OzzMosiz Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 (edited) With Merv and the other 3 voting for a hold on IR's last month, and the other 5 on a drop. I wonder if the 4 for a hold will now vote for a rise, especially considering the new data showing the drop was a dire decision. Will the other 5 vote for a hold or any of them a further drop. This is going to be interesting. Roll on 8th September. Edited September 2, 2005 by OzzMosiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted September 2, 2005 Author Share Posted September 2, 2005 Will Merv and the other 3 vote for a hold, so as not to embarrass the other 5 and save them face? If they do, this would be like the 4 holders voting for a cut last month, but with worse economic evidence! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 Well it has been known to happen before. Cut one month then back up the next. Mon, 05 May 1975 10.00 Mon, 21 Apr 1975 9.75 Mon, 24 Mar 1975 10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluelady Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 With Merv and the other 3 voting for a hold on IR's last month, and the other 5 on a drop. I wonder if the 4 for a hold will now vote for a rise, especially considering the new data showing the drop was a dire decision. Will the other 5 vote for a hold or any of them a further drop.This is going to be interesting. Roll on 8th September. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Why was it a dire decision? It doesn't appear to have had any effect on anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted September 2, 2005 Author Share Posted September 2, 2005 Why was it a dire decision? It doesn't appear to have had any effect on anything.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Inflation? Which is looking likely to be even worse this month! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erd Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 Why was it a dire decision? It doesn't appear to have had any effect on anything.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> It allowed the banks to widen the spread between borrowing and saving, why not give them another chance to do the same on the way up to. I would love to see the voting the 5 boe members for a rise, 4 government for a fall, just to show everyone how 'independent' of the government the decision is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluelady Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 (edited) It allowed the banks to widen the spread between borrowing and saving, why not give them another chance to do the same on the way up to.I would love to see the voting the 5 boe members for a rise, 4 government for a fall, just to show everyone how 'independent' of the government the decision is. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The BoE isn't even faintly interested in savers, its prime objective is allegedly to keep a lid on inflation (which will now get blamed solely on oil prices and be considered out of the bank's control) and its secondary one to keep the economy afloat. Nothing would surprise me less than another cut this month. Edited September 2, 2005 by Bluelady Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vivaldo Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 Apart from me, who else thinks there'll be a 0.25% drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted September 2, 2005 Author Share Posted September 2, 2005 Personally I think they'll hold rates. If they cut rates I will be flabberghasted! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vivaldo Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 Perhaps they'll blame New Orleans and the fact that a spike in oil prices will be deflationary in the long term, or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 (edited) The worrying thing is the 5 who voted for a cut still out number the ones with more sense, therefore rates could still be cut again next month should those 5 vote for a cut again. Edited September 2, 2005 by simon99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 (edited) The BoE isn't even faintly interested in savers, its prime objective is allegedly to keep a lid on inflation (which will now get blamed solely on oil prices and be considered out of the bank's control) and its secondary one to keep the economy afloat. Nothing would surprise me less than another cut this month.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> They are also responsible for financial stability which would include debt, and you could put saving into that section. What is more stable than an individual who saves for that rainy day. The government are concerned that people are not saving for the future and I believe Mervyn also. The BoE have warned that the serious debt bubble could put the UK into recession. So I would think the MPC look at everything. The transcripts of the meetings are never published only edited minutes. I bet they don`t publish the interesting parts of the meetings. Cheap money has gone for a very long time, a hold this month. The worrying thing is the 5 who voted for a cut still out number the ones with more sense, therefore rates could still be cut again next month should those 5 vote for a cut again. I bet when Mervyn and the two Deputies together with Tucker voted for a hold the other five were flabergasted. Edited September 2, 2005 by Charlie The Tramp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted September 2, 2005 Author Share Posted September 2, 2005 The worrying thing is the 5 who voted for a cut still out number the ones with more sense, therefore rates could still be cut again next month should those 5 vote for a cut again.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> One of my points of why I think it'll be one of the most interesting meetings. If those 5 do vote for a cut again and Merv and the other 3 vote for a rise, then the team are not independant at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leodhasach Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 (edited) The psychological factor has to be taken into account - it's been said by someone (Merv?) that the expectation of an interest rate raise or cut has the same effect as the actual rate raise or cut. Given that the markets appear to be so sensitive to such things, what would be the psychological impact of 2 consecutive cuts? Wouldn't this whiff of panic and have city editors using phrases like "stave off a recession" etc etc? Surely the cutters would consider risky to cut this month for that reason alone. Merv votes last, and he voted against the cut last month - he was sending them a message IMO. Edited September 2, 2005 by Leodhasach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Once in a lifetime Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 Last months cut 0.25% was just a political sweetener (Blair feel good) It did sod-all for the economy, and everyone knows it. The rock and a hard place has become narrower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aclwalker Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 (edited) Do they ever put rates up or down by more (or less) than 25 basis points, or whatever they call them? EDIT: typographical error Edited September 2, 2005 by aclwalker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sp1 Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 (edited) I suspect it will stay put till november by which time oil will be really high and petrol, and it will be the cover for rate rises which will be scapegoated for a terrible terrible xmass shopping. Or if xmass is not trible but still poor, then base rate may be held till spring or even lowered another quater for good feel around xmass. In this second senario the spring 06 housing bounce will be seriously -ve, so to provide a scapegoat for that rate will be raised in sring. The rational will be that by that time oil and petrol we be higher still than xmass and US rates should be around 4.0 or 4.25. Just some ideas. Sp1 Yes acwalker at extreem times rates can move by more than 0.25 % a month. check this out. (Though i thinck the data is quaterly the mover from the 70's to 95 illistrate the point) http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ype=post&id=882 Edited September 2, 2005 by sp1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugalista Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 The BoE isn't even faintly interested in savers, its prime objective is allegedly to keep a lid on inflation (which will now get blamed solely on oil prices and be considered out of the bank's control) and its secondary one to keep the economy afloat. Nothing would surprise me less than another cut this month.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> In a sense, keeping a lid on inflation and looking after the interests of savers is the same thing! frugalista Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dames Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 Apart from me, who else thinks there'll be a 0.25% drop.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Not a hope D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FaTB Posted September 2, 2005 Share Posted September 2, 2005 My money is on IR's being held until the end of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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