Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Realistbear

Telegraph: Double Dip Cancelled This Morning

Recommended Posts

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7954930/High-sales-and-low-debts-lift-recovery-hopes.html

High sales and low debts lift recovery hopes
Britain was given four reasons to cheer on Thursday as a slew of upbeat economic data raised hopes that the recovery is here to stay.
By Philip "Baldy" Aldrick, Economics Editor
Published: 5:50AM BST 20 Aug 2010
Britain's debt burden still remains at a record £927bn. Figures on retail sales, public debt, business confidence and mortgage lending all beat expectations – reducing fears of a double-dip recession. "This and other evidence suggest GDP growth got off to a good start in the third quarter," said Investec chief economist Philip Shaw.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales rose 1.1pc on the month, the strongest growth since February and well above analyst forecasts for a 0.4pc rise.
Related Articles
UK borrowing falls as country slides deeper into debt
Economy is on a knife-edge, warn BoE rate setters
David Cameron gets thumbs up from business groups after first 100 days
Mervyn King 'surprised' by strength of inflation
Disposable income 'set to fall'
'High inflation for longer' Public borrowing also fell sharply from £6.1bn to £3.8bn for the month of July as income from corporate tax soared by 38pc, lifting hopes that the Government will get the country's record £927bn debt burden under control.
Sterling rose 0.4 cents against the dollar to $1.5632* and 0.18 cents against the euro to €1.215, as the figures allayed concerns that faltering consumer and business confidence in the face of up-coming Government spending cuts would tip the economy back into recession.
Vicky Redwood, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "Not only did the latest UK data suggest that the fiscal position is tentatively improving, but it looks like the slowdown emerging in the wider economy has not spread to the High Street yet."

Its the painless recovereh.

*1.5558 this morning

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its the painless recovereh.

*1.5558 this morning

The Forex boyz are not buying it, but they know what we know, the UK housing market, which is the UK economy, is about to slide again.

Edited by MrFlibble

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Forex boyz are not buying it, but they know what we know, the UK housing market, which is the UK economy, is about to slide again.

100% accurate. This country is HPI dependent.

In the meantime the gold boys aren't buying the propaganda either:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-19/gold-may-advance-as-recovery-concern-spurs-demand-survey-shows.html

Gold May Advance as Concern Economic Recovery May Falter Boosting Demand
By Nicholas "Nik" Larkin - Aug 20, 2010 12:01 AM GMT+0100
Business ExchangeTwitterDeliciousDiggFacebookLinkedInNewsvinePropellerYahoo! BuzzPrint Gold may advance as concern that the global economic recovery is slowing increases demand for the metal as a protection of wealth, a survey found.
Nineteen of 24 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 79 percent, said the metal will gain next week.

This must surely be a buy signal to load up on more gold? Or is the Telegraph right and a recovery is coming which means to sell gold. But hang on, if we are in a recovereh gold will go down because there is no longer a danger to the economy and flights to safe havens (real or imaginary). But if the gold boys in the Bloomberg article are right and there is no recovereh things will deflate and that means you are better off in bonds. But then again, the Telegraph article may be government propaganda or the gold boys are trying to pump before they dump........

Bottom line: Why should there be a recovery if we haven't yet had a recent recession but rather a rebound from a year or so ago?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could people be spending more because things are now more expensive .. rather than buying more things ?

fewer people going on foreign holidays; they still have to eat and buy tat from seaside resorts...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The UK recovery seems to be doomed to fail, and so it should be, it was a faux recovery. We only left recession on the back of QE, ZIRP and Stimulus. I suspect we'll now compound the 'create money to create growth' mistake with a 'create money to maintain growth' mistake.

On one hand the ConDems are saying we must cut our cloth to match our purse but on the other old Merv is at the Xerox machine with lust in his eyes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Notice all the "M&A" activtily, BHP trying to buy Potash.......EVERYONE trying to buy EVERYTHING?.................they would rather have "SOMETHING" than "Paper".

Mike

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They have cancelled the recovereh again this morning which is why £ and Euro are sinking fast vs. the $. The bouyant/flying off the shelves Telegraph article appears to have been sidelined for reality from the US and the rest of the world as stocks continue their steady decline towrad a few black days.

1.26947

1.54896

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/World-stocks-down-as-US-apf-1166499081.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

World stock markets down as US economic fears weigh and trousers are filled
Pan Pylas, AP Business Writer, On Friday August 20, 2010, 6:10 am
LONDON (
AP
) -- World markets dropped further Friday as concerns about the U.S. economy continued to dominate sentiment after yet another batch of disappointing data.
Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest UK Debt Slave

More tractors are being bought because grain prices are going through the roof, not suprising really.

Yeah! But do they start when you turn the key? :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah! But do they start when you turn the key? :blink:

A bit of symbolism going on here as our original and best trackies* were made by David Brown who, in an age of increasing afluence, morphed them into the DB series of fine sports cars. Only to be bought by successive foreign owners once the faux service based economy took over from manufacturing nice kit for export around the world.

BTW: worlds best investments: drop head DB4s.

*Trendy farmer speak for tractors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7954930/High-sales-and-low-debts-lift-recovery-hopes.html

High sales and low debts lift recovery hopes
Britain was given four reasons to cheer on Thursday as a slew of upbeat economic data raised hopes that the recovery is here to stay.
By Philip "Baldy" Aldrick, Economics Editor
Published: 5:50AM BST 20 Aug 2010
Britain's debt burden still remains at a record £927bn. Figures on retail sales, public debt, business confidence and mortgage lending all beat expectations – reducing fears of a double-dip recession. "This and other evidence suggest GDP growth got off to a good start in the third quarter," said Investec chief economist Philip Shaw.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales rose 1.1pc on the month, the strongest growth since February and well above analyst forecasts for a 0.4pc rise.
Related Articles
UK borrowing falls as country slides deeper into debt
Economy is on a knife-edge, warn BoE rate setters
David Cameron gets thumbs up from business groups after first 100 days
Mervyn King 'surprised' by strength of inflation
Disposable income 'set to fall'
'High inflation for longer' Public borrowing also fell sharply from £6.1bn to £3.8bn for the month of July as income from corporate tax soared by 38pc, lifting hopes that the Government will get the country's record £927bn debt burden under control.
Sterling rose 0.4 cents against the dollar to $1.5632* and 0.18 cents against the euro to €1.215, as the figures allayed concerns that faltering consumer and business confidence in the face of up-coming Government spending cuts would tip the economy back into recession.
Vicky Redwood, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "Not only did the latest UK data suggest that the fiscal position is tentatively improving, but it looks like the slowdown emerging in the wider economy has not spread to the High Street yet."

Its the painless recovereh.

*1.5558 this morning

There has been some careful spoonfeeding to the writer of this article! The interpretation being given to much of the information is at odds with much that has recently been published, such as reports of 'deep discounting' holding up spending; the fact that mortgage lending fell from the same month last year etc. Here we have the report that mortgage lending rose (very slightly) on the month before.

The information is confusing, but strip out all the 'noise' and the whole western world economy is indeed on a knife edge. The Baltic Dry index has suffered the sharpest fall on record (except for 2008), the US is looking very 'double dip', unemployment is increasing and treasuries are being bought by central banks in increasing amounts. Greece is looking very ill. Where is the news on Spain, Portugal and the Eastern Euro bankrupts? The news on China remains very hard to trust .

All this is going on when the UK has barely begun to put the 25% cuts in place. The argument to have them is won, but that's on the basis that those who will be affected have not suffered the actuality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.