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maxdiver

Buy Now While Stocks Are Low

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Unfortunatley no link - but I do have a cup of coffee alongside my paper.

Jist of the story - Government Bonds are now yielding less than Company Dividends.

Buy Buy Buy stocks as this is the first time in 50 years it has been the case!

Am I right in being suspicious - prices reflect current values - and high yields indicate that the future is not so bright. Expect corporate profits to collapse (and with them dividends) in the next few years?

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The man who broke the Bank of England told "DC" that he would be wise to devalue the £ by 20-30% without delay.................

The "QE" is almost gone

Nothing has got better

The mass layoffs are coming

Northsea Oil & Gas falling off

Imports of oil & gas are going up (We became a net importer 2005)

The Fraud that is the "City" is almost finished

................& all MERV has is a printing press.

Mike

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Corporations are more solvent than governments (except the banks).

Corporations have paid down debt, streamlined, cut costs.

I would rather own real enterprises like johnson and johnson, glaxosmithkline, unilever, tesco, yielding 3-7% etc than any fiat promise to pay from a government.

Contrary to popular delusions on this site, corporations (with the exception of the busted banks) will continue to sell to you and me daily products through good or bad times.

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The man who broke the Bank of England told "DC" that he would be wise to devalue the £ by 20-30% without delay.................

The "QE" is almost gone

Nothing has got better

The mass layoffs are coming

Northsea Oil & Gas falling off

Imports of oil & gas are going up (We became a net importer 2005)

The Fraud that is the "City" is almost finished

................& all MERV has is a printing press.

Mike

But surely for UK equities:

a ) falling pound will increase prices and dividends in GBP

b ) a great proportion of corporate profits are from non-GBP operations - e.g. KAZ / RDSB / DGE / AAL / GSK etc...

c ) Shell/BP/BG/ESSAR combined easily produce twice what the UK does in terms of Barrels of Oil (Eq.) and their production profiles are if anything increasing not declining like the UKCS.

The FTSE is not a great indicator of how well the British economy is doing.

Stock markets reflect corporations - not the zombie UK economy.

Edited by maxdiver

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Corporations are more solvent than governments (except the banks).

Corporations have paid down debt, streamlined, cut costs.

I would rather own real enterprises like johnson and johnson, glaxosmithkline, unilever, tesco, yielding 3-7% etc than any fiat promise to pay from a government.

Contrary to popular delusions on this site, corporations (with the exception of the busted banks) will continue to sell to you and me daily products through good or bad times.

purchased with what?......debt vouchers?.......the markets will colapse.

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Corporations are more solvent than governments (except the banks).

Corporations have paid down debt, streamlined, cut costs.

I would rather own real enterprises like johnson and johnson, glaxosmithkline, unilever, tesco, yielding 3-7% etc than any fiat promise to pay from a government.

Contrary to popular delusions on this site, corporations (with the exception of the busted banks) will continue to sell to you and me daily products through good or bad times.

Stocks have disconnected with the underlying companies. The flash crash and the theft of companies by the government proves this. It may say J&J on the cover but inside is a cesspool of wall street / city of London thieves. Stocks are now pieces of paper changing hands between speculators.

Corporates officers and bankers know this. That is why about 10 years ago they opted for cash bonuses instead of stock options.

Stocks are for suckers.

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The FTSE is not a great indicator of how well the British economy is doing.

Stock markets reflect corporations - not the zombie UK economy.

You are wasting your time trying to teach this to 95% of this site.

The FTSE100 is a reflection of global trade, which again contrary to popular delusions on this site is doing rather well, albeit from a low base.

Within the 100 there is trash (banks, retail, travel cyclicals). However there is some decent value in the defensives - pharma, utilities, oil/gas, telecoms, food retailers.

On fair P/Es of 8-11 and yielding 3-7%.

Edited by ringledman

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But surely for UK equities:

a ) falling pound will increase prices and dividends in GBP

b ) a great proportion of corporate profits are from non-GBP operations - e.g. KAZ / RDSB / DGE / AAL / GSK etc...

c ) Shell/BP/BG/ESSAR combined easily produce twice what the UK does in terms of Barrels of Oil (Eq.) and their production profiles are if anything increasing not declining like the UKCS.

The FTSE is not a great indicator of how well the British economy is doing.

Stock markets reflect corporations - not the zombie UK economy.

You would think so, but why has the nikkei done so crap (ie down from 40k) despite massive exports over the last 20 years.

Our companies will surely be held back by pension obligations and so forth.

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Our companies will surely be held back by pension obligations and so forth.

That I agree with - some companies e.g. BT and BA are crippled with their pension obligations.

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Unfortunatley no link - but I do have a cup of coffee alongside my paper.

Jist of the story - Government Bonds are now yielding less than Company Dividends.

Buy Buy Buy stocks as this is the first time in 50 years it has been the case!

Am I right in being suspicious - prices reflect current values - and high yields indicate that the future is not so bright. Expect corporate profits to collapse (and with them dividends) in the next few years?

Your right to be suspicious - spent a few hours yesterday looking into wether it was worth getting back into stocks - conclusions as follows;

1) Looked at various sectors in the footsie 100 and various stocks - there yeilds are ridiculously small

2) NS and I give a better, risk free, tax free, return on a ISA than all stocks i looked at

3) Even the NS and I direct saver is better risk free investment than the various stocks (based on risk free)

4) Looked at the inverse relationship of interest rates to stocks - going back to 1974, its been since the high of 17% interest rates in the uk that we have seen the various bubbles in stocks.

5) Now interst rates can only go up (which they will as we see inflation and currency crisis start), stocks HAVE to move lower so there yeild is in line with current interest rates.

6) There is nothing I can beat inflation with (no bonds etc now NS and I pulled there model.)

7) Any base rate rise and stocks will fll in line

So the one thing I cant pretect against is inflation, but thats the better option than buying a stock and it collapsing either through a rights issue (been a few latly (one was in energy sector), or it collapsing (moving lower) through base rate rises.

Cash is King

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Contrary to popular delusions on this site.......

You are wasting your time trying to teach this to 95% of this site.....

Why do you continue to post here if you have such a low opinion of the majority of the members?

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Guest notrealhoudini

Unfortunatley no link - but I do have a cup of coffee alongside my paper.

Jist of the story - Government Bonds are now yielding less than Company Dividends.

Buy Buy Buy stocks as this is the first time in 50 years it has been the case!

Am I right in being suspicious - prices reflect current values - and high yields indicate that the future is not so bright. Expect corporate profits to collapse (and with them dividends) in the next few years?

That's not right !

Both are both overpriced, because rates are now at artificially low levels

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Your right to be suspicious - spent a few hours yesterday looking into wether it was worth getting back into stocks - conclusions as follows;

1) Looked at various sectors in the footsie 100 and various stocks - there yeilds are ridiculously small

2) NS and I give a better, risk free, tax free, return on a ISA than all stocks i looked at

3) Even the NS and I direct saver is better risk free investment than the various stocks (based on risk free)

4) Looked at the inverse relationship of interest rates to stocks - going back to 1974, its been since the high of 17% interest rates in the uk that we have seen the various bubbles in stocks.

5) Now interst rates can only go up (which they will as we see inflation and currency crisis start), stocks HAVE to move lower so there yeild is in line with current interest rates.

6) There is nothing I can beat inflation with (no bonds etc now NS and I pulled there model.)

7) Any base rate rise and stocks will fll in line

So the one thing I cant pretect against is inflation, but thats the better option than buying a stock and it collapsing either through a rights issue (been a few latly (one was in energy sector), or it collapsing (moving lower) through base rate rises.

Cash is King

I'm thinking that you can't easily beat inflation - unless you own shares in the Royal Mint.

However, I think it's a better idea to shift money to the emerging economies.

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I'm thinking that you can't easily beat inflation - unless you own shares in the Royal Mint.

However, I think it's a better idea to shift money to the emerging economies.

I looked at gold stocks, RIO et al, but there yields are small, and if gold collapses (which I think it has a chance of doing - bearing in kind everyone is bullish (shoe shine boy syndrome)) these stocks will tank.

FOr me there is just no safety, so im waiting for interest rates to rise - which i think they will, and inversly effect everything else.

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2) NS and I give a better, risk free, tax free, return on a ISA than all stocks i looked at

3) Even the NS and I direct saver is better risk free investment than the various stocks (based on risk free)

Even NS&I isn't "risk free".

No investment is.

That's why you get paid interest. It's a reward for the risk you put you money in. The greater the risk, the greater the reward. If it was truly "risk free" you would have to pay THEM a fee to cover their costs for looking after it.

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Your right to be suspicious - spent a few hours yesterday looking into wether it was worth getting back into stocks - conclusions as follows;

1) Looked at various sectors in the footsie 100 and various stocks - there yeilds are ridiculously small

2) NS and I give a better, risk free, tax free, return on a ISA than all stocks i looked at

3) Even the NS and I direct saver is better risk free investment than the various stocks (based on risk free)

4) Looked at the inverse relationship of interest rates to stocks - going back to 1974, its been since the high of 17% interest rates in the uk that we have seen the various bubbles in stocks.

5) Now interst rates can only go up (which they will as we see inflation and currency crisis start), stocks HAVE to move lower so there yeild is in line with current interest rates.

6) There is nothing I can beat inflation with (no bonds etc now NS and I pulled there model.)

7) Any base rate rise and stocks will fll in line

So the one thing I cant pretect against is inflation, but thats the better option than buying a stock and it collapsing either through a rights issue (been a few latly (one was in energy sector), or it collapsing (moving lower) through base rate rises.

Cash is King

I agree with all of this except point 4 - because I do not understand what you mean? Can you explain it in numpty language please?

At the moment, as far as I can make out, you have to take substantial risk in either shares or commodities such as oil, gold, copper, etc, to keep losing out to inflation via cash. But, IMPO, the risks are just too much at the moment as I think all of the above are just too volatile.

Shares, in particular, just scream out to me as being a rigged market via the likes of the Fed, the Giant Squid and others who are not only better 'protected' than Joe Public... but who actually make fat fees in commission no matter what happens.

In simple terms, I buy a share hoping to make money from it rising or from the dividend... or from both... but the likes of the Giant Squid do all these complicated long and short covering positions that, as much as I try to understand them - I am a clever dude, I am unable to fully get the grasp of.

It seems to me that the 'big boys' can rig the markets so they make money on the rise and then they are capable of causing a crash, losing the life savings of Joe Public, as and when they wish... and profiting from it.

I am also very suspicious about claims that buyers' volumes are low but seller volumes are high - don't fully understand what this means either - which is somehow resulting in a climbing DOW and FTSE. I assume it means that there is a smaller and smaller group of buyers buying up the stocks which, if true, just screams a rigged market.

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You are wasting your time trying to teach this to 95% of this site.

The FTSE100 is a reflection of global trade, which again contrary to popular delusions on this site is doing rather well, albeit from a low base.

Within the 100 there is trash (banks, retail, travel cyclicals). However there is some decent value in the defensives - pharma, utilities, oil/gas, telecoms, food retailers.

On fair P/Es of 8-11 and yielding 3-7%.

My opinion also.

I also dislike the lazy assumption that the US stock market can be taken as being representative of all of them when the graphs are wheeled out. A very different and bubble-prone beast IMO.

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Corporations are more solvent than governments (except the banks).

Corporations have paid down debt, streamlined, cut costs.

I would rather own real enterprises like johnson and johnson, glaxosmithkline, unilever, tesco, yielding 3-7% etc than any fiat promise to pay from a government.

Contrary to popular delusions on this site, corporations (with the exception of the busted banks) will continue to sell to you and me daily products through good or bad times.

So why are you posting on here trying to convince people of the merits of your trade rather than just filling your boots with equities.

The arguments about the respective merits of stock and bonds is as old as the markets.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/stocks-vs-bonds-2/

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203880104575419343943747982.html

Of course when you get a Depression as in the 1930s you can get bonds and stock values imploding together so both trades can be losers

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Corporations are more solvent than governments (except the banks).

Corporations have paid down debt, streamlined, cut costs.

I would rather own real enterprises like johnson and johnson, glaxosmithkline, unilever, tesco, yielding 3-7% etc than any fiat promise to pay from a government.

Contrary to popular delusions on this site, corporations (with the exception of the busted banks) will continue to sell to you and me daily products through good or bad times.

Yes I have done very well with Glaxosmithkline over the last few years . Their dividend was 0.74 pence per share last year , and at one point you could buy a share for £10 , they rise and fall anywhere between about £10 and £13 , so you can also make if you buy and sell at the right time . If however you buy and they drop so you have to keep them the dividend is far more than you will get in any bank.

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The man who broke the Bank of England told "DC" that he would be wise to devalue the £ by 20-30% without delay.................

The "QE" is almost gone

Nothing has got better

The mass layoffs are coming

Northsea Oil & Gas falling off

Imports of oil & gas are going up (We became a net importer 2005)

The Fraud that is the "City" is almost finished

................& all MERV has is a printing press.

Mike

The big problem is that some non resource based western currencies are weak and competing against each other to devalue. If you compare Euro, USD and £ to the AUD over the last 2 years you will what I mean.

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Yes I have done very well with Glaxosmithkline over the last few years . Their dividend was 0.74 pence per share last year , and at one point you could buy a share for £10 , they rise and fall anywhere between about £10 and £13 , so you can also make if you buy and sell at the right time . If however you buy and they drop so you have to keep them the dividend is far more than you will get in any bank.

Yeah based on last years results there yeild is 4.98% (before tax) - problem is, they havent announced any dividends for two quarters!!, so inflation is already beating that holding!

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You would think so, but why has the nikkei done so crap (ie down from 40k) despite massive exports over the last 20 years.

Our companies will surely be held back by pension obligations and so forth.

The Nikkei hasn't dropped much in pound/dollar terms - only in yen terms.

The yen back then was worth 600 yen to the dollar whereas a dollar now only buys you around 80 yen.

So if you'd bought the Nikkei back when it was 40000 you would only have lost huge amounts if you bought in yen.

Even then your yen that you had left today would have 90% more purchasing power elsewhere in the world.

It's all relative and swings and roundabouts.

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I looked at gold stocks, RIO et al, but there yields are small, and if gold collapses (which I think it has a chance of doing - bearing in kind everyone is bullish (shoe shine boy syndrome)) these stocks will tank.

FOr me there is just no safety, so im waiting for interest rates to rise - which i think they will, and inversly effect everything else.

you are tough to please.

I'm quite happy getting no yield on my gold stocks seeing as they are up 60% since I bought them a year ago (would have been much more if you timed the bottom)

A 5% yield on top of that isn't going to make a huge difference.

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you are tough to please.

I'm quite happy getting no yield on my gold stocks seeing as they are up 60% since I bought them a year ago (would have been much more if you timed the bottom)

A 5% yield on top of that isn't going to make a huge difference.

Is that the Merril Lynch gold fund that I hear so much about?

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Is that the Merril Lynch gold fund that I hear so much about?

No it's black rock gold and general.

All these funds own pretty much the same stocks.

I also have CF Junior Miners which is up 20% since inception. Junior Miners are a risky and highly volatile speculative punt though and the swings on this one have been scary even to a gambling bull like me.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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