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Albert Edwards: "we Are Returning To 450 On The S&p"

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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards-we-are-returning-450-sp

'Investors cannot move for the weight of broker research comparing the current conjuncture in the US with Japan a decade ago. While bond markets at least, move to discount deflation, most sell-side analysts still say the current situation is unlike Japan a decade ago. They are right. Things now in the US are much, much worse than Japan a decade ago.

Equity investors are in for a rude shock. The global economy is sliding back into recession and they are still not even aware that these events will trigger another leg down in valuations, the third major bear market since the equity valuation bubble burst.

As the equity bloodbath of the last decade enters its final, even bloodier phase, investors continued optimism also reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python & the Holy Grail - link. Despite being grievously wounded by King Arthur, the Black Knight makes light of his injuries which he dismisses as a flesh wound. The vast bulk of the investment industry fails to appreciate that we are locked in a structural bear market and about to enter Act III.

So far the equity market has shrugged off much of the weaker data that abounds, and has not joined the bond market in a perceptive move. The equity market will though crumble like the house of cards it is, when the nationwide manufacturing ISM slides below 50 into recession territory in coming months. Indeed the new orders data for August, already reported in regional ISM?s suggests the equity market is going to get some sentiment crushing data in the very near term. But never mind the last standing optimist will tell us ? it is only a flesh wound!'

but,but,but..............

errr.

This is just another guess the stock market article with no basis whatsoever.

If you read websites like market oracle you will see articles every day saying gold to 600 dollars or 6000 dollars and SandP to 1500 or to 450.

The numbers have to be slightly extreme to attract readership.

e.g. nobody is interested in an article saying FTSE may fall to 5050!

now change the title to FTSE to fall to 2500 by Jan 2011 and you will treble your readership.

Basically I have no respect for these people. They all claim to have made money but that can't be true because half of them must be wrong.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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