Autumn Of Discontent: The Selling Season Has Arrived But Will Anyone Be Buying?

[Minos]

A friend of mine has just such a toilet. Made in Germany--it does every thing for you including wiping (and cleaning afterwards--bidet sort of thing for the whole lot) and means by which odours are eliminated through a carbon filter system. The seat is constructed with a form of "memory foam" that molds itself to the anatomy to aid comfort and to prevent the escape of odours. It even has a sound system that masks otherwise embarrassing noises virtually at the point of emission. It cost a vast amount but it was paid for by the NHS as this particular person has a serious disability.

The only dubious benefit I could see was the sound masking facility. Waste of money if you ask me.

Is it John Prescott?

[Reluctant Heretic]

EAs are bust trying to convince sellers and buyers in my part of the World that the Summer months are poor for selling a house and that it all kicks off in Spetember... so I suspect that denial will continue right through to January 1st locally... at which point, no doubt, EAs will be using the coming Spring/Easter as the best time to buy.

I noticed some good drops in Wales on the land registry report - are you feeling more hopeful?

[NEO72]

I'm sure they will but too many people (present company excepted) interpret this as the sellers "winning".

They won't, because much of the "pent up demand" hasn't got the funds to back it up and won't have for the foreseeable.

So we'll just see a big standoff, one that sellers cannot win.

+1. Many seem to think people sell houses 'on a whim' - the reality is most have very good reasons for selling and i'll be willing to bet that the average buyer is a lot less motivated than the average seller.

[lulu]

I'm sure they will but too many people (present company excepted) interpret this as the sellers "winning".

They won't, because much of the "pent up demand" hasn't got the funds to back it up and won't have for the foreseeable.

So we'll just see a big standoff, one that sellers cannot win.

But I dont think many sellers really understand the problem at the bottom getting finance and the requirement for a large deposit now.

Even with a 30K deposit (about to be inherited) and an above average salary for the city I can still only afford very very modest one bedroom flat in a relatively crap area (I am ignoring the existance of some properties here which I could probably buy for cash but no way on God's earth would anyone sane do that and live there).

I was explaining to people in the pub last night who are trying to sell that if this is all I can 'afford'* and I am in financially a far better position than most (who do not have access to such a large deposit or have such a relatively large salary) who exactly is going to be able to afford to buy?

* To clarify, that is all the bank would lend me

Edited August 28, 2010 by lulu

[chicker]

+1. Many seem to think people sell houses 'on a whim' - the reality is most have very good reasons for selling and i'll be willing to bet that the average buyer is a lot less motivated than the average seller.

I think this is very true. Lots of very motivated mums/dads with children in years 5/6 from the local junior school have moved for better school options. They all seem to want to buy in their new area but nearly always end up renting as this is an easier option than taking the risk of getting stung. Usually they try and sell their current hse but there is virtually no market and they let. BTW most of these people have been in these houses for approx 10-12 years and bought at around £160-180k. Asking prices now around 450k.

If these type of people aren't doing deals ea's and vendors should be very worried. Really too early to analyse whats going on but something has got to give and vendors are overly potimistic about the number of purchasers out there able and willing to proceed.

[silver surfer]

All sellers need to do is understand this simple equation:

twigs + vase = ceiling price for street + 20%

Autumn is obviously a good time to sell as there are more twigs about.

[The Masked Tulip]

I noticed some good drops in Wales on the land registry report - are you feeling more hopeful?

I think many EA firms have made a rope for their own neck with the, IMPO, ludicrous valuations/asking prices. Heck, I am fortunate to be in a cash buyer position and I can't be bothered looking in S'sea anymore. Not worth my time to view some ludicrously priced/valued property just to please the ego of, IMPO, some deluded EA and seller.

Combine that with the above coming of Autumn, nights drawing in, grey damp days and looking to buy a house is the last thing on my mind.

Come January 1st the EAs will be out pushing the coming Spring Bounce and Easter and all that will do is delude the sellers and themselves through another Summer.

But the job cuts might change all that.

[The Masked Tulip]

Just to add, with so many EAs in my area talking up September then there must be a large percentage of sellers who are expecting to sell... so I suspect that will mean October will have to come and go before the penny drops with many sellers.

[Pent Up]

Just to add, with so many EAs in my area talking up September then there must be a large percentage of sellers who are expecting to sell... so I suspect that will mean October will have to come and go before the penny drops with many sellers.

Anecdotally I have heard two people say they are planning to Market their homes in September as the Market is better then. Can't see why they don't just put it on straight away. It'll still be there in September anyway!

[The Masked Tulip]

Anecdotally I have heard two people say they are planning to Market their homes in September as the Market is better then. Can't see why they don't just put it on straight away. It'll still be there in September anyway!

Nowt as queer as folk... especially the queer ones... Am I allowed to say that?

[The Preacherman]

Anecdotally I have heard two people say they are planning to Market their homes in September as the Market is better then. Can't see why they don't just put it on straight away. It'll still be there in September anyway!

I'm convinced that there will be a lot more homes flooding on to the market in September as thoose feeling the pinch and downsizing boomers try to trade down.

In Worcestershire the market is current saturated given the number of buyers. Anyone serious about selling has to put their house on the market at 05/6 prices.

[Pent Up]

I'm convinced that there will be a lot more homes flooding on to the market in September as thoose feeling the pinch and downsizing boomers try to trade down.

In Worcestershire the market is current saturated given the number of buyers. Anyone serious about selling has to put their house on the market at 05/6 prices.

Despite what the 'experts' say this oversupply is nothing to do with HIPS being pulled. If you look at the the new rightmove price comparison report you can see that properties being listed per month have been roughly steady throughout this year. With no increase in listing in or after may when HIPS were cancelled. Yet properties on the Market have been surging. So it's falling demand that is causing the excess supply. (check your postcode it's the same everywhere). If we get a surge in new listings it would be game over

Edited August 28, 2010 by Pent Up

[sera]

I think this is very true. Lots of very motivated mums/dads with children in years 5/6 from the local junior school have moved for better school options. They all seem to want to buy in their new area but nearly always end up renting as this is an easier option than taking the risk of getting stung. Usually they try and sell their current hse but there is virtually no market and they let. BTW most of these people have been in these houses for approx 10-12 years and bought at around £160-180k. Asking prices now around 450k.

If these type of people aren't doing deals ea's and vendors should be very worried. Really too early to analyse whats going on but something has got to give and vendors are overly potimistic about the number of purchasers out there able and willing to proceed.

This is what worries me - until banks start refusing consent to let, I don't think we'll see much movement downwards if rental demand stays strong. By renting the house out, they get to move, paying over the odds for their new home as they can use equity from their old home, and they're not a forced seller on their original home.

[Pent Up]

This is what worries me - until banks start refusing consent to let, I don't think we'll see much movement downwards if rental demand stays strong. By renting the house out, they get to move, paying over the odds for their new home as they can use equity from their old home, and they're not a forced seller on their original home.

Very few people can buy a new house without selling their old one. It's more likely to be people who have inherited houses to rent them out when they can't sell.

[The Masked Tulip]

This is what worries me - until banks start refusing consent to let, I don't think we'll see much movement downwards if rental demand stays strong. By renting the house out, they get to move, paying over the odds for their new home as they can use equity from their old home, and they're not a forced seller on their original home.

Banks have just begun to play hardball with commercial property - domestic will follow IMPO.

[chicker]

Very few people can buy a new house without selling their old one. It's more likely to be people who have inherited houses to rent them out when they can't sell.

Thats my point, nothing is bought or sold. The wannabe seller lets in the end and rents in his new area. Most people hate it as they have the worst of both worlds. By default they become landlords with all the responsibilities that that entails and have the insecurity of being a tenant on a AST.

I cannot see any winners here except maybe the landlord of the place in the new area but he's probably renting somewhere as he waits for the market to recover so he can sell and retire.... They wonder why the British are the unhappiest country in Europe - its crap like this which makes the people depressed and socially lost.

[campervanman]

Thats my point, nothing is bought or sold. The wannabe seller lets in the end and rents in his new area. Most people hate it as they have the worst of both worlds. By default they become landlords with all the responsibilities that that entails and have the insecurity of being a tenant on a AST.

I cannot see any winners here except maybe the landlord of the place in the new area but he's probably renting somewhere as he waits for the market to recover so he can sell and retire.... They wonder why the British are the unhappiest country in Europe - its crap like this which makes the people depressed and socially lost.

Do you think this is happening on a large scale? Letting out the previous house and renting another one means the person doing it is immediately 20-40% down on the deal (unless they can rent smaller or in a cheaper area). Why would they?

[Pent Up]

Thats my point, nothing is bought or sold. The wannabe seller lets in the end and rents in his new area. Most people hate it as they have the worst of both worlds. By default they become landlords with all the responsibilities that that entails and have the insecurity of being a tenant on a AST.

I cannot see any winners here except maybe the landlord of the place in the new area but he's probably renting somewhere as he waits for the market to recover so he can sell and retire.... They wonder why the British are the unhappiest country in Europe - its crap like this which makes the people depressed and socially lost.

With a bit of luck the banks will crack down on people letting their houses without consent. You need equity to this. Normal BTL mortgages are 75% LTV.

[chicker]

Do you think this is happening on a large scale? Letting out the previous house and renting another one means the person doing it is immediately 20-40% down on the deal (unless they can rent smaller or in a cheaper area). Why would they?

Easy school catchment areas. Yes they are down on the deal approx 20% but ideally they would like to move but will take the lose if they are unable to. This market shouldn't be under estimated in London/SE and other areas around large cities. As previously pointed out sellers are usually more motivated than buyers but in this scenario there are motivated buyers but still few transactions . Other than moving for work I see no other part of the market that is so time specific - all kids grow older but downsizers can be time flexible. Not sure what restrictions they are on probate sales

[winkie]

This is what worries me - until banks start refusing consent to let, I don't think we'll see much movement downwards if rental demand stays strong. By renting the house out, they get to move, paying over the odds for their new home as they can use equity from their old home, and they're not a forced seller on their original home.

....so they then end up with two depreciating assets and double the debt.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

The summer sun is fading as the year grows old

And darker days are drawing near

The winter winds will be much colder

Now credit's not here

I WATCH the BTL's go south, and after Autumn die

And one by one they DISAPPEAR

I wish house prices were dying WITH them

Now credit's not here

Like the SUN journalists you came to enslave me

Like a debt on the crunch you grew away

Through Autumn's vased twigs we used to sell our house

You brewed coffee this time of year

Those fallen twigs lie undisturbed now

Cause credit's not here (x3)

Edited August 29, 2010 by Saving For a Space Ship