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As we all know, credit is extremely easy to get these days and becoming a property developer/landlord is still a popular choice for many.

With so much easy credit available will the property market pick up again as soon as prices come down a little more? If prices were to drop 30-40% there would surely be a stampede to buy up everything in site again therefore pushing prices back up.

This would also depend on interest rates remaining pretty low.

Your thoughts please.

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As we all know, credit is extremely easy to get these days and becoming a property developer/landlord is still a popular choice for many.

With so much easy credit available will the property market pick up again as soon as prices come down a little more? If prices were to drop 30-40% there would surely be a stampede to buy up everything in site again therefore pushing prices back up.

This would also depend on interest rates remaining pretty low.

Your thoughts please.

The majority of people wanting to get involved in property have done so, hence this bubble.

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As we all know, credit is extremely easy to get these days and becoming a property developer/landlord is still a popular choice for many.

With so much easy credit available will the property market pick up again as soon as prices come down a little more? If prices were to drop 30-40% there would surely be a stampede to buy up everything in site again therefore pushing prices back up.

This would also depend on interest rates remaining pretty low.

Your thoughts please.

It is an interesting thought.

Perhaps this is why we are seeing stagnation rather than

decrease, because there are still people out there willing to

invest.

However, since BTL and investment make up only, I believe, 10%

of the whole housing market, I have always assumed that the other

90%, the residential owner-occupiers, will dictate price falls.

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House price crashes never see investor leap back in as unfortunately massive inflation in such a localised but expensive area draws the country into recession..

This then causes the prices to drop..

House prices only go up through perception, everyone see this unstoppable huge rise and the massive money involved and expects it to go on for ever. But it stops.. And then heads down and perception of dropping prices cause prices to drop further.

Imagine a big apple on an apple tree, this apple starts to grow and grow while the rest of the tree becomes weaker as the apple sucks the nutrients from the rest of the tree.. The apple grows and grows while the rest of the tree weakens.. Eventually the tree needs its nutrients back as the now huge apple is throttling it.. The tree will die.. But the branch where the apple hangs is too weak to hold the apple and the branch breaks and the juicy apple falls to the floor and rots.

I would like to think that is the worst analogy ever..

But the economy is like nature.. It’s too complex not to have a natural balance and only unnatural occurrences can change it. But for the short term, short term changes can happen before it gets “adjusted”.

Low interest rates made borrowing easier and when multiples got too high to borrow more fraudulent mortgages released that barrier (1/3 of all mortgages taken out now are not verified against income, the lender leaves it to the customer to declare their income.. with no checking)

So artificial low interest rates.. (Since labour got in.. weird that.. nice one Gordon)

(Don't want anyone to save do you Gordon... just borrow.... borrow more..More... more.... Don't stop. The good times can never end.. Borrow millions..)

And Lie to buy Mortgages (borrow more.. see it’s illegal.. we don't care.. we will turn a blind eye.. Please.. Just borrow... borrow.... borrow... more... more.. )(any authority interested in stopping this...? Nah.. thought not)

Meant that well.. Meant that we got ourselves into over £600,000,000,000 more of debt in labours term in government..

Imagine the boom all of this money had to the economy.. All that money spent on houses.. Cars.. Holidays.. Clothes... fast women.. Slow horses... yippee.. Good times role on for ever... the economy surged.. Everyone was rich..

Well okay.. A few made money.. Most now owe a hugely scary amount..

Now they repaying back the debt.. And the economy is sat there.. Saying.."Where did all that money go??? Help.. You used to spend loads... now you have stopped.. Where did it all go...?

Essentially.. People are now paying back debt.

The high street is suffering badly.. 2/3rds of the economy is the high street and here comes recession...!

Edited by apom

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It is an interesting thought.

Perhaps this is why we are seeing stagnation rather than

decrease, because there are still people out there willing to

invest.

However, since BTL and investment make up only, I believe, 10%

of the whole housing market, I have always assumed that the other

90%, the residential owner-occupiers, will dictate price falls.

I agree that it's up to the majority of us to buy at the right price and not be forced to pay too much. I live in East London/Essex and see lots of Eastern Europeans/Asians wanting to buy property and rent it out to their friends and relatives working over here. They know that they can pay a large chunk of their mortgage off by renting and within 5-10 years will own the house or have a small loan outstanding. It's more of a long term thing for these guys and not about rental yields. They don't seem to be put off by the current high prices and can easily get the mortgage.

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As we all know, credit is extremely easy to get these days and becoming a property developer/landlord is still a popular choice for many.

With so much easy credit available will the property market pick up again as soon as prices come down a little more? If prices were to drop 30-40% there would surely be a stampede to buy up everything in site again therefore pushing prices back up.

This would also depend on interest rates remaining pretty low.

Your thoughts please.

Setting the equilibrium in favour of business is one factor I fear.

If Blair can pull off a price correction we may well be in the era of the landlords.

FTB priced out, or take on outrageous debt.

More importantly the economy is not healthy, and that is the most important factor

unrealistic prices cannot be sustained under these conditions.

A 30-40% drop will go hand in hand with recession / depression.

The climate will be different to what it is today.

Anyone with money and sense will do their utmost to protect it, not speculate on investments.

Last time in the 90’s property lost a lot of financial confidence.

True interest rates were high 12% average.

But it wasn’t the interest rate that stopped people buying property, it was the amount of

debt that had to be paid back, pushing people into arrears and repossessions.

Although interest rates are low by comparison now, we are seeing the same pattern emerging

people are struggling to pay their bills at a historically low interest rate.

All is not well.

The four riders of the house price apocalypse are in sight

(Debt, Mortgage arrears, Negative equity, Repossession.)

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Setting the equilibrium in favour of business is one factor I fear.

If Blair can pull off a price correction we may well be in the era of the landlords.

FTB priced out, or take on outrageous debt.

More importantly the economy is not healthy, and that is the most important factor

unrealistic prices cannot be sustained under these conditions.

A 30-40% drop will go hand in hand with recession / depression.

The climate will be different to what it is today.

Anyone with money and sense will do their utmost to protect it, not speculate on investments.

Last time in the 90’s property lost a lot of financial confidence.

True interest rates were high 12% average.

But it wasn’t the interest rate that stopped people buying property, it was the amount of

debt that had to be paid back, pushing people into arrears and repossessions.

Although interest rates are low by comparison now, we are seeing the same pattern emerging

people are struggling to pay their bills at a historically low interest rate.

All is not well.

The four riders of the house price apocalypse are in sight

(Debt, Mortgage arrears, Negative equity, Repossession.)

measurment show that with debt levels so much higher now that a 6% interest rate would be as big an impact to amny as 13% was in 89

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As we all know, credit is extremely easy to get these days and becoming a property developer/landlord is still a popular choice for many.

With so much easy credit available will the property market pick up again as soon as prices come down a little more? If prices were to drop 30-40% there would surely be a stampede to buy up everything in site again therefore pushing prices back up.

This would also depend on interest rates remaining pretty low.

Your thoughts please.

Indeed, and the dotcom companies were also pretty cheap after the crash, until they finally went bankrupt that is, throw in more good money after bad I say :lol:

If the banks end up nursing bad loans they will be cautious about future lending.

Edited by BuyingBear

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As we all know, credit is extremely easy to get these days and becoming a property developer/landlord is still a popular choice for many.

With so much easy credit available will the property market pick up again as soon as prices come down a little more? If prices were to drop 30-40% there would surely be a stampede to buy up everything in site again therefore pushing prices back up.

This would also depend on interest rates remaining pretty low.

Your thoughts please.

Markets don't work like that.

The last time round people didn't jump back in.

After the the tech stocks collapsed people didn't jump back in after their shares fell 90% in a few months.

Some obviously do, but the sheeple don't.

NDL

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As we all know, credit is extremely easy to get these days and becoming a property developer/landlord is still a popular choice for many.

With so much easy credit available will the property market pick up again as soon as prices come down a little more? If prices were to drop 30-40% there would surely be a stampede to buy up everything in site again therefore pushing prices back up.

This would also depend on interest rates remaining pretty low.

Your thoughts please.

....WELL SURPRISINGLY NOT!

it didn't happen in japan,

it hasn't happened with dotcom.

...there is a real fear of losing all over again in these markets(which is usually the best time to buy in,but very few do)...they will take some time to recover for sure,but recover they will.

with property,if you still have a job,then buy when all around you are trying to sell.it's that simple.

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I agree that it's up to the majority of us to buy at the right price and not be forced to pay too much. I live in East London/Essex and see lots of Eastern Europeans/Asians wanting to buy property and rent it out to their friends and relatives working over here. They know that they can pay a large chunk of their mortgage off by renting and within 5-10 years will own the house or have a small loan outstanding. It's more of a long term thing for these guys and not about rental yields. They don't seem to be put off by the current high prices and can easily get the mortgage.

I've never met an Asian yet who will buy a falling asset. As soon as all the YOY figures turn negative every speculator will look for other investments.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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