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Threat Of Double-Dip From China

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Report

"China-watcher and economist Andy Xie talks of vast stretches of newly-built property left unoccupied as rich investors increasingly treat bricks and mortar as a pure asset class, citing a recent story that power companies had detected a staggering 64.5m urban electricity meters registering zero consumption over a recent six-month period."

To put that in perspective that is roughly 3 times as many homes as there are in the whole of England and Wales lying empty or alternatively, a lot of people fiddling their electric meters. If it's the former, a lot of that property must be virtually worthless.

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Mr. Xie has been quoted by Mish several times.

Mish makes the point that there is no market for second-hand homes in China. Only brand new ones. Which are decorated in purest concrete for their $150K average price tag.

People don't get it. Whatever we do, the US does bigger (and therefore worse) and China even bigger. Spending 150K, easily 30 times the average income, on a concrete shell and have it lie empty for its entire useful life is the perfect extrapolation of buying a home you can easily afford and living in it.

Our market might crash 35% overall. The US market has fallen over 40% and may have another 10-20% to go. China's market... have a guess.

Edited by AvidFan

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The China bubble still has another year to 18 months to run I reckon. But when it does burst there'll be mass panic from Peking to Perth (I'm thinking Mad Max reality for OZ). No doubt the Yanks will find someone to have a war with so the sheeple continue munching on their nachos and watching cable around then.

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Hmmmm.

This is all good news, isn't it?

A nice, deceptively spacious property (if you're small with bound feet) . . . front and back gardens laid to rice . . . attractive views over the Yangstze . . 'Royal Doulton' style willow pattern wallpaper throughout . . . .

A 'snip' , surely . . .

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oh and declare your interest ;)

My interest? I'm a non homeowner, same as most on here. Deposit in sterling.

Anything else?

35% is sterling terms is about right for this crash. While we're getting a sterling bounce, I wouldn't rule out another fall next year or in 2012.

With the VAT rise as well, I can see plenty of 4-5% annual inflation that's eating away at the 50-60% falls we should really see and a foreign investor will see in their currency from the sterling and market peak in 2007.

Edited by AvidFan

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  • 146 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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