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The Masked Tulip

Rightmove: Uk House Asking Prices Fall For Second Month

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LONDON (MNI) - UK house asking prices fell for the second consecutive month in August, dropping 1.7% on the month versus a 0.6% fall in July, according to the UK's largest property website, Rightmove.

Following a price rise of 7.0% between January and June, prices have now fallen back by 2.3% in the last two months, according to the Rightmove data.

The annual rate for August came in at 4.3%, up from 3.7% in July.

Oversupply and a lack of buyers combined to produce the biggest monthly drop in asking prices seen so far in 2010, Rightmove said. Average available property per estate agency branch rose for the sixth consecutive month to 79, up from 77 in July.

Rightmove said that new stock advertised on its website is now running at an average weekly rate of 29,220. This compares to Bank of England data which show mortgage approvals running at much less than half that - at an average weekly rate of 13,852 through June.

http://www.automatedtrader.net/real-time-news/53777/rightmove-uk-house-asking-prices-fall-for-second-month

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Thought I'd start a topic with an apt topic, here is the link ...

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2010/08/august-2010.pdf

· Newly marketed property down by over £4,091 (1.7%) as over-supply coincides with holidaying

buyers — but search activity on Rightmove sets a new daily record

· Available stock per agent rises for sixth consecutive month; the highest August for fresh property

for three years — 29,220 a week compared with 20,675 last year (+41.3%)

· Falling prices are good news for the 6 out of 10 renters who would like to buy but state they

cannot afford to

· Anticipated interest rate rises could lead to more repossessions - though this would improve

buyer affordability by exerting further downward price pressure

Overview

New seller supply continues to outstrip demand, and as the holiday season continues, Rightmove

reports an average asking price fall of 1.7% (£4,091) across the 117,000 new properties added this

month. This is the biggest reduction in asking prices we have measured so far this year, and follows on

from the drop of 0.6% in July.

Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove comments: “No one really wants to come to market in August

unless they have to. It shows these new sellers have a compelling need to sell, as they have lopped over

£4,000 off the average asking price. Those who marketed earlier in the year but have yet to find a buyer

may have to do a bit of pruning of their own to beat this new competition. Holidaying buyers can relax

on the beach while back at home sellers are reducing the cost of their future property by the price of

the family holiday”.

August and December are the two months of the year that traditionally see price falls. However, it

should be noted that this is the second consecutive monthly fall in a year that, until July, had only seen

rises. Following gains of 7.0% from January to June, prices have now fallen back by 2.3% in the last two

months. We predict that the gains made so far this year will have dissipated by year end, although there

could be some individual monthly rises in the more active months of September and October. However,

market conditions bear some similarities to the second half of 2008. Then prices fell by 7.1% between

August and the end of the year as buyers unwilling or unable to proceed left agents with unsold stock

levels similar to those currently being recorded by Rightmove.

Shipside adds: “There needs to be a spur to cause prices to rise. However, as mortgages won’t become

available to the masses and last year’s stock shortages show no sign of re-appearing, we can’t see it

happening during the remainder of 2010. You don’t need to be a fortune teller to predict what cards a

seller can play to find a buyer. Unless their property is a bit of a rarity, the only cards left are the ones

that read ‘chop the price’ or ‘spruce up the presentation’”.

Average available property per estate agency branch went up again last month, the sixth consecutive

rise, providing further evidence of supply continuing to outstrip demand. It now stands at 79, up from

77 the previous month. New stock advertised on Rightmove is now at an average weekly run-rate of

29,220. This comes against a backdrop of June’s mortgage approvals (as reported by the Bank of

England on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) at an average weekly run-rate of 13,852. Rightmove’s new

listing figures are down by 5.4% on July, but up 41.3% on the same period last year. Mortgage approvals

are up by 13.8% on the previous month, yet are down 3.6% on the same period in 2009. While some

property is withdrawn from the market and not every buyer has a mortgage, the imbalance between

mortgage and stock availability remains painfully clear.

Shipside comments: “The number of sellers coming to market is the highest seen in the month of August

for three years. New seller levels seem to be getting back to a degree of pre-credit-crunch normality,

but mortgage levels have a lender-imposed ceiling. Its restricted height is giving the market a long-term

headache as pent-up buyer demand continues to bang up against it. For the market to gain some more

headroom we need to see mortgage approvals running at over 50% of new listings. However, for the

last few months this figure has struggled to consistently hit 40%”.

Pent-up buyer demand is illustrated by a new all-time high of daily activity on Rightmove’s website, with

a seemingly counter-cyclical 25,413,442 pages viewed on August 10th. In addition, the number of pages

of property viewed in July was up 14.5% on the same period last year. The prospect of prices readjusting

downwards over the next few months obviously improves expectations of affordability for

future buyers. However, the timing of the anticipated rises in base rates will also be part of their

thinking. In the latest Rightmove quarterly Consumer Confidence Survey, six out of ten renters stated

that they would like to buy but cannot afford to. With the Bank of England forecasting that inflation will

continue to exceed the Government’s target throughout 2011, borderline buyers will be hoping that the

inevitable rate rises hold off as long as possible. The timing quandary they face is that rate rises maypush some owner-occupiers’ personal finances underwater, especially if their incomes have suffered in the downturn. This could lead to an increase in distressed sellers, though the window of opportunity where the lowest base rates and cheap property deals coincide may remain firmly shut for the deposit poor.

Shipside concludes: “The next twelve to eighteen months could provide a window for those who can

just meet minimum deposit and creditworthiness criteria, as affordably low rates and lower property

prices could marry up. In addition, a period of higher inflation that outstrips flat or falling property

prices makes buying even cheaper in real terms as long as your salary is going up in line with inflation.

These are the conditions that over a few years could herald a sustainable housing market recovery

based on higher buyer volumes as opposed to stock shortages. This would provide a solid foundation for

the property price pendulum to swing back up, fuelled by growing household numbers, lack of newbuild

and easing in mortgage availability. As always, deposit–rich buyers will remain in the driving seat,

and an increase in interest rates will keep the less creditworthy buyers from returning to the market. If

you can’t raise a beefy deposit, cheaper property prices won’t help you much”.

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London House-Price Drop Wipes Out 2010 Gains, Rightmove Says

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- London home sellers cut 17,000 pounds ($26,500) off their asking prices on average in August, wiping out gains recorded in the first half of the year, Rightmove Plc said.

Asking prices in the capital fell 4.1 percent on the month to an average 405,058 pounds, the operator of the nation’s biggest property website said in a report today. The drop is the biggest in two years and returns values to levels seen in January. Prices across England and Wales fell 1.7 percent.

Reports from Nationwide Building Society and Halifax also signal that the U.K.’s housing recovery is faltering, while Rightmove said a squeeze in the availability of credit may limit price gains. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said Aug. 11 the banking system is still “badly damaged” and that is keeping lenders’ funding costs high.

Rightmove’s data show the London boroughs of Wandsworth and Brent led declines in the capital, falling 6.2 percent. Newham was the best performer, slipping 1.2 percent, while the Kensington and Chelsea district fell 1.7 percent.

Chelsea down - will please some who have been waiting for this.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-15/london-house-price-drop-wipes-out-2010-gains-rightmove-says.html

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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Could have done with being a bigger fall but that'll do for now.

This is great news! Having watched the indices tick up or down 0.x% for months, a 1% plus fall in this leading indicator is crashtastic!

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This is great news! Having watched the indices tick up or down 0.x% for months, a 1% plus fall in this leading indicator is crashtastic!

Although this is good news, don't get too excited just yet. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and august often shows a fall.

From the other thread.

Another thing to remember about the rightmove index is that its not seasonally adjusted, so should we always a expect a rise in august purely due to the time of year?

Heres the July and August figures for the last few years

03

July 0.4%

Aug 0.0%

04

Jul 1.2%

Aug -2.0%

05

Jul -1.0%

Aug -0.2%

06

Jul -1.0%

Aug -0.2%

07

Jul 0.3%

Aug 0.6%

08

Jul -1.8%

Aug -2.3%

09

Jul 0.6%

Aug -2.2%

So it's pretty erratic and even in booming months rises are modest in July/August, it's the summer lull.

Actually looking back at the figures from previous months I'm not quite so interested in this Index anymore, they are pretty much all over the place! Still it will be good to see a negative.

So if we are still seeing a fall in this index next month which is seasonally a busy month then it's time to get excited :)

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Although this is good news, don't get too excited just yet. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and august often shows a fall.

From the other thread.

Another thing to remember about the rightmove index is that its not seasonally adjusted, so should we always a expect a rise in august purely due to the time of year?

Heres the July and August figures for the last few years

03

July 0.4%

Aug 0.0%

04

Jul 1.2%

Aug -2.0%

05

Jul -1.0%

Aug -0.2%

06

Jul -1.0%

Aug -0.2%

07

Jul 0.3%

Aug 0.6%

08

Jul -1.8%

Aug -2.3%

09

Jul 0.6%

Aug -2.2%

So it's pretty erratic and even in booming months rises are modest in July/August, it's the summer lull.

Actually looking back at the figures from previous months I'm not quite so interested in this Index anymore, they are pretty much all over the place! Still it will be good to see a negative.

So if we are still seeing a fall in this index next month which is seasonally a busy month then it's time to get excited :)

The one positive for this particular August figure is it is based on unusually high volume.

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"buyer activity is down due to people taking summer holidays"..<_<

"Pent-up buyer demand is illustrated by a new all-time high of daily activity on Rightmove’s website", :unsure:

"The prospect of prices readjusting downwards over the next few months obviously improves expectations of affordability for

future buyers." ;)

"As always, deposit–rich buyers will remain in the driving seat,

and an increase in interest rates will keep the less creditworthy buyers from returning to the market. If

you can’t raise a beefy deposit, cheaper property prices won’t help you much”. :lol::lol:

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So it's pretty erratic and even in booming months rises are modest in July/August, it's the summer lull.

Actually looking back at the figures from previous months I'm not quite so interested in this Index anymore, they are pretty much all over the place! Still it will be good to see a negative.

So if we are still seeing a fall in this index next month which is seasonally a busy month then it's time to get excited :)

Oh well. I suppose these are just asking prices after all.

Still, I did enjoy the desperate search for an upside in the original article:

Pent-up buyer demand is illustrated by a new all-time high of daily activity on Rightmove’s website

Bless.

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GMTV covering this right now as LEAD STORY !!



  • "Sorry to tell you this folks... house prices down"
  • "Houses losing £150 A DAY"
  • "Midlands properties down 4.4% in a month"
  • "Is this the start of a new crash?"

Interview with some old gimps trying to sell their crappy overpriced semi. Already dropped the price and now THROWING IN ALL THE FIXTURES & FURNITURE. Don't know how the presenter didn't burst out laughing when he saw the tat they were including. You'd need 3 skips to bin it all after moving in.

Owner desperately claims that "if this doesn't work, I don't know what will"

Even had an Estate Agent on saying that she was glad people were finally "taking their advice and pricing properties more realistically".

This is it, the final curtain call!

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Interview with some old gimps trying to sell their crappy overpriced semi. Already dropped the price and now THROWING IN ALL THE FIXTURES & FURNITURE. Don't know how the presenter didn't burst out laughing when he saw the tat they were including. You'd need 3 skips to bin it all after moving in.

Owner desperately claims that "if this doesn't work, I don't know what will"

I shouldn't laugh but you know what... :lol::lol::lol:

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GMTV covering this right now as LEAD STORY !!

  • "Sorry to tell you this folks... house prices down"

  • "Houses losing £150 A DAY"

  • "Midlands properties down 4.4% in a month"

  • "Is this the start of a new crash?"

Interview with some old gimps trying to sell their crappy overpriced semi. Already dropped the price and now THROWING IN ALL THE FIXTURES & FURNITURE. Don't know how the presenter didn't burst out laughing when he saw the tat they were including. You'd need 3 skips to bin it all after moving in.

Owner desperately claims that "if this doesn't work, I don't know what will"

Even had an Estate Agent on saying that she was glad people were finally "taking their advice and pricing properties more realistically".

This is it, the final curtain call!

Any sign of the BBC picking up on this yet?

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"Pent-up buyer demand is illustrated by a new all-time high of daily activity on Rightmove’s website", :unsure:

One stupid comment from an otherwise realistic report. This is clearly due the high amounts of people marketing their properties checking rightmove for local area. If your house is for sale you like to see the competition. Especially if your house has had no viewers! :D

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· Newly marketed property down by over £4,091 (1.7%) as over-supply coincides with holidaying

buyers — but search activity on Rightmove sets a new daily record

:lol:

So what about holidaying sellers?!

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Guest notrealhoudini

THE BIG PICTURE

WHAT HAS HAPPENED since 2009:

Mon.: Rt'move: Na'wide Hali.SA Hali.nsa: H&Nindex : mom :DelusIdx

When?: 18th? - 28th ? : Next mo.on 8th?

2009

J. : : 213,570 : 150,501 159,818 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6%

F : : 216,163 : 147,746 160,327 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW

M : : 218,081 : 150,946 157,326 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6%

A : : 222,077 : 151,861 154,716 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7%

M : : 227,441 : 154,016 158,565 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5%

J. : : 226,436 : 156,442 157,713 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7%

Jl : : 227,864 : 158,871 159,623 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6%

A : : 222,762 : 160,224 160,973 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3%

S : : 223,996 : 161,816 163,533 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1%

O : : 230,184 : 162,038 165,528 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM HIGH

N : : 226,440 : 162,764 167,664 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9%

D : : 221,463 : 162,103 169,042 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5%

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 163,481 169,777 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH

F : : 229,398 : 161,320 166,857 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2%

M : : 229,614 : 164,519 168,521 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2%

A : : 235,512 : 167,802 168,202 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH

M : : 237,134 : 169,162 167,570 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%

J. : : 237,767 : 170,111 166,203 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 169,347 167,425 16X, - - -: £16X,- - -:

A : : 232,241 :

mom: -1.73%: -0.45% : +0.74% :

- Thanks to another website that I frequent

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Actually, I'm surprised that the report seems so "balanced". Talks of 2010 being flat as a whole from RM, who'd have thought? :)

Edited by Henrik

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Over the weekend in Birmingham I saw something that I haven't seen since the 1990s house price crash - house for sale with Estate Agents For Sale sign in front garden. However, in one of the front windows of the house was a home made poster with 'Vendor will Gift a 5% Deposit to Buyer'. Some whiffs of desperation and fear in the air up here. It was good to see as others will see it which will add to the change of feel to the property market - i.e,. its really difficult to sell.

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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