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Mortgage Lending On The Rise

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10937034

Mortgage lending to home buyers picked up again in June, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) says.

Its figures showed that there were 52,000 new loans granted to home buyers, 19% more than in May and up 14% on the same month a year ago.

The CML said activity was "still on an upward trajectory" and described the rise in June as "significant".

However, the lenders' organisation said it was still cautious about the prospects for the coming months.

"This is now the 12th consecutive month in which lending has been higher than its year-earlier levels," said CML economist Paul Samter.

"But we still expect house purchase activity to be muted in the coming months.

"Both consumer demand and lending capacity remain distinctly difficult to call, especially in the light of the government's austerity measures and their possible impact," he added.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10937034

Mortgage lending to home buyers picked up again in June, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) says.

Its figures showed that there were 52,000 new loans granted to home buyers, 19% more than in May and up 14% on the same month a year ago.

The CML said activity was "still on an upward trajectory" and described the rise in June as "significant".

However, the lenders' organisation said it was still cautious about the prospects for the coming months.

"This is now the 12th consecutive month in which lending has been higher than its year-earlier levels," said CML economist Paul Samter.

"But we still expect house purchase activity to be muted in the coming months.

"Both consumer demand and lending capacity remain distinctly difficult to call, especially in the light of the government's austerity measures and their possible impact," he added.

...does this figure include remortgages...?.... :rolleyes:

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...does this figure include remortgages...?.... :rolleyes:

no. Is for house purchases. I'm surprised at this big rise, doesn't fit with all the other data about a stalling market and the fact that the big lenders face imminent funding issues (BoE SLS scheme, worht 200 bn, is ending next year). Where is the money coming from for these mortgages? Is it simply being funded by interest and capital being paid back on existing mortgages? Savings deposits are shrinking, securitisation is over, the government is withdrawing emergency liquidity measures .. I'm confused.

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no. Is for house purchases. I'm surprised at this big rise, doesn't fit with all the other data about a stalling market and the fact that the big lenders face imminent funding issues (BoE SLS scheme, worht 200 bn, is ending next year). Where is the money coming from for these mortgages? Is it simply being funded by interest and capital being paid back on existing mortgages? Savings deposits are shrinking, securitisation is over, the government is withdrawing emergency liquidity measures .. I'm confused.

How does it compare historically to boe lending panel and mortgage approval figs?

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no. Is for house purchases. I'm surprised at this big rise, doesn't fit with all the other data about a stalling market and the fact that the big lenders face imminent funding issues (BoE SLS scheme, worht 200 bn, is ending next year). Where is the money coming from for these mortgages? Is it simply being funded by interest and capital being paid back on existing mortgages? Savings deposits are shrinking, securitisation is over, the government is withdrawing emergency liquidity measures .. I'm confused.

Its the CML, its June ( ancient history) and its CRACKAJACK!

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10937034

Mortgage lending to home buyers picked up again in June, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) says.

Its figures showed that there were 52,000 new loans granted to home buyers, 19% more than in May and up 14% on the same month a year ago.

The CML said activity was "still on an upward trajectory" and described the rise in June as "significant".

However, the lenders' organisation said it was still cautious about the prospects for the coming months.

"This is now the 12th consecutive month in which lending has been higher than its year-earlier levels," said CML economist Paul Samter.

"But we still expect house purchase activity to be muted in the coming months.

"Both consumer demand and lending capacity remain distinctly difficult to call, especially in the light of the government's austerity measures and their possible impact," he added.

Bizarre - I have just read that remortgaging for June was 20% down on last yr and only 27,000. Me thinks there is the statistical massage parlour at work. Clearly, it is 'history' reported as if the applications were today rather than the previous month(s) when they were actually applied for prior to granting - since prices are definitely falling and that is now gathering pace to include almost everywhere, it is at odds with the current reality.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10937034

Mortgage lending to home buyers picked up again in June, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) says.

Its figures showed that there were 52,000 new loans granted to home buyers, 19% more than in May and up 14% on the same month a year ago.

The CML said activity was "still on an upward trajectory" and described the rise in June as "significant".

However, the lenders' organisation said it was still cautious about the prospects for the coming months.

"This is now the 12th consecutive month in which lending has been higher than its year-earlier levels," said CML economist Paul Samter.

"But we still expect house purchase activity to be muted in the coming months.

"Both consumer demand and lending capacity remain distinctly difficult to call, especially in the light of the government's austerity measures and their possible impact," he added.

...interesting to compare the interpretation from CML with the data notes from the BofE....

Lending to Individuals

June 2010

Within the total, net lending secured on dwellings increased by £0.7 billion (Table A), slightly below the May increase of £0.8 billion and below the previous six-month average of £1.0 billion. The twelve-month growth rate was unchanged from a revised 0.9% for May. The three-month annualised growth rate increased to 0.7%, from 0.5% in May. The number of loan approvals for house purchase (47,643) was lower than the May figure (49,461) and below the previous six-month average (50,036). Approvals for remortgaging (24,949) were lower than in May and also lower than the previous six-month average (26,366), while approvals for other purposes (24,849) were in line with May but below the previous six-month average of 25,069 (Table B).

...for one I don't understand why CML quote a rise to 52,000 new loans while BofE figures are 47,643 and showing down from May..etc etc .....am I looking at the wrong tables...?...seems a different story.... :rolleyes:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/li/2010/jun/index.htm#tables

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10937034

Its figures showed that there were 52,000 new loans granted to home buyers, 19% more than in May and up 14% on the same month a year ago.

I've heard it said that the British housing market is stable at about 70,000 transactions a month (it topped 100,000 in indivudual months during the most frenzied years), so even though these latest figures are up, they're still well down on long term trends. In other words it's still evidence of a subdued market, and evidence that "pent up supply" is probably increasing!

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I'm surprised at this big rise, doesn't fit with all the other data about a stalling market

This data is not seasonally adjusted

The number of people moving house always goes up a lot in June

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the BoE figues are approvals

the CML figures are completions

...ah ...interesting ...who collates the CML figures....CML..?....or are they available from an independent source.... :rolleyes:

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...ah ...interesting ...who collates the CML figures....CML..?....or are they available from an independent source.... :rolleyes:

AFAIK, the CML collects the data itself from its members and it often seems to get revised later. The data is NSA. No idea how reliable it is, I know soem people on here don't trust it one bit

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AFAIK, the CML collects the data itself from its members and it often seems to get revised later. The data is NSA. No idea how reliable it is, I know soem people on here don't trust it one bit

...sort of classic source for the BBC..... :rolleyes:

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...interesting slant from another VI Charcol:

The John Charcol Mortgage Index is published monthly, tracking three important statistics, based on mortgage business written by John Charcol. The index is a leading indicator of trends being based on mortgage applications submitted to lenders, whereas figures reported by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) and the Bank of England (BofE) are based on completions, which typically take place 2-3 months after the mortgage application is submitted.

The three statistics tracked each month are the percentage split:

Between Fixed rates, Capped rates and Tracker/Discount rates*.

Between Purchases and Remortgages.

Of First Time Buyers compared to all Purchasers.

The latest www.charcol.co.uk mortgage index reveals that 6 out of 10 mortgages taken in June 2010 were for purchases.

http://www.charcol.co.uk/knowledge-resources/john-charcol-index/

....if this were true and the BofE and CML were based on completions why are they so different..CML says numbers up ...BofE says numbers down..?

Edited by South Lorne

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....if this were true and the BofE and CML were based on completions why are they so different....?

The figures from the BoE you linked to come from a Table named "Table B - Approvals secured on dwellings". The BoE figures are definitely approvals.

Also, the NSA/SA makes a huge difference.

e.g. the NSA figures for the BoE show an increase from 53K in May to 59K in June. The 47K figure is SA

Edited by oldsport

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The figures from the BoE you linked to come from a Table named "Table B - Approvals secured on dwellings". The BoE figures are definitely approvals.

Also, the NSA/SA makes a huge difference.

e.g. the NSA figures for the BoE show an increase from 53K in May to 59K in June. The 47K figure is SA

...OK ..thanks ...that helps..... :rolleyes:

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Source: CML Research, Bank of England

1. Total gross lending gives the total value of loans secured on dwellings that are newly advanced by institutions in the period. All the figures were sourced from the Bank of England except the estimate for the most current month.

2. The CML estimates of gross lending for the latest month were based on the lending figures provided by a sample of lenders that represent around 80% of the mortgage market. The aggregate of these figures were scaled up to represent the whole market.

CML_Gross.jpg

Yay, go 2010, go go go. Oh! :blink:

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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