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That's It- Sheeple Herded Into Speculation

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http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/193097

express cover.jpg

This front page has made my mind up, and anyone wanting a crash (me included)is going to be very disappointed.

The sheeple will over the next few months realise that their money is shrinking in value in real terms ,due to negative real interest rates,and any return above inflation is to be grabbed. Therefore any house offering 4% net will be bought if finance can be arranged.

Houses won't go up but not down either :(

Stocks and commodities will go ballistic if more QE is announced.

The CRACK UP BOOM is here!

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Houses will fall as EVERYTHING else rocketts in price, wages will not follow up @ anthing like as fast. Factor in unemployment + oil shock prices & houses are the one thing that WILL fall BIG time.

We see it by Xmas.

Mike

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Last week house prices were set to SOAR, so go and buy one now. The Daily Express is the fountain of all knowledge and has never been wrong, ever.

The Express is what it is- but they are not wrong about the fact that if you keep your money in a bank account it is shrinking in real terms.

My point is that The Express now has this fact on its front cover and alot of sheeple will get stampeded into speculating with their savings with their "nothing safer than bricks and mortar" mentality. The only thing that may quell this a little is the lack of finance from the banks.

That's why I don't think they will go up--but maybe not down either. <_<

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The Express is what it is- but they are not wrong about the fact that if you keep your money in a bank account it is shrinking in real terms.

My point is that The Express now has this fact on its front cover and alot of sheeple will get stampeded into speculating with their savings with their "nothing safer than bricks and mortar" mentality. The only thing that may quell this a little is the lack of finance from the banks.

That's why I don't think they will go up--but maybe not down either. <_<

What, you think any Express readers didn't already think this?

The unintended (I'm sure) consequence of this headline however is that it is just pilling more pressure on the BofE to increase base rates...

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Houses will fall as EVERYTHING else rocketts in price, wages will not follow up @ anthing like as fast. Factor in unemployment + oil shock prices & houses are the one thing that WILL fall BIG time.

We see it by Xmas.

Mike

Think about it- with ten year yields at 3% and inflation at 3% why wouldn't you buy property yielding 7%(4%net). Its the rational thing to do if your only means of saving is bank accounts or property as much of the general public do.

Its only going to get worse if more QE is announced and inflation rises further.

Mods please merge-Ta

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Not sure what this will cause other than people starting to get pissed off they are seeing no return on their money. It may be a good thing as people may start asking questions about why they are getting screwed over so much.

Best of luck to them if they decide to invest in property :lol:

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All asset classes have their time in the sun.

Bonds have had a 30 year secular bull run. This is set to now end as the sheeple piled in in 2008-09.

Cash will be trash now that central banks have decided to run negative interest rates for the next decade to re-fund the banking sector.

Commodities are 1/2 way through their typical secular bull market that started in 2000. These last 15-25 years typically then a new bear market of 20 odd years follows.

Equities are 2/3 of the way through their typical bear market that started in 2000 and last 14-18 odd years. Good value in certain defensive high yielding sectors now.

Property, clearly overvalued will be propped up nominally to a large extent in the next decade of negative interest rates. In real terms will crash but it will be a 5-10 years before very cheap property is available in the UK (i.e. very high yielding v the historical norm).

The sheeple are still in fixed income. The blow out stage where joe public piled in is about to end.

To determine the future course as 'cash and bonds - good/safe' and ignoring the SECULAR cycles that all asset classes undergo is dangerous to one's wealth.

Edited by ringledman

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http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/193097

express cover.jpg

This front page has made my mind up, and anyone wanting a crash (me included)is going to be very disappointed.

The sheeple will over the next few months realise that their money is shrinking in value in real terms ,due to negative real interest rates,and any return above inflation is to be grabbed. Therefore any house offering 4% net will be bought if finance can be arranged.

Houses won't go up but not down either :(

Stocks and commodities will go ballistic if more QE is announced.

The CRACK UP BOOM is here!

Is been like this for well over a year. What's new? We've had all the crack up boom in housing that we will get. All those with cash wanting alternative investments have done so already. Hence the last 12 month rally.

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http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/193097

express cover.jpg

This front page has made my mind up, and anyone wanting a crash (me included)is going to be very disappointed.

The sheeple will over the next few months realise that their money is shrinking in value in real terms ,due to negative real interest rates,and any return above inflation is to be grabbed. Therefore any house offering 4% net will be bought if finance can be arranged.

Houses won't go up but not down either :(

Stocks and commodities will go ballistic if more QE is announced.

The CRACK UP BOOM is here!

How much money do the "sheeple" have?

I have emboldened the most pertinent part of the nonsense you have written.

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Think about it- with ten year yields at 3% and inflation at 3% why wouldn't you buy property yielding 7%(4%net). Its the rational thing to do if your only means of saving is bank accounts or property as much of the general public do.

Its only going to get worse if more QE is announced and inflation rises further.

Mods please merge-Ta

because it carries a h*ll of a lotta risk and hassle?

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Houses will fall as EVERYTHING else rocketts in price, wages will not follow up @ anthing like as fast. Factor in unemployment + oil shock prices & houses are the one thing that WILL fall BIG time.

We see it by Xmas.

Mike

Either houses will fall, or money will fall. Take your pick...do you feel lucky?

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Better to be in cash than houses.. Everyones been clambering to get out out of speculative property acquisitions.

Unless you are an investor with a 20 year perspective you wont buy into a falling market.

If you are there are over 900,000 properties already on the market for you to choose from before the govt rips the guts out of the economy in October.

There wont be 900,000 cash rich buyers.

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Or we'll get a Japanese style carry trade. I know im not the only one on here who has thought of, and indeed has to some extent put savings into other currencies.

Admittedly, unlike the thrifty Japanese housewife, the British single mother wont lend whatever she has spare to folks on the other side of the world, but spend it on shoes and spa treatments.

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Houses bought with BORROWED money...............not bought with savings!

QE = RATES....Even that Commie MERV can stop rates going up

The Sheep can only afford what they are allowed to be lent....

Mike

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Think about it- with ten year yields at 3% and inflation at 3% why wouldn't you buy property yielding 7%(4%net). Its the rational thing to do if your only means of saving is bank accounts or property as much of the general public do.

Houses don't yield 7%. You wouldn't do it because it is better to invest the money and wait for the crash. Depending on how much risk you want to tolerate, you have a choice of foreign currencies and inflation-linked instruments. None of them are perfect, but my opinion is that they will easily outperform British houses.

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Houses don't yield 7%. You wouldn't do it because it is better to invest the money and wait for the crash. Depending on how much risk you want to tolerate, you have a choice of foreign currencies and inflation-linked instruments. None of them are perfect, but my opinion is that they will easily outperform British houses.

Most don't, some do and as prices decline if inflation remains high then houses will again be better than other investments. It pains me to have come to this conclusion but people will be looking for any opportunity to preserve wealth. If not property or land then what else? The only other hard assets are pm's and stocks.Perhaps these will do better since they are not bought with leverage?

The OP qualifies for most stupid post of the week.

Why, what's your reasoning? or do you just not like anyone who has a different view from you.

Considering what has happened over the last two years, anything could happen next.

Did any of us actually think Broon could stop an all out crash by lowering rates and QE? I didn't and from what I can see now the only way out for them is inflation and they need the sheeple on their side to get money velocity moving.

The only way to do that is to scare them out of savings and get the banks lending.

I don't pretend to know how they will do the latter, but if there is another bout of deflation the stage will be set for the politicians to use laws to impel the banks to lend. If they don't they'll go bust in any case as there assets dwindle, therefore

THEY HAVE NO FECKING CHOICE!

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Most don't, some do and as prices decline if inflation remains high then houses will again be better than other investments.

b*llocks

the marginal yield would need to counter-act the momentum of ongoing price falls. not going to happen. it will undershoot, they always do

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Either houses will fall, or money will fall. Take your pick...do you feel lucky?

Thats why gold trumps all. The argument for gold was logical years ago and now being proved correct 100%. Silver is the best option now IMO.

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b*llocks

the marginal yield would need to counter-act the momentum of ongoing price falls. not going to happen. it will undershoot, they always do

If nominal prices remain stable/rise due to inflation then the marginal yield is irrelevant assuming the inflation rate is higher.

There are price reductions now yes but inflation is picking up fast and could derail the crash.

A few well respected people seem to think similarly:

http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/7005

TER: We no longer really have the option of expanding the debt and it's doubtful that even short-term stimulus will have much impact. Looking at this next leg down against that backdrop, what projections would you make about unemployment, housing prices, GDP as we look through the end of 2010 and into '11?

JW: Unemployment will be a lot worse than most people expect. Housing will continue to suffer in terms of weak demand. But in this crazy, almost perverse circumstance, the renewed weakness to a large extent will help push us into higher inflation. Real estate tends to do better with higher inflation, but it's not going to be a happy circumstance for anyone.

The government is effectively bankrupt. Using GAAP accounting principles, the annual deficit is running in the range of $4 trillion to $5 trillion. That's beyond containment. The government can't cover it with taxes. They'd still be in deficit if they took 100% of personal income and corporate profits. They'd also still be in deficit if they cut every penny of government spending except for Social Security and Medicare. Washington lacks the will to slash its social programs severely, to change its approach to ever bigger government. The only option left going forward is for the government eventually to print the money for the obligations it cannot otherwise cover, which sets up a hyperinflation.

All of what I just described was already in place when the systemic solvency crisis broke. Before this crisis the government was effectively bankrupt. In response to the crisis, the government may have gone beyond what it had to do, but you err on the side of conservatism when you're trying to prevent a systemic collapse. That was a real risk. It still is. Irrespective of the politics of big government spending, quantitative easing, renewed bailing out of banks, whatever is involved, I'd argue that the government still will do whatever it takes to prevent a systemic collapse. That last series of actions had the effect of rapidly exploding the deficit. In just a year, we went from something under $500 billion in official reporting, on a cash basis as opposed to GAAP basis, to something close to $1.5 trillion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-10/buffett-shortens-duration-of-bond-portfolio-after-warning-about-inflation.html

Buffett Shortens Bond-Holding Duration After Inflation Warning

By Andrew Frye and Daniel Kruger - Aug 10, 2010 5:01 AM GMT

Berkshire Hataway CEO Warren Buffett shortened the duration of bonds held by Berkshire Hathaway. Photographer: Chris Machian/Bloomberg

Warren Buffett shortened the duration of bonds held by his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. after warning that deficit spending could force inflation higher.

What's normal about this HPC ?

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I've been saying more times than I care to recall that this HPC and recession isn't like 73-75 or 90-92. All comparisons with then are meaningless as we now have a bankrupt financial system and zombie banks. We're all going Japanese and no amount of QE will stave off deflation and consumer deleveraging.

That twit Branson may have agitated for the bailing out of banks but it just ensured a decade long depression. There's only one way out of this mess to 'reset' the economy........War.

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Gold is an idea.

How does gold perform when there's deflation!!?

I'm staggered at how many HPCers see inflation lurking around every 0.nothing rise in the CPI or whatever. The FED have pumped trillions into the system and they're seeing deflation; doesn't this tell you something?

I'm thinking of starting a deflation crash website - seriously.

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Houses will fall as EVERYTHING else rocketts in price, wages will not follow up @ anthing like as fast. Factor in unemployment + oil shock prices & houses are the one thing that WILL fall BIG time.

We see it by Xmas.

Mike

It really is a case of deflation of over leveraged assets and inflation of most other things, notably food. There is no fight between inflation and deflation, just a mixture depending on circumstances. Houses and building plots are such a stupid price in this country because lenders have leant really stupid amounts and LTV's for about 12 years. The balloon which was filled with new printed £hotair is on the way down and could even burst, causing my very own 'plummet.' LOOK AT THE GRAPH OF HOUS PRICES FOR 1989-93 AND YOU WILL SEE THE DEAD CAT BOUNCE IN 1990-91 FOLLOWED BY A VERY SHARP CURVE DOWNWARDS THEREAFTER. We are on the precipice of that sharp curve - just a few months away.

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  • 142 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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