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ianbeale

Mpc September - Betfair

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Guest wrongmove

Nice work Ian. Can you tell us the time scale on your graph ? Is it just the last couple of weeks ?

Cheers

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Nice work Ian. Can you tell us the time scale on your graph ? Is it just the last couple of weeks ?

Cheers

this is taken from the betfair website

ww.betfair.com

under the financial bets tab

but the time graph is basically linear since the date of the last MPC decision 27ish days ago.

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Guest wrongmove
this is taken from the betfair website

ww.betfair.com

under the financial bets tab

but the time graph is basically linear since the date of the last MPC decision 27ish days ago.

Thanks IamB. Betfair is usually right on these things (i.e. the Betfair punters seem to know their stuff)

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Albeit it is still very unlikely (but moving in the right directon) the odds on a rise in rates have fallen quite sharply over the past couple of weeks now 30-1 was over 100-1 (see graph).

Current betting is

rate rise 30-1

no chnge 1-25

rate cut 30-1

I often play this book for fun (and occasionaly profit).

Indeed the odds have fallen but take note of the volume(s) - generally in the £10's or less in all other areas than the 'no change' bet where they're in the £1000's .

I'm laying the market this month betting agaist there being no change - I lose £10 if rates don't change but win £250 if they do (either up or down).

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W're certainly moving into uncharted territory at the moment. How long before the softly-softly policy of the MPC over the last few years changes?

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Indeed the odds have fallen but take note of the volume(s)  - generally in the £10's or less in all other areas than the 'no change' bet where they're in the £1000's .   

The stakes are relative to the odds on offer - if you are offering odds of 30-1 and someone puts £10 on it and wins, you lose £300 - if you are offering odds of 1-25 and someone puts £25 on it and wins, you only lose a £1, hence the numbers are much bigger.

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W're certainly moving into uncharted territory at the moment. How long before the softly-softly policy of the MPC over the last few years changes?

Whenever it becomes apparent that swervin mervin does not wear the trousers and inflation starts to run rampant.

..but that ain't good news for UK plc.I think merv is spot on with his assessment and it's a shame he is going to be over-ridden by tony's cronies.....to the detriment of everyone.

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Whenever it becomes apparent that swervin mervin does not wear the trousers and inflation starts to run rampant.

..but that ain't good news for UK plc.I think merv is spot on with his assessment and it's a shame he is going to be over-ridden by tony's cronies.....to the detriment of everyone.

at 30-1 it's almost worth a few bob on another cut - now we have a clear break from Merv's guidance there's nothing to stop the 5 airheads doing it again is there?

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cant make head nor tail fo the odds , me brain aint working.

Whose data do they use for the house price bets?

Dames

it's based on what people are prepared to lay or back at - if someone offers odds that someone else likes they trade - if not, the offer just falls down the queue as other people place more tempting offers

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

This was quite a shock at the time, rates were expected to fall further.

1975

24 Mar 10.0000

21 Apr 9.7500

5 May 10.0000

It could happen if things begin to look bad, and guess what at that time rates went up even further, strong inflationary pressures as I remember. <_<

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Guest wrongmove
cant make head nor tail fo the odds , me brain aint working.

Dames, the number stated is the total you will win including your stake for each pound bet.

So odds of 2.0 is the same as evens in the old system (ods of 1/1).

1.1 is 10/1 on, or 1/10

11 is 10/1 etc.

i.e odds less than 2 means odds on, greater than 2, then just subtract 1 to get the "normal" odds.

I think....... :)

Edited by wrongmove

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This was quite a shock at the time, rates were expected to fall further.

1975

24 Mar 10.0000

21 Apr 9.7500

5 May 10.0000

It could happen if things begin to look bad, and guess what at that time rates went up even further, strong inflationary pressures as I remember.  <_<

Nice find CTT. I would like to throw in my 2 cents worth though. Wasn't it a wait until the early 80's that saw recession & problems with HP's after the date you've found this data for.

If we were to accept it as a guide to current circumstances, will we see a recession in 6-7 years and HP growth until then? It makes sense, the Olympics provide a 6-7 year goal post to aim for.

And personally re this thread I think November is the first chance of a rate reduction & the bad news piling up at the moment will eventually tip the scale.

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Dames, the number stated is the total you will win including your stake for each pound bet.

So odds of 2.0 is the same as evens in the old system (ods of 1/1).

1.1 is 10/1 on, or 1/10

11 is 10/1 etc.

i.e odds less than 2 means odds on, greater than 2, then just subtract 1 to get the "normal" odds.

I think.......  :)

Yeah thats right. The simple way to undersatnd is to multiply how much you are staking by the decimal odds to get how much money you will get back if your bet is a winning one.

Edited by dapperdave

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The trick is to bet on something when the odds are high... eg. 400:1.

Then when the odds tumble (like in this case... but of course it's hard to predict when that'll happen), bet against the same thing at 1:100.

In other words you bet on something both happening and not happening, at odds that mean you'll always come out in profit.

It's tricky but I'm pretty sure that's how the core Betfair punters play the market. It's the same as an arbitrage trade in the SM, only with less fluidity.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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