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North And West Face A House Price Double Dip

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The increases in the housing market in London and the south east have not travelled far. Julian Knight reports

A double dip in house prices is being predicted by some experts for large parts of the North and West of the UK as the limited market recovery over the past year comes to a halt.

The news came in the same week as the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said a survey of its members revealed the first recorded fall in average UK house prices in more than a year. Ian Perry, a RICS spokesman, said that this reflected "both the increase in supply following the scrapping of home information packs and the more cautious stance from buyers". Mr Perry said he expected the downward trend to continue at least for the next few months as fears over an economic slowdown grow.

However, the RICS survey is only a snapshot of the market, testing the positive or negative sentiment of members across the UK. Yet the housing market is never uniform. Even in a boom you have some towns or even just roads where prices are stagnant or falling. On the flip side, in a crash you will have areas where prices hold up. In the same way as all politics is supposed to be local, so are house prices.

"It makes me laugh that so much store is put by these national surveys when you can get massive price differentials not just between regions, or parts of a town but simply different sides of the street," said Trevor Kent, a former head of the National Association of Estate Agents and managing director of Trevor Kent & Co. "Take the past year or so, for instance. Some areas have done well: London and the south east, for instance, and some desirable parts of the North such as Cheshire. But ask homeowners in other parts and they will be bemused by talk of a recovery because there hasn't been one."

In fact, the past year has seen a marked widening in the north-south divide after a few years of more even price growth.

"Prior to the credit crunch, in simple terms, we had the north catching up with the south. Liverpool, Newcastle, Leeds and Manchester all saw their own booms. This spread to parts of Wales and Northern Ireland. What we have now in more straitened times is a cruder economic reality biting," said James Moss, the managing director of Curzon Property Investment. "The prime London market has been underpinned by foreign buyers taking advantage of sterling's depreciation – which has effected a 30 per cent price cut for these buyers – coupled with the capital's status as an international business centre, and undersupply has kept the market there and in parts of the south east ticking along nicely." Outside of this economic goldilocks zone it's a different story, according to Mr Moss.

"The economic drivers are not the same," he said. "Take the Midlands and Wales, for instance. They rely a lot on public sector employment and that is going to be cut. What's more, many of the homeowners in these parts who bought at the end of the boom are still in negative equity or close to it because they haven't seen a bounce back in the past year."

Full article at below link:

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgages/north-and-west-face-a-house-price-double-dip-2052840.html

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at the bargaining stage again then: "just let the north and west fall and let my london house price stay the same - please God?"

Denial

Anger (blame bankers, labour, conservative, whoever)

Bargaining

Depression

Acceptance

Edited by Si1

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at the bargaining stage again then: "just let the north and west fall and let my london house price stay the same - please God?"

Denial

Anger (blame bankers, labour, conservative, whoever)

Bargaining

Depression

Acceptance

Your forgot the step between depression and acceptance...VIOLENCE!

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Your forgot the step between depression and acceptance...VIOLENCE!

woo hoo! I'll make sure I have some popcorn in then.

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at the bargaining stage again then: "just let the north and west fall and let my london house price stay the same - please God?"

Denial

Anger (blame bankers, labour, conservative, whoever)

Bargaining

Depression

Acceptance

That is a very interesting list.

I've seen it before, but I keep forgetting it. It makes sense.

Though perhaps more on a personal level than on a societal level? I mean, OK, we can talk about averages, but there will always be people all over the place, in different stages. (And maybe even a majority completely oblivious of all things real, watching "Come Sing With Me - On Ice!"...) :P

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According to some economist on the radio today, London relies more on public expenditure than Wales, Scotland and most other parts of the UK. So, if public expenditure is going to be drastically cut, then surely London/South East will suffer too?

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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