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Realistbear

5 Investment Bubbles And The One's About To Pop

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http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/110440/5-investing-bubbles?mod=fidelity-managingwealth&cat=fidelity_2010_managing_wealth

.../
The Chinese Economy
Verdict: A Bubble
U.S. Treasury Bonds
Verdict: Not a Bubble
Natural Gas
Verdict: A bubble
Cotton
Verdict: A minor bubble
Gold
Verdict: A major bubble
..../

I have to reluctantly admit that I am beginning to lean ever so slightly toward a moderate bearish light stance on gold. <_<

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Gold
Verdict: A major bubble

I have to reluctantly admit that I am beginning to lean ever so slightly toward a moderate bearish light stance on gold. <_<

What was your stance prior to this ?

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What was your stance prior to this ?

Bearish. Its at the point in the pendulum swing IMO where backward momentum is more lilley than forward (too many tops have been reached only to fall back again)--lack of real momentum despite every fundamental being in place that says gold should be more than 50% of its IA value in 1980. Why has it not taken off? Is it the oversold ETFs (gold ponzi), is because the bond markets are saying deflation or has the bull simply got tired? Is anyone going to buy at these levels?

Edited by Realistbear

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I often wonder this. When the US govt seized (never got to that, but some was exchanged voluntarily) in the 1930s, holders got over $20 per troy ounce. If they had invested it in the stock market (or, probably houses too) back then that $20 would be worth far more than the $1250 dollars a troy ounce now. In retrospect, they got a good deal.

Yes, govts are pursuing some crazy policies, but that doesnt mean its undervalued. Govts could exchange countless things in return for debts being forgiven - road networks, railways, hospitals. Just saying if theres 100 ounces of gold in the UK and we owe £1,000,000 therefore gold should be £10000 an ounce seems pretty simplistic, which in essense is what a lot of the goldbugs seem to be saying.

Also, with silver, people are saying its used in solar panel production. But at what price does it become prohibitive to use it in such a manner and some other, cheaper substitute is used.

Not saying i wouldnt have *Some* as part as a balanced portfolio, but for something that gives no yield, has no real use in golds case other than a potential future unit of exchange, i wouldnt put all my eggs in one basket.

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Bearish. Its at the point in the pendulum swing IMO where backward momentum is more lilley than forward (too many tops have been reached only to fall back again)--lack of real momentum despite every fundamental being in place that says gold should be more than 50% of its IA value in 1980. Why has it not taken off? Is it the oversold ETFs (gold ponzi), is because the bond markets are saying deflation or has the bull simply got tired? Is anyone going to buy at these levels?

Well f*ck me. Glad I clicked on this post. Who would have thought Realist Bear would be starting to change his mind on gold.

Too many tops? Falling back? It's the behaviour of your typical investment market, that's all. Precious metals have always been volatile in the short run. Does the stock market advance in a straight line?

To prove the point please see this link, it's a set of charts quoting the daily gold price in many major currencies, alongside the 5 year price chart for those currencies.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-price-forex.html

Fundamentals aside, as you can see from the 5 year charts, we are nowhere near a gold top. For a bull market to roll over we need to enter the parabolic stage and reach a blow off top. Gold's advance over the previous years has been fairly linear once the volatility is ironed out (just draw a straight line from the starting point to the end point). There's tonnes more mileage in this baby, but I suppose investors can always try their hand at property, dollars, euro, sterling, bonds or commodities right now if they think they're a better bet.

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What was your stance prior to this ?

rb works in reverse, he was really bearish at $600

The thread exists - no kidding!

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http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/110440/5-investing-bubbles?mod=fidelity-managingwealth&cat=fidelity_2010_managing_wealth

.../
The Chinese Economy
Verdict: A Bubble
U.S. Treasury Bonds
Verdict: Not a Bubble
Natural Gas
Verdict: A bubble
Cotton
Verdict: A minor bubble
Gold
Verdict: A major bubble
..../

I have to reluctantly admit that I am beginning to lean ever so slightly toward a moderate bearish light stance on gold. <_<

lmao rb, everyone knows you outright dislike gold for some reason.

as for gandel, he has been anti gold for as long as you and while he may one day be right anyone listening to him recently shouldnt have. He wrote this back in feb http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/06/pf/buying_gold.moneymag/index.htm

I like this look at his flawed analysis and work http://buygoldandsilversafely.com/blog/gold/money-magazine-and-a-cfa-criticize-gold-with-flawed-analysis/

I like this from june 2008 when he was advising people to hold on and not sell stocks. Ouch, listening to him must have really stung those that did. http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/27/markets/bear_market.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2008062900

The guy is a fool.

Edited by richyc

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Guest spp

Free your mind of this Gold prejudice you have RB. Spend a few days trying to fully digest the work of the Gold experts and working out why Gold is rising, rather than scouring the net for bearish Gold news everyday.

Why don't you ever talk Silver down?

If you want a Bubble...try DEBT and FIAT MONEY PRINTING!

edit - you should actually get some bear food today though. Things will get interesting if Gold doesn't go down a good $20 and Silver $.50 today (26th Aug).

Edited by spp

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/7963809/Gold-demand-jumps-by-36pc.html

Gold in a bubble? not when it is so diluted by ETF's. If in the future there is a run on physical, expect todays prices to be peanuts.

That really will be the icing on the cake.

Noticed the dealer I bought my stash from has recently abolished his margin for gold sellers (sell an ounce to him and he pays you the full spot price) and has loaded the whole margin/spread onto the buyer. What does that say about supply and demand in the real (non-paper/ETF) market?

The clock keeps ticking...

Edited by General Congreve

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Free your mind of this Gold prejudice you have RB. Spend a few days trying to fully digest the work of the Gold experts and working out why Gold is rising, rather than scouring the net for bearish Gold news everyday.

Why don't you ever talk Silver down?

If you want a Bubble...try DEBT and FIAT MONEY PRINTING!

edit - you should actually get some bear food today though. Things will get interesting if Gold doesn't go down a good $20 and Silver $.50 today (26th Aug).

This little gem from Faber in response to whether we could go back on to the gold standard eventually:

"We could go back on the gold standard tomorrow, but they'd have to revalue the price of gold to about 1 million dollars per ounce".

Says it all.

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I often wonder this. When the US govt seized (never got to that, but some was exchanged voluntarily) in the 1930s, holders got over $20 per troy ounce. If they had invested it in the stock market (or, probably houses too) back then that $20 would be worth far more than the $1250 dollars a troy ounce now. In retrospect, they got a good deal.

$20 was not a good deal, not when their gold was instantly revalued at $35. Investing that $20 in stocks or property in 1930 would have been a horrible idea, clearly history is not a strong point of yours but here are a few eye openers

If you have $100 Converted from 1930 to 2005 it would be equivalent to $1204.42 today "If You Had 1 billion dollars then it would now be worth 12 billion dollars." Yet $100 would have been 5 ozt so $6000 ish. Shiny metal obviously wins against paper notes.

In 1930 average new house cost $7,145.00 and by 1939 was $3,800.00

In 1930 the average income per year was $1,970.00 and by 1939 was $1,730.00

dow inflation adjusted http://www.itulip.com/realdow.htm

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I don't know why we bother RichyC? Half this lot don't know what's good for them, it's like trying to discuss something rationally with a woman, of absolutely no use.

Oh well, when gold is at £1000 an ounce and their savings have taken a right royal kicking we'll see how much fight they have left in them. ;)

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Calling tops and bottoms is the most expensive activity one can get involved in.

Ride the wave, stay mobile so you can get out, take profits to rebalance, and don't put too much in one asset class.

The trend is your friend.

Edited by Money Spinner

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Very trendy call with the I see bubbles mindset

I see Dead Bubbles?

where are they?

They are everywhere marmy!

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I often wonder this. When the US govt seized (never got to that, but some was exchanged voluntarily) in the 1930s, holders got over $20 per troy ounce. If they had invested it in the stock market (or, probably houses too) back then that $20 would be worth far more than the $1250 dollars a troy ounce now. In retrospect, they got a good deal.

Except that once the gold was "acquired", the price of gold was set at $35 dollars an ounce. An immediate 75% increase.

I'm not sure about "voluntarily" either:

Section 9. Whoever willfully violates any provision of this Executive Order or these regulation or of any rule, regulation or license issued there under may be fined not more than $10,000, or,if a natural person may be imprisoned for not more than ten years or both; and any officer, director, or agent of any corporation who knowingly participates in any such violation may be punished by a like fine, imprisonment, or both.

LINK

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:lol: LMAO!

Well f*ck me. Glad I clicked on this post. Who would have thought Realist Bear would be starting to change his mind on gold.

Too many tops? Falling back? It's the behaviour of your typical investment market, that's all. Precious metals have always been volatile in the short run. Does the stock market advance in a straight line?

To prove the point please see this link, it's a set of charts quoting the daily gold price in many major currencies, alongside the 5 year price chart for those currencies.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-price-forex.html

Fundamentals aside, as you can see from the 5 year charts, we are nowhere near a gold top. For a bull market to roll over we need to enter the parabolic stage and reach a blow off top. Gold's advance over the previous years has been fairly linear once the volatility is ironed out (just draw a straight line from the starting point to the end point). There's tonnes more mileage in this baby, but I suppose investors can always try their hand at property, dollars, euro, sterling, bonds or commodities right now if they think they're a better bet.

Free your mind of this Gold prejudice you have RB. Spend a few days trying to fully digest the work of the Gold experts and working out why Gold is rising, rather than scouring the net for bearish Gold news everyday.

Why don't you ever talk Silver down?

If you want a Bubble...try DEBT and FIAT MONEY PRINTING!

edit - you should actually get some bear food today though. Things will get interesting if Gold doesn't go down a good $20 and Silver $.50 today (26th Aug).

Where I lived in Belgium you could put as much rubbish as you wanted out but you had to do it in special bags bought from the supermarket - they were about 1.50 EUR each I think. So the notoriously stingy locals in my village just started burning all their rubbish or fly tipping it.

Also a drunk binman would shake me down for a 20 euro "cadeaux" every Christmas. The unspoken but Cointreau scented implication was that I'd better hand it over if I didn't want my rubbish thrown all over the street for the next 51 weeks.

it all make sense but have you given thought to the idea there might be a hidden agenda.

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Natural Gas

Verdict: A bubble

Natural gas is 75% off its 2005 highs. Calling it a bubble now is ludicrous. Now is more like the time to start accumulating. I doubt that they will ever give natural gas away for free so pyramiding down looks good from here.

Edited by urban_hymn

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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