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guitarman001

Inflation 'eases' From 3.2% To 3.1%

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Wow!! :P

But it's still rising!! This must be great news for those with NS&I index-linked certificates (wish I put more money in them!)

Look at the BBC spin, just look at their spin!!!!!!

UK inflation slows again in July

This is pure NLP.

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NLP?

There's one thing we're good at: bullsh!tting...

How they can call it a drop is beyond me...

If the speed of a car changes from 70mph to 68mph, would we say that it has slowed down?

Changes of 0.1% are in the statistical error territory.

Edited by Pole

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Look at the BBC spin, just look at their spin!!!!!!

UK inflation slows again in July

This is pure NLP.

Inflation is 'falling' accoring to Radio 5 this morning

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Inflation is 'falling' accoring to Radio 5 this morning

I thought it was still going up....why over the government target.

The BoE seem incapable of doind their job/

They should all be sacked and 9 HPCers put in charge.

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Deflation it is then. Best keep that rate at 0.5% <_<

We may laugh but it looks like the above will be preached to the public for the next couple of months.

But surely at some point something must give in... When will people wake up that they're being robbed big-time by the bankers???

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How they can call it a drop is beyond me...

If the speed of a car changes from 70mph to 68mph, would we say that it has slowed down?

Umm... yes. Not newspaper-headline-worthy slowing down, but if 68mph is not slower than 70mph, then physics is wrong. And maths.

Changes of 0.1% are in the statistical error territory.

That's true as well..

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Umm... yes. Not newspaper-headline-worthy slowing down, but if 68mph is not slower than 70mph, then physics is wrong. And maths.

That's my point. Would anyone say they were happy that the car 'slowed down' from 70mph to 68mph before it hit them?

The headlines should say that the inflation levels remain unchanged and as a result people are getting poorer because prices are going up much faster than wages. That's the reality.

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Changes of 0.1% are in the statistical error territory.

Yep, my thoughts exactly.

0.1% will easily be revised away a month or two down the line and to all intents and purposes is not a change at all.

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Ill chip in here too with my "Famous" food parcel from the other thread

My food parcel says no

August 2010 £37.99

August 2007 £33.59

a 13% rise in 3 years.

Indeed compared to July 2009 its cheaper by £1.07 this August.

and here is the explanation

Hi guys.

As I said earlier, I used to post the food parcel every month..when my daughter went to UNI.

It is a selection of foods SHE wanted delivered by a large Orange Logo'd Supermarket.

The ACTUAL parcel varied, but, the website allowed you to select the same foods every time you visited.

I however, felt the CPI didnt reflect the rises in the price of this particular sample of food.

So I did it, recorded the quantities, the exact items and weights, so that as weights changed I adjusted. I also included the prorata price for any specials.

The food parcel, which was about £30 plus carriage at its start, rose at a much higher rate than CPI, sometimes by about 13%. Carriage was NOT included in the calculation, just the foods.

It was some veg, sauces, bread, pasta, meats (cooked and raw) Eggs and other odds and sods....No Ipods, memory sticks or beds.

My daughter left Uni and interest waned in the parcel itself ( so it appeared) so I stopped doing it every month.

However, I did tend to do the calculation again whenever inflation became of interest. This thread on the face of it looked like a good example.

the PARCEL was recosted yesterday and compared to the self same parcel from 3 years ago. It was UP, but not by 58%.

And interestingly, compared to JULY 2009, just over a year, it is CHEAPER.

remember, this is same shop, same food, same quantities.

CPI is over 3% I understand. it is easy to explain this in terms of the food parcel, which is based on actual prices of the same food, the same shop the same quantities. A previous poster claimed there were "adjustments" made to the CPI...this was clearly going on when the inflation in the parcel was MUCH WORSE, 2007/8, so they included the things in the CPI like Memory sticks and beds...which at the time were falling in price.

Also, people could buy from ALDI and Netto....these trends too would have been reflected in the CPI. NOW...those cost reducing measures are OUT of the system, and whereas the food parcel was inflating at 13% for a while, the CPI is just catching up...as it must if there is any truth in any of the figures.

The company selling the food parcel may indeed have targetted all the items in the basket, but I am inknown to them and the parcel hasnt actually been ordered for a long time.

Im on the wrong computer to post the actual contents, but there is nothing there that is not on the shelves at the large Orange Logo'd Supermarket, indeed, in any other Supermarket. The parcel is not a SUpermarket comparison, just a simple basket of the same food, same store, same quantities.

and here is the actual original, Genuine, Famous, Food parcel make up from december 2006

Homepride Cook-In-Sauce, Curry 500g Homepride Cook-In-Sauce, Chasseur 500g Sainsbury's Fresh Milk 2.27L (4pint) Bernard Matthews' Cooked Turkey Dinosaur Roll 100g Sainsbury's Cooked Ham, Wafer Thin, American Style 200g Sainsbury's Chicken, Wafer Thin 400g Sainsbury's Smoked Mackerel Fillets approx. 250g Sainsbury's Yellow Pepper Sainsbury's Celery Sainsbury's Iceberg Lettuce Sainsbury's Sweet Potatoes 1kg Fairtrade Bananas x7 Sainsbury's Golden Delicious Apples x7 Sainsbury's Wholemeal Multigrain Loaf, Taste the Difference 800g Hovis Granary Loaf 800g Sainsbury's Mini Chicken Fillet 375g x2 Sainsbury's Steak Mince, Lean 250g Goodfellas Delicia Margerita Pizza 290g (2) Schwartz Authentic Sauce Mixes, for Spaghetti Bolognese 40g x2 Heinz Salad Cream, Light, Squeezable Bottle 420g Petrol price per litre Sainsburys (50 litres) Sainsburys Eggs free range medium 12 (green box)

Note the weights are included.

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If the speed of a car changes from 70mph to 68mph, would we say that it has slowed down?

The correct analogy with inflation rates is to say that the acceleration of the car has fallen i.e. the rate that prices are increasing has slowed.

The car is still getting faster and faster, just at a slightly slower rate than it was. Prices have not dropped, so the car isn't going from 70 mph to 68 mph, it is going from 70 mph to 73mph, not to 73.2mph as previously expected.

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Wow!! :P

But it's still rising!! This must be great news for those with NS&I index-linked certificates (wish I put more money in them!)

Well... not really. I maxed out on them a couple of months ago and, since then, the RPI has not changed much. The headline YoY figures are really a bit misleading. Although the RPI is 4.8% higher now than it was last year, it is actually lower than it was last month, i.e. prices have actually fallen on a MoM basis. So I'm not getting much return at the moment.

However, there is normally a seasonal fall in RPI from June to July (though it is greater than usual this year), so I'm not too worried about it. And the VAT hike at the end of the year should give RPI a boost too.

Edited by snowflux

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Umm... yes. Not newspaper-headline-worthy slowing down, but if 68mph is not slower than 70mph, then physics is wrong. And maths.

That's true as well..

I think that if a car slows from 70 to 68 mph it is still going forward.

The same can't be said about the UK economy - inflation may be 3.1% but we aren't moving forward.

More like we've got stuck in some mud with the wheels spinning.

And the only way to get out of the mud is not to push hard and put some stones under the wheels - NO!

The only way to get the car moving is to through lots of clean water at the dirty mud. Maybe we can wash away all the mud and the car will hopefully not be left in a giant puddle.

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One person at my work has mentioned this. Had BBC news page up at time

"Good news on inflation today"

Well unless his wages have risen more than 4.8% in the last year ? There is no good news.

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Look at the BBC spin, just look at their spin!!!!!!

UK inflation slows again in July

This is pure NLP.

Agreed that "UK inflation much the same" might have been better, although in fairness they go on to say:

UK inflation slows again in July

UK inflation eased to 3.1% in July from 3.2% in June, still well above the Bank of England's 2% target rate.

How they can call it a drop is beyond me...

If the speed of a car changes from 70mph to 68mph, would we say that it has slowed down?

Changes of 0.1% are in the statistical error territory.

In that case, I presume you don't mind taking a 0.1% pay cut this year? It's only a statistical error.

A car that has gone from 70mph to 68mph has slowed down - just not by much.

The correct analogy with inflation rates is to say that the acceleration of the car has fallen i.e. the rate that prices are increasing has slowed.

The car is still getting faster and faster, just at a slightly slower rate than it was. Prices have not dropped, so the car isn't going from 70 mph to 68 mph, it is going from 70 mph to 73mph, not to 73.2mph as previously expected.

I think this analogy is actually more complex than the inflation situation! :blink:

By your analogy prices are the speed of the car, I would have thought you would be better to treat prices as the distance covered and inflation as the speed of the car.

The bottom line is that inflation is slightly lower than last month, but still well ahead of wage increases.

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Agreed that "UK inflation much the same" might have been better, although in fairness they go on to say:

In that case, I presume you don't mind taking a 0.1% pay cut this year? It's only a statistical error.

A car that has gone from 70mph to 68mph has slowed down - just not by much.

I think this analogy is actually more complex than the inflation situation! :blink:

By your analogy prices are the speed of the car, I would have thought you would be better to treat prices as the distance covered and inflation as the speed of the car.

The bottom line is that inflation is slightly lower than last month, but still well ahead of wage increases.

inflation rate would be the rate of change of speed of the car.

so a 10% increase in inflation would make the speed go from 50mph last year to 55mph this year. a drop in inflation to say 5% would make this years speed 57.75Mph next year.

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That's my point. Would anyone say they were happy that the car 'slowed down' from 70mph to 68mph before it hit them?

The headlines should say that the inflation levels remain unchanged and as a result people are getting poorer because prices are going up much faster than wages. That's the reality.

Unfortunately, the sheeple will NOT get it until:

1 months Sky subscription = £100

Pack of 20 fags = £10

McDonalds Big Mac = £10

Fish & Chips from the local chippy = £15

1 pint of beer = £10

Bottle of Lambrini = £10

....you get my drift.

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Well... not really. I maxed out on them a couple of months ago and, since then, the RPI has not changed much. The headline YoY figures are really a bit misleading. Although the RPI is 4.8% higher now than it was last year, it is actually lower than it was last month, i.e. prices have actually fallen on a MoM basis. So I'm not getting much return at the moment.

Sigh. Yet another person who doesn't know how NS&I inflation-linked certificates work.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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