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teddyboy

Hpi Data - Can Someone Explain, Please

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I have a plea! - been on this site about 3 weeks. Learnt LOADS, looked at data, absorbed financial projections - but to be honest I aint got a clue what MOST of it means.

I know that Rightmove bases its Av. Price on asking prices and Hometrack on selling prices. So what are we to believe.

If someone can explain the front page of this site.

Financial Times House Price Index

Jul 05 £190,783

Down 0.3%

Hometrack - Monthly National Survey

Aug 05 £161,000

Down 0.1%

Halifax House Price Index

Jul 05 £162,994

Down 0.3%

Land Registry Quarterly Report

Q2 05 £184,924

Up 0.4%

Nationwide House Price Index

Aug 05 £157,310

Down 0.2%

ODPM House Price Index

Jun 05 £184,152

Down 0.8%

Rightmove House Price Index

Aug 05 £196,282

Up 0.2%

Now I know they all use this buzz word of 'Seasonally Adjusted'. So can someone explain why these are SO different, Whats do Seasonally Adjusted' really mean and more importantly why the **** are EA's putting prices up when the selling prices are dropping, or is that why they are raising them, so I looks more of a bargain when you know £20K off the asking price?

The reason why am asking these questions is because of the hometrack data.

Please look below for the so called prices in Liverpool.

dontmakesense.jpg

This is nonsense! If house were this price I would not be campaigning here. WHat are these figures? Why are they saying that these are prices when you could not even get a terraced in my area for less than 100K?

I AM CONFUZZED!!!$%£"^"^

Please help me!!!! :unsure:

post-2719-1125697563_thumb.jpg

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You may know by now that prices rise slightly in summer as more people enter the market, and prices soften in the winter as buyers hold off.

If you want to get a bargain, Jan/Feb is usually the time to buy. The seasonal adjustment is a fudge that these companies apply to smooth out the disrepancies.

A couple of guys on HPC managed to nail down the exact amount, only to find it completely adjusted later.

So essentially it's a mechanism for the mortgage companies to keep telling people that all is well in la-la land, when in fact the bottom has just about fallen out of the market.

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Teddyboy - If you look at the monthly house prices produced by (let’s say) Nationwide you’ll notice that as well as having an underlying trend they also vary seasonally: 1.5-2% DOWN in Jan, Feb, and 1-1.5% UP in June, July, and so on. It turns out that the seasonal variation repeats fairly consistently year to year, and so by averaging each month individually over several years’ worth of data you can work out the seasonal variation for each month. Once you know the variations, they can be removed from the data to get at the underlying trend – i.e. the seasonally adjusted or SA figures. The idea is that it’s supposed to be easier to see a change in the trend if it’s not buried in seasonal changes.

Edit: the reasons for them changing slightly from time to time is technical - it's down to moving average windows, and reusing the previous SAs provisionally until you have a proper window to recalculate and fix them. The headline reports are based on the provisional SAs, and are corrected later in the archive.

Edited by spline

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So - Homestrack that bases its data on actually sold prices is the only one showing a downward turn, becuase in reality there is a downward turn in the selling prices. Are the rest of the figures 'botched' to try and make it look more promising?

The other thing is - that 0.3% fall from hometrack. Is that 0.3% fall on their INDEX or on the actual selling price of an average home?

Also can someone please explain the attachment in #1. The prices seem so low to reality?

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So - Homestrack that bases its data on actually sold prices is the only one showing a downward turn, becuase in reality there is a downward turn in the selling prices. Are the rest of the figures 'botched' to try and make it look more promising?

The other thing is - that 0.3% fall from hometrack. Is that 0.3% fall on their INDEX or on the actual selling price of an average home?

Also can someone please explain the attachment in #1. The prices seem so low to reality?

Ok matey... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3132863.stm

That will explain how the surveys gather data (if you believe the BBC). There are more detailed descriptions on how the data is gathered on some webpage somewhere - but I cannot find it...

Oh, and Hometrack is based on Asking Prices!

Edited by Jason

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Particularly clever is using the SA to tell people just after Xmas that prices have risen SA to kick off the year and get them buying, and then the subsequent rise in prices resulting from the buying activity, when SA corrected, justifies the initial announcement made before anything had happened! :lol:

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Q:WHAT IS SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT?

A:WHATEVER THE VI'S WANT IT TO BE.

...well ok within bounds,the warchest is running out fast and there is a definite change in the media concerning HP's,and this is entirely predictable.

......are you ready for the next bubble?

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Teddyboy - If you look at the monthly house prices produced by (let’s say) Nationwide you’ll notice that as well as having an underlying trend they also vary seasonally: 1.5-2% DOWN in Jan, Feb, and 1-1.5% UP in June, July, and so on.

by that reckoning we are in for one hell of a drop after september!!!!

...if aug prices fall by 0.2%(subtract SA of 1.5%)

that means a drop of 1.7%.pcm.

.OUCH.

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Nationwide SA (from Aug 2005 report)

SA = NSA + Adj, corrected NSA->SA up in Jan, down in Jul

Month S Adj %

----- -------

Jan +1.72

Feb +1.41

Mar +0.52

Apr -0.29

May -0.67

Jun -1.21

Jul -1.36

Aug -0.89

Sep -0.59

Oct +0.36

Nov +0.33

Dec +0.72

Edited by spline

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Do the Nationwide and Halifax indexes include valuations from all mortgage approvals, or just ones that result in a sale?

The reason I ask is that a local friend has just MEW'ed to buy a car. The valuer looked at his house from the front (i.e. never went in) and valued it at £370k. The highest prices for the almost identical houses in the same street in the past 12 months are for £330k, £335k and £350k (from LR data). All indications are that prices have dropped since those sales.

Could this be a source of "artificial" inflation?

T&T

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Do the Nationwide and Halifax indexes include valuations from all mortgage approvals, or just ones that result in a sale?

The reason I ask is that a local friend has just MEW'ed to buy a car. The valuer looked at his house from the front (i.e. never went in) and valued it at £370k. The highest prices for the almost identical houses in the same street in the past 12 months are for £330k, £335k and £350k (from LR data). All indications are that prices have dropped since those sales.

Could this be a source of "artificial" inflation?

  T&T

They supposedly only include agreed sales. (if you believe that).

Although, I think Haliwide take the valuation of the house, i.e. when the bank sees if its worth lending on, when its sold. Maybe?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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