confirm that the recession which started in December 2007, will have continued for three years, in what is possibly the longest recession on record. Furthermore, those looking to sell houses are advised not to listen to the interview, as the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index also added that he is worried housing prices could decline for another five years. He noted that Japan saw land prices decline for 15 consecutive years up to 2006. Following up on this week's weakest new home sales data in history this should probably not come as a big surprise to most. Also for bond fans, Shiller confirmed Rosenberg's view that bonds are not in a bubble. Hopefully Mr. Shiller bond prophecying skills in bonds are better than in houses, where it was mostly in hindsight in early 2007 when the bubble had already popped.

So sit back, grab some popcorn and listen to this 20 minute interview on how GDP is about to take a leg down, and buy some stocks (or not, the robots already front ran your decision before you even thought of it), cause in the new very inappropriately named normal one does the opposite of what one does in a normal world.

See link for the video.

Although this is just another "expert" who's guessing.

Too many variables to predict anything accurately, but if you make enough predictions at some point you will be right and everyone will think you are some sort of genius.

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Thanks for posting that. Good find.

I think Shiller is good, although I don't agree with him on everything.

The bond market is being manipulated so much, that it's hard to tell what the real demand for treasuries is. I suspect there's very little "real" demand.

Robert Peston tweeted this today.

Forget China. UK holdings of US Treasury bonds/bills rose $271bn to $362bn in past year. http://goo.gl/eUYd. Wow. Anyone know why?

So it looks like the central banks are using QE to buy each others treasuries, in order to create the perception of "real demand" A sort of, "I'll buy yours, if you buy mine" deal.

This would explain this video I guess.

If this is what they're doing, then it could be considered a "bubble", but not a classic investor bubble, instead a distorted market bubble.

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Is anyone as worried about this as I am?

Look at this.

US Treasury Holders

Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun

Country 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009

------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

China, Mainland 843.7 867.7 900.2 895.2 877.5 889.0 894.8 929.0 938.3 938.3 936.5 939.9 915.8

Japan 803.6 786.7 795.5 784.9 768.5 765.4 765.7 754.3 742.9 747.9 727.5 720.9 708.2

United Kingdom 2/ 362.2 350.0 321.2 279.0 233.5 208.3 180.3 155.5 108.1 126.8 104.3 97.1 90.8

Why the hell are we in the UK holding so much US debt. from 90.8 Bn in June last year, to 362.2 BN this June!!! China is reducing its holdings, yet we have increased ours by more than any other country by MILES!

What the hell is going on?

Edited by wtb

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Is anyone as worried about this as I am?

Look at this.

Why the hell are we in the UK holding so much US debt. from 90.8 Bn in June last year, to 362.2 BN this June!!! China is reducing its holdings, yet we have increased ours by more than any other country by MILES!

What the hell is going on?

A Mexican standoff?

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Is anyone as worried about this as I am?

Look at this.

Why the hell are we in the UK holding so much US debt. from 90.8 Bn in June last year, to 362.2 BN this June!!! China is reducing its holdings, yet we have increased ours by more than any other country by MILES!

What the hell is going on?

This is known, well known to me for a while, we print money buy there debt, they print money buy our debt, its easy just print and spend, the 52nd state.......... I am off to spend everything i have over the coming months years. I will not be happy until it has all gone. Just before it becomes totally worthless.

Houses are/will fall, cash is falling in value, you work for pittance after tax, travelling time/costs, work clothes, long hours no extra pay.

Just spend what you do have, then what you don't have, the whole thing is a circus, and Merv, Ben*****y et al are the ring leaders...................

Give up...............See state gobblers on benefits looking healthier, happier than the poor b@stards working long hours to pay their mortgage and the state gobblers hand outs..

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Is anyone as worried about this as I am?

Look at this.

Why the hell are we in the UK holding so much US debt. from 90.8 Bn in June last year, to 362.2 BN this June!!! China is reducing its holdings, yet we have increased ours by more than any other country by MILES!

What the hell is going on?

Does it mean the 'UK' or does it mean bonds held by UK domiciled buyers. We have a bunch of banks and finance co.s located here apparently, who have to do something with all that QE.

Some other thoughts here:-

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/27/327976/%e2%80%98we-think-the-us-treasury-market-is-ripe-for-a-pullback/

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Is anyone as worried about this as I am?

Look at this.

Why the hell are we in the UK holding so much US debt. from 90.8 Bn in June last year, to 362.2 BN this June!!! China is reducing its holdings, yet we have increased ours by more than any other country by MILES!

What the hell is going on?

We are having the wool pulled over our eyes? :unsure::ph34r:

Put this sort of stuff together with the securitisation of builders resale fees in the US and dozens of other stories over the past couple of years, and I have come to the conclusion that the financial system is completely out of control. It has turned into an exercise in fraud and looting of the general public, nothing more, nothing less. Governments, regulators, bank CEOs: time for all of them to be strung up on lamp posts.

Edited by Tiger Woods?

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instead a distorted market bubble.

...I call it rigged if they are buying each others ....get your friends doing this for you on Ebay and you'll get banned and fined and jailed ...basically it's fraud......catch, try and in need jail them .... :rolleyes:

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I think there is vast manipulation going on and I doubt more than 5 or 6 people truly know what is happening - and less understand it.

IMPO the UK and the US are in league to keep alive the myth of Banking based around Wall Street and The City - it is the only way for us to keep our global dominance. The alternative is to go to war - with China... which will happen sooner than later.

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Is anyone as worried about this as I am?

Look at this.

Why the hell are we in the UK holding so much US debt. from 90.8 Bn in June last year, to 362.2 BN this June!!! China is reducing its holdings, yet we have increased ours by more than any other country by MILES!

What the hell is going on?

Do not forget that the banks have been improving thier tier 1 capital ratios after the Lehman crash and the western govts (especially ours at that time) decided that a fantastic asset to hold as tier one capital is govt debt, treasuries or gilts (safe as house so they say).

So HSBC has 2.5 trillion in assests

Barclays has about 1.5trillion

RBS has 1.5 tillion

Total for these three 5.5 trillion.

They have increased core 1 ratios from around 6% to 11% so increase of 5%.

5.5trillion x 5% = 275 billion assume business is 40% US 40% europe and 20% Asia.

This means and increase of 275bill x 40% = 110 billion in US treasuries for just these three banks.

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Thanks for posting that. Good find.

I think Shiller is good, although I don't agree with him on everything.

The bond market is being manipulated so much, that it's hard to tell what the real demand for treasuries is. I suspect there's very little "real" demand.

Robert Peston tweeted this today.

Forget China. UK holdings of US Treasury bonds/bills rose $271bn to $362bn in past year. http://goo.gl/eUYd. Wow. Anyone know why?

So it looks like the central banks are using QE to buy each others treasuries, in order to create the perception of "real demand" A sort of, "I'll buy yours, if you buy mine" deal.

This would explain this video I guess.

If this is what they're doing, then it could be considered a "bubble", but not a classic investor bubble, instead a distorted market bubble.

The best bit, at a little over 3 minutes in:

Grayson: Wouldn't it necessarily affect the credit markets if you extended half a trillion dollars in credit to anybody?

Bernanke [blah blah blah]

Grayson: Well next page has the dollar nominal exchange rate increase 20% at exactly the same time you were handing out half a trillion dollars to foreigners. Do you think that is a coincidence?

Bernanke: Yes.

:lol:

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Do not forget that the banks have been improving thier tier 1 capital ratios after the Lehman crash and the western govts (especially ours at that time) decided that a fantastic asset to hold as tier one capital is govt debt, treasuries or gilts (safe as house so they say).

So HSBC has 2.5 trillion in assests

Barclays has about 1.5trillion

RBS has 1.5 tillion

Total for these three 5.5 trillion.

They have increased core 1 ratios from around 6% to 11% so increase of 5%.

5.5trillion x 5% = 275 billion assume business is 40% US 40% europe and 20% Asia.

This means and increase of 275bill x 40% = 110 billion in US treasuries for just these three banks.

If that's the case, the banks are investing in another bubble that's about to pop. Great. What geniuses.

If the bond market implodes under this strain, then everything they are using the bond market to prop up, the stock markets, the housing market, the government borrowing and the currencies, will all go down with it.

Total collapse. Well done Benanke et al; You've turned a disaster into a total catastrophe. Nice work!

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If that's the case, the banks are investing in another bubble that's about to pop. Great. What geniuses.

If the bond market implodes under this strain, then everything they are using the bond market to prop up, the stock markets, the housing market, the government borrowing and the currencies, will all go down with it.

Total collapse. Well done Benanke et al; You've turned a disaster into a total catastrophe. Nice work!

If our political masters can find a way to turn a disaster into a catastrophe then they'll do it and hope the catastrophe happens when they aren't in power.

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  • 192 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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