Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
gruffydd

Ireland's Property Crash Could've Been Avoided?

Recommended Posts

In its investigation the CPI was assisted by informed whistle blowers and by some less endowed developers watching from outside the loop. It soon emerged that a cosy and politically well connected, cartel was operating in the docklands area.

...at it's height in '06 the public greed was like a virus induced delirium...nothing could stop it ...except ...like a car at speed without brakes ...a crash .... :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It could certainly have been avoided.... But the HPC is only a revert to the mean after the HPI. And during the housing boom of Ireland, I recall a smug Irish government criticizing other European government who wanted them to increase taxes (to moderate their economic growth prompted by very low rates) that they should manage their own countries better, and if they had to impose taxes, it's basically because they weren't competitive and should follow the Irish example.

It could have been avoided, but nobody seemed to want that.... The only country that seems to care (and fails majorly to do anything meaningful anyway) is China.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great stuff!!!!

How anyone with half a brain couldn't see what was coming - beats me.... :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Have been mostly based in Dublin area for last decade. Lived in UK during ninties recession and witnessed negative equity etc. at first hand. When I came here realised that the massive increase in house prices was completely unreal, even moreso than previous British bubbles. it was sustained by government tax initiatives, cheap euro interest rates, but mostly by a media bought off by vested interests peddling blatant nonsense. With a few honourable exceptions (see David McWilliam's excellent work) it was unbelievable how many people in Ireland fell for the same house price con.Very few commentators were willing to put their heads above the parapet. However many people saw what was happening and profited spectaculary from the bubble. These were in general the over fifties and boomers, who in my opinion were happy to stand by as the under thirties fell for the barrage of property porn unleashed at them. Many of these older guys pulled out in time and are now happily ensconced on golf courses in the Algarve living off the profits their over hyped properties garnered. As always a certain cohort had to buy out of necessity. But in general, as elsewhere in the western world, it was a generation of dumbed down under thirties who fell for the schtick and are now in serious trouble. One academic has rec koned prices will fall approx 80% from the height of the bubble in 06/07. There are parts of the country, especially the midwest, filled with "ghost estates". These will inevitably be knocked down or palmed off at rock bottom pricers. In my own opinion, by the time this bottoms out, a 3 bed semi, even near Dublin, will go for approx 100k, while some unfortunates are paying mortgages on same for anything between 400k-600k. Desperate times for many and a salutory tale for many in UK and elsewhere as to why we must be ever vigilant against the housing bulls.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only way of preventing the Irish property crash was to stop it from happening in the first place. Prices were already stupid by the end of the 90s and needed to cool off.

Instead, with the advent of the Euro and prolonged super-low interest rates the market went into all-out turbo overdrive from 2000 onwards, until the 2007 crisis.

I guess if they'd managed to discover what Anglo Irish were up to earlier then they could have limited the damage to the Irish taxpayer a bit but the real problem was that the entire population went property-mad and wouldn't listen to reason.

Ireland now has the state mired in the bad debts of the banks and large numbers of the public mired in their own jumbo mortgage debt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only way of preventing the Irish property crash was to stop it from happening in the first place. Prices were already stupid by the end of the 90s and needed to cool off.

They should get rid of their currency and be made trade potatoes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The news from Northern Ireland is that large swathes of the place have seen 60% drops in prices - and the velocity of falls is still there - they haven't reached the bottom. BLIMEY! They've barely seen any public sector cuts YET.

Edited by gruffydd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The news from Northern Ireland is that large swathes of the place have seen 60% drops in prices - and the velocity of falls is still there - they haven't reached the bottom. BLIMEY! They've barely seen any public sector cuts YET.

Northern Ireland had the dubious advantage of attracting surplus investor money from the Republic of Ireland as well as looking like a good home for excess cash from GB investors, at least before prices went completely ga-ga.

The result was average Belfast house price exceeding average London price. Total madness since just about the only people who want to live in NI are locals and a recent batch of Eastern European immigrants - neither groups being known for their high disposable income. I think at one stage prices were averaging 8x local wages.

Prices are now about 40% off peak (on average) and probably will go to >50% down before any recovery. Since there is such a high dependency on public sector employment (something like 70% either in public sector or servicing it), the crash could be even worse if the UK government decides to wield the public sector axe more heavily in a place where they have no votes to lose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only way of preventing the Irish property crash was to stop it from happening in the first place. Prices were already stupid by the end of the 90s and needed to cool off.

Instead, with the advent of the Euro and prolonged super-low interest rates the market went into all-out turbo overdrive from 2000 onwards, until the 2007 crisis.

I guess if they'd managed to discover what Anglo Irish were up to earlier then they could have limited the damage to the Irish taxpayer a bit but the real problem was that the entire population went property-mad and wouldn't listen to reason.

Ireland now has the state mired in the bad debts of the banks and large numbers of the public mired in their own jumbo mortgage debt.

The outstanding things that made it all go 'ballistic' was the E.U. pumping Billions per annum (for nearly 2 decades) to get Ireland to build major civilian/infrastructure projects and the 'Civil War' ceasefire in N.I. where house prices were severely below market levels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The outstanding things that made it all go 'ballistic' was the E.U. pumping Billions per annum (for nearly 2 decades) to get Ireland to build major civilian/infrastructure projects and the 'Civil War' ceasefire in N.I. where house prices were severely below market levels.

No. The Banks. Never forget the BANKS. That is all you need to know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.