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JMcLane

Average House Price Statistics With No Low End Buyers

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Hi.

Bare with me in my moment of madness please....

Lets say that sales in the medium - top end are the only sales completing and the lower end sales are non existent. At what point will the average uk house price stats be up in the 300-400k? Surely the lack of FTB and low end sales (assumption that is the case) would lead to higher prices rather quickly. Does this explain the recent rises, I am no expert.

So lets say the average house becomes 300K but you thought it was 250K and we have a HPC and your house appears to be worth 50K less but it never really changed price at all..... am I making sense in my thinking or am I stretching it a bit.......

Are we heading into the "no loss house price crash" based on squewed avg stats?

Cheers.

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This is the beauty of average of course, and normally when the number is large enough, the average is close enough to reality.

Don't worry though, no low end sales means no medium end sales and high end sales because UK housing market is a pyramid scheme that

needs FTB to provide equity to the current FTB type home owner to move up the chain. This isn't exactly a market where people save up

to trade up as with other goods (e..g. save up for a bigher car, no one is going to give one an Car Price Inflation equity so

that one can trade up to a bigger car)

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Yep this is happening. Up here in Edinburgh even the seriously VI estate agents admit it.

What it does mean though is it will be very interesting when the bottom end starts moving again. We will see huge YOY drops. Perhaps 20% plus IMO.

What will happen then ? Probably decide to move to median reporting instead.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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