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Working Lunch: Bearish With A Silver Lining

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I just watched Working Lunch for 1st Sep. They open the programme with: “The Economy - We bring you the bad news in full”

House prices, consumer spending and oil prices are discussed but they continually refer to a “Silver Lining” and “reasons to be cheerful”

The Nationwide Housing Stats are referred to. On the one hand they say Economists can be selective about which statistics are used, but then they quote only the Nationwide national figures emphasising that the annual rate is still up. The large regional variations are not considered.

I suggest a few emails to them requesting a piece on Housing Stats aimed at educating the public on how these figures are derived.

All in, an interesting programme to watch given its target audience (BBC2 Lunchtime).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/programmes/working_lunch/default.stm

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I watched it last night. (I record it every day and watch the interesting stuff in about 5-10 mins).

They pretty much claimed the stagnation idea, and that they can't see a recession with the current low unemployment figures in the UK, desipt everything else being negative. They claimed the slight increase in the unemployment in the last month of figures is just a blip (time will tell.)

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Yes, I watched it too. The optimism on the economy seemed a little like that coming from the MPC.

I'm not really convinced, feels like a few too many storm clouds gathering if you ask me and I don't really see why the rising unemployment is a blip. If retail sales are down and consumer confidence is self-fulfulling and re-inforcing as suggested, it sounds like the start of a spiral to me.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Programmes like this can only percieve a recession once it is clearly underway. Perhaps it should be re-named "Working Supper" due to this lag?

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Programmes like this can only percieve a recession once it is clearly underway. Perhaps it should be re-named "Working Supper" due to this lag?

Exactly, I worry that economists use too many past figures to predict the future trends. This is why they always get it wrong, the MPC has been wrong on a large proportion of its short term economic forcasts in the last 7 years.

They should take notice of thier own FSA who say

"past performance gives no indication..........."

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I watched it last night. (I record it every day and watch the interesting stuff in about 5-10 mins).

They pretty much claimed the stagnation idea, and that they can't see a recession with the current low unemployment figures in the UK, desipt everything else being negative. They claimed the slight increase in the unemployment in the last month of figures is just a blip (time will tell.)

I remember Lawson saying the same thing.

edit: for all you young 'uns, that's Nigel Lawson, the former chancellor and clever-clogs, not Nigella.

Edited by the_duke_of_hazzard

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I remember Lawson saying the same thing.

edit: for all you young 'uns, that's Nigel Lawson, the former chancellor and clever-clogs, not Nigella.

Nigella is disconcertingly attractive. :unsure:

But then you get the vision of her father. But he's lost loads of weight. Reminds me of that imposter Bungle they had in Rainbow when times were getting bad and the wardrobe department was obviously short of money. They got this new skinny Bungle in. Kids spot that sort of thing straight away.

Anyway, Nigella. Yes, she can cook for me with her eye-flashing and hair adjusting motions any day. Rrrrrrrrr.

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This may come as a bit of a surprise.

THE UK ECONOMY WILL BE FINE.....(just not the bit in the UK!!!)

consumers are screwed!...all the claptrap about HP's coming into line with earnings rises is false,just take a look at the extra in fuel bills....they probably take out as much in monthly rises as an average pay rise.

HP's will need to fall MUCH further to become affordable for most folks.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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