Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
koala_bear

Guardian: "public Sector Job Cuts To Hit House Prices"

Recommended Posts

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/aug/16/public-sector-job-losses-house-prices

Good to see the media (and Hometrack!) beginning to understand what is coming:

"Areas of the country most vulnerable to public sector job cuts have been warned to brace themselves for falling house prices as research reveals a widening gap between state and private sector-focused property markets.

Analysis by research group Hometrack for the Guardian shows those areas of the country with the highest proportion of public sector employees are already seeing homes sell significantly further below their asking price than elsewhere. Hometrack says the findings are an early indicator of stagnating and even falling prices in areas such as Aberystwyth, Rhyl and Morpeth in Northumberland...."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/aug/16/public-sector-job-losses-house-prices

Good to see the media (and Hometrack!) beginning to understand what is coming:

"Areas of the country most vulnerable to public sector job cuts have been warned to brace themselves for falling house prices as research reveals a widening gap between state and private sector-focused property markets.

Analysis by research group Hometrack for the Guardian shows those areas of the country with the highest proportion of public sector employees are already seeing homes sell significantly further below their asking price than elsewhere. Hometrack says the findings are an early indicator of stagnating and even falling prices in areas such as Aberystwyth, Rhyl and Morpeth in Northumberland...."

That'll be the north and the celtic fringe then ... not exactly Tory core vote though could hurt the Liberals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/aug/16/public-sector-job-losses-house-prices

Good to see the media (and Hometrack!) beginning to understand what is coming:

"Areas of the country most vulnerable to public sector job cuts have been warned to brace themselves for falling house prices as research reveals a widening gap between state and private sector-focused property markets.

Analysis by research group Hometrack for the Guardian shows those areas of the country with the highest proportion of public sector employees are already seeing homes sell significantly further below their asking price than elsewhere. Hometrack says the findings are an early indicator of stagnating and even falling prices in areas such as Aberystwyth, Rhyl and Morpeth in Northumberland...."

Rhyl had a huge BTL boom.

Aber - we call it Aber in Wales because none of us can remember how to spell it - boomed from a lot of Welsh language QUNAGOs being set up there and it started to become trendy with people moving from England... but it is such a hard place to get to//from from London so I am not surprised for it to see house price stagnation.

Heck, it is ruddy difficult for me to get there. I do like Aber though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like bigger falls, on top of the 40% odd already, will be coming to Northern Ireland then. Over here, 78% of the money spent into the economy, comes from the government purse! :blink:

I was eyeing up a nice custom build, on an acre of NI countryside, down from £485k to £260k the other day. Still too expensive compared to the average wage here (22k ish), never mind that of the local county folk.

Having been out on Saturday night, they're already talking of cuts here. Out of the 6 of us, I was the only one in private sector employment. 1 teacher, 2 social services, 1 IT (in govt. dept) and one returning to university again. Other than construction, which has collapsed, there is very little private sector work here at all to speak of.

Edited by Traktion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like bigger falls, on top of the 40% odd already, will be coming to Northern Ireland then. Over here, 78% of the money spent into the economy, comes from the government purse! :blink:

I was eyeing up a nice custom build, on an acre of NI countryside, down from £485k to £260k the other day. Still too expensive compared to the average wage here (22k ish), never mind that of the local county folk.

Having been out on Saturday night, they're already talking of cuts here. Out of the 6 of us, I was the only one in private sector employment. 1 teacher, 2 social services, 1 IT and one returning to university again. Other than construction, which has collapsed, there is very little private sector work here at all to speak of.

Why is NI suffering so much? Have the public sector cuts begun en masse there - if so, when did they begin?

I find it odd that NI is so ahead of the rest of the UK. What is the cause?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Having been out on Saturday night, they're already talking of cuts here. Out of the 6 of us, I was the only one in private sector employment. 1 teacher, 2 social services, 1 IT (in govt. dept) and one returning to university again. Other than construction, which has collapsed, there is very little private sector work here at all to speak of.

Had a 10 years since we left reunion with my university friends the other week:

Of 20 of us only 4 were in the private sector and of them 2 (including me) relied on the public sector for 50% or more of their income. Of all of us only 1 had a proper business career in a company that makes and sells products.

Of course a reduction in public spending is going to cause a drop in house prices. I'm now getting a horrible feeling that the contract I had lined up for next year (a big project I have had to invest over £2k of my own money in to win the contract) with a public sector client is going to not happen. I've e-mailed and left numerous phone messages and they simply don't respond. Repeat this situation across the land and you'll see confidence in the future shot.

Edited by Timak

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is NI suffering so much? Have the public sector cuts begun en masse there - if so, when did they begin?

I find it odd that NI is so ahead of the rest of the UK. What is the cause?

1. We're about as far from the South East as you can go. Westminster and 'The City' feels a long way from here.

2. Prices here went loopy (more expensive than London at the absolute peak). It was re-enforced by the so-called 'peace dividend', which was another excuse by the VIs for the cause of HPI. As such, people thought it would be a flaw under the prices - we shall see!

3. Lots of money came in from the ROI too, with them 'snapping up' the bargain prices in NI, relative to those which had become bloated by credit in the south.

EDIT: 4. House prices are public bids. People got bidding against BTLs a lot too. The last push in prices was probably a lot to do with the panic of 'missing the boat' because of this.

EDIT: 5. There hadn't been a housing boom here before, so maybe people were a bit unwise to it too.

As for the lack of private sector jobs, that probably cuts much more deeply. I'd imagine it relates to the troubles putting people off doing business here, as well as the fact that public sector jobs pay very well compared to the private sector. Government investment, post the bulk of the troubles, probably helped turn the country around, but the private sector has struggled to compete, IMO.

Prices here have been falling throughout the bounce reported in the rest of the UK - they haven't stopped falling since the crisis hit. This slowed a bit over the last year or so, but it seems to be ramping up again and with the job cuts, I think another big leg down will come. We're already about 40% down and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up close to 70% in the end, with a long period (decades) of stagnation.

With the ROI having its own (arguably, even worse) problems, it's all looking rather bleak. Changes will have to happen here, but hopefully not at the butt of a gun or pipe bomb. The other half was diverted on her way home on Saturday, as the police had a road block up (complete with officers with assault rifles in the bushes etc), because they found a pipe bomb on the main road, near where a police officer lives - this was about 5-6 miles away from here. I've spoken with locals (I'm English) and they don't think people want this stuff happening again, but it's getting a bit close to home already and the public job cut axe has hardly started swinging! :ph34r:

P.S. I probably over egged the last bit, there. Late last year, my local town had the main road towards Dublin closed for a few days after a truck was reported as parked full of explosives on the outskirts. Apparently, the driver had chickened out and reported it to the police. I suppose in comparison to this, it's not getting an 'worse' in the above! :lol: The frequency seems to be picking up though.

Strangely, when you live here, it all feels rather detached from your daily routine. I fear it less than when I was in England, thinking of moving here. That sounds weird, but maybe it's just because it feels more 'normal' here or something, a sort of acceptance that this happens. Still, it will do wonders for cheap house prices, I suppose! :lol:

Edited by Traktion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had a 10 years since we left reunion with my university friends the other week:

Of 20 of us only 4 were in the private sector and of them 2 (including me) relied on the public sector for 50% or more of their income. Of all of us only 1 had a proper business career in a company that makes and sells products.

Of course a reduction in public spending is going to cause a drop in house prices. I'm now getting a horrible feeling that the contract I had lined up for next year (a big project I have had to invest over £2k of my own money in to win the contract) with a public sector client is going to not happen. I've e-mailed and left numerous phone messages and they simply don't respond. Repeat this situation across the land and you'll see confidence in the future shot.

:blink:

Even a 7% cut in the public sector would double the unemployment figure here, from looking at the figures. If this ends up being 10-20%... game over man! :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just reading the article it appears to be much of Wales and the extreme North of England they are talking about.

I should imagine any region with heavy government subsidy, which will inevitably get trimmed, will hurt badly. Heads 'The City' wins, tails the rest of the country loses! <_<

(That said, the rest of the country gets a lot of hand outs, so swings and roundabouts, I suppose!)

Edited by Traktion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How will sunny Jockland cope !!

I remember reading an article a while ago, that many govt departments were being moved from Edinburgh to Inverness..Like Aberystwyth, I can imagine it being fairly devastating for a moderately small community...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember reading an article a while ago, that many govt departments were being moved from Edinburgh to Inverness..Like Aberystwyth, I can imagine it being fairly devastating for a moderately small community...

The Labour Party started relocating quango's and the like out of Edinburgh but the SNP tried to knock it on the head, saying it was a waste of money. AFAIK, only Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) got sent to Inverness, some Transport Scotland folk to Glasgow and the Public Pensions Agency went to Gala.

SNH and the University of Highlands and Islands are big employers up in Inverness, though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully the lack of job advertising will this this piece of s&it newspaper hard too.

There is soemthing about Guardian readers that really gets on my nerves, I know lots of them and for some reason they all think that reading that Guardian makes them in some way superior to the rest of us.

There has been plenty of grumbling about the sudden lack of very highly paid public sector roles for them to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2. Prices here went loopy (more expensive than London at the absolute peak). It was re-enforced by the so-called 'peace dividend', which was another excuse by the VIs for the cause of HPI. As such, people thought it would be a flaw under the prices - we shall see!

Which university did you go to?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is NI suffering so much? Have the public sector cuts begun en masse there - if so, when did they begin?

I find it odd that NI is so ahead of the rest of the UK. What is the cause?

Its ireland, Average NI and Irish houseprices almost exceeded london prices in the boom...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't have you down as a spelling bee! :lol: Ofc, I meant floor! :P

I saw it as a delightful Freudian slip. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.