Double Dip Wont Happen

[Guest_ringledman_*]

Talk of a double dip is wrong when you look at the emperical basis for it.

http://business.financialpost.com/2010/07/09/double-dips-are-rare-and-largely-man-made-capital-economics/

Such events only occur under major central bank tightening. We have a far too loose monetary policy to allow it to happen. There are no Volkers in the central banks at present.

The risk trade will continue for the forseeable future.

No doubt we will face another recession at some point but I would guess 2013-2015 or so. Likewise the total collapse of the system that Faber talks of is probably a decade away.

It will happen but not yet. The uber bears here will have to wait a fair deal longer. Despite our dire position and that of the USA and Europe, the total collapse is some way off and is continuing to be delayed by inflationary central bankers.

Edited August 8, 2010 by ringledman

[Si1]

nice try, or rather not.

house prices continued to fall past the end of the 1991 recession right through to 1995. There may not be a double dip, i agree, but it will still be really really not nice.

[wonderpup]

Talk of a double dip is wrong when you look at the emperical basis for it.

Kind of assumes the recovery was real in the first place, rather than an adrenaline shot to the heart to keep the dead alive. Are we seeing a double dip or just cold turkey?

Edited August 8, 2010 by wonderpup

[Ah-so]

No doubt in much the same way as Japan avoided a 2-decade multiple dip recession by slashing interests to zero!

Double dips may be rare (in the USA), but that does not mean they do not happen and they do not require tightened monetary policy.

[Confounded]

Talk of a double dip is wrong when you look at the emperical basis for it.

Correct, we are in a FIAT depression.

With Western governments understating inflation and consequently under stating the GDP deflater we have been in a depression since 1999.

What GDP would you like? Put me in charge and I could give you an 'official' GDP' of 5% by the middle of next year in the UK, it does not mean standards of living will be increased, the only way to do that is to borrow from the future.

Edited August 8, 2010 by Confounded

[Jack's Creation]

Talk of a double dip is wrong when you look at the emperical basis for it.

http://business.financialpost.com/2010/07/09/double-dips-are-rare-and-largely-man-made-capital-economics/

Such events only occur under major central bank tightening. We have a far too loose monetary policy to allow it to happen. There are no Volkers in the central banks at present.

The risk trade will continue for the forseeable future.

No doubt we will face another recession at some point but I would guess 2013-2015 or so. Likewise the total collapse of the system that Faber talks of is probably a decade away.

It will happen but not yet. The uber bears here will have to wait a fair deal longer. Despite our dire position and that of the USA and Europe, the total collapse is some way off and is continuing to be delayed by inflationary central bankers.

Strip out the Increased govt weighting in the GDP figures (thanks to QE..etc) and you'll see that we never came out of recession.

Growth figures mean squat if can print to make up the shortfall.

[(Blizzard)]

Talk of a double dip is wrong when you look at the emperical basis for it.

http://business.fina...ital-economics/

Such events only occur under major central bank tightening. We have a far too loose monetary policy to allow it to happen. There are no Volkers in the central banks at present.

The risk trade will continue for the forseeable future.

No doubt we will face another recession at some point but I would guess 2013-2015 or so. Likewise the total collapse of the system that Faber talks of is probably a decade away.

It will happen but not yet. The uber bears here will have to wait a fair deal longer. Despite our dire position and that of the USA and Europe, the total collapse is some way off and is continuing to be delayed by inflationary central bankers.

I think the way that all debate can be focused around 'two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth' is an amazing example of groupthink.

Astounding really, that this meaningless technical definition should be regarded as important.

Edited August 8, 2010 by (Blizzard)

[Bloo Loo]

Strip out the Increased govt weighting in the GDP figures (thanks to QE..etc) and you'll see that we never came out of recession.

Growth figures mean squat if can print to make up the shortfall.

this is the crux, and the reason we keep hearing the calls for more stimulus.

it didnt work the first time...well, it kept the FIGURES looking nice, but it didnt change the REALITY.

people....stop focusing on the FIGURES and focus on the REALITY.

[(Blizzard)]

Economic growth is subjective anyway. Now stop thinking, and lets get all those mothers out to work.

[tomwatkins]

Economic growth is subjective anyway. Now stop thinking, and lets get all those mothers out to work.

All women of child bearing age should be banned from working. It would solve the unemployment problem. In fact if you discount them (if the are unemployed) then we have the lowest unemployed rate ever. Sheeez-we are saved. There are lies, damn lies and GDP.

[(Blizzard)]

All women of child bearing age should be banned from working. It would solve the unemployment problem. In fact if you discount them (if the are unemployed) then we have the lowest unemployed rate ever. Sheeez-we are saved. There are lies, damn lies and GDP.

No, you have it all wrong. Every working woman boosts GDP, with absolutely no cost to society at all. None.

And they all do it voluntarily, just like the men. They love to work more than anything else on earth.

Other things that boost GDP include casinos, house price rises and alcohol.

Boost the economy, binge drink for Britain.

Edited August 8, 2010 by (Blizzard)

[shermanator]

Talk of a double dip is wrong when you look at the emperical basis for it.

http://business.financialpost.com/2010/07/09/double-dips-are-rare-and-largely-man-made-capital-economics/

Such events only occur under major central bank tightening. We have a far too loose monetary policy to allow it to happen. There are no Volkers in the central banks at present.

The risk trade will continue for the forseeable future.

No doubt we will face another recession at some point but I would guess 2013-2015 or so. Likewise the total collapse of the system that Faber talks of is probably a decade away.

It will happen but not yet. The uber bears here will have to wait a fair deal longer. Despite our dire position and that of the USA and Europe, the total collapse is some way off and is continuing to be delayed by inflationary central bankers.

Sorry old chap, you've yet to cotton onto the 'new paradigm'........DEFLATION. It doesn't matter how loose or accomodating monetary policy is when IRs are already at rock bottom, just where does one go from there? Oh yes, more QE, which is on the way big time. Funny how money velocity and broad money are decreasing, rather demolishes your fairytale Greenspanesque happy ending. Hmm. things are so good, helicoptor Ben is already laying the groundwork for a potential $5tn bout of stimuli and QE - doesn't strike me as a sign of a healthy economy, does it you?

It's Japan style asset deflation all the way and that spells bad news for estate agents like you (?)

[Fairies Wear Boots]

From the article...

Again, policy makers were the culprits, as the White House tried to reduce the budget deficit through spending cuts and tax hikes.

What are the present government about to do/doing?

We don't need a double dip for some more HPC fun anyway.

[nohpc]

Sorry old chap, you've yet to cotton onto the 'new paradigm'........DEFLATION. It doesn't matter how loose or accomodating monetary policy is when IRs are already at rock bottom, just where does one go from there? Oh yes, more QE, which is on the way big time. Funny how money velocity and broad money are decreasing, rather demolishes your fairytale Greenspanesque happy ending. Hmm. things are so good, helicoptor Ben is already laying the groundwork for a potential $5tn bout of stimuli and QE - doesn't strike me as a sign of a healthy economy, does it you?

It's Japan style asset deflation all the way and that spells bad news for estate agents like you (?)

Japan's assets deflated along with a 90% strengthening of the Yen.

At their stock market and housing market peak 600 yen were required to buy 1 american dollar compared to around 80 now.

So if you were japanese your purchasing power abroad increased 90%.

Sounds like a lovely side effect of deflation to me. Can't see it happening in the UK. Is our currency going to massively appreciate to devalue all assetts?

[interestrateripoff]

The central bank A-Team are on the case, there will be no double dip we have the worlds best economic experts on the case who will stop at nothing to prevent a double dip.

[Guest_ringledman_*]

I think many of you have missed my original post.

The groupthink on here is similar to the way joepublic thinks, i.e. no analysis of the facts or histirical basis, just go with the common held view.

I do not see a double dip in the form of 2 quaters of negative growth, the fact is we fell off a cliff late 08 so falling any further in terms of GDP is unlikely. This doesn't mean things will be rosy especially for the public sector workers but the private sector is looking healthy.

Firms have done what they should during a downturn and cut costs and improved productivity. The private sector lead recovery will continue.

Certain assets will continue to fall, particularly property in real terms, less so nominally due to negative interest rates and inflationist central bankers.

I see a German style property crash (i.e. property falling 10%-15% nominally over the next decade and 50% in real terms).

Bonds and cash will continue to fall in value as the inflationary slow recovery takes hold (i.e. a decade of negative interest rates and low anemic growth).

Edited August 8, 2010 by ringledman

[The Masked Tulip]

Double dip, cream dip, sherbert dip... was out ans about today and all seemed well in my part of the UK.

[Confounded]

I think many of you have missed my original post.

The groupthink on here is similar to the way joepublic thinks, i.e. no analysis of the facts or histirical basis, just go with the common held view.

I do not see a double dip in the form of 2 quaters of negative growth, the fact is we fell off a cliff late 08 so falling any further in terms of GDP is unlikely. This doesn't mean things will be rosy especially for the public sector workers but the private sector is looking healthy.

I think you are missing the point, most people here do not really care what the official number tells us (as per most joe public), we are more worried about what is happening in the real world.

With Western governments understating inflation and consequently under stating the GDP deflater we have been in a depression since 1999.

What GDP would you like? Put me in charge and I could give you an 'official' GDP' of 5% by the middle of next year in the UK, it does not mean standards of living will be increased, the only way to do that is to borrow from the future.

[Guest_ringledman_*]

I think you are missing the point, most people here do not really care what the official number tells us (as per most joe public), we are more worried about what is happening in the real world.

I tend to think of the majority of the posters here as typical of joepublic, i.e. lacking in the ability to undertake any fundamental or empirical analysis.

99% of the posters here are sheeple who go with the view spun by the daily papers of what will happen.

The fact is double dips rarely happen. When they do they occur as a result of fiscal tightening. We have no central bankers with the balls to do this.

The next crises will be a public sector debt crises although this is some 4-10 years away.

Until then the risk trade and negative interest rates will continue.

Equities and Commodities will rise.

Cash and Bonds will fall.

Property will fall (although 80% or so of this fall will be in real terms and not nominally).

This is what is happening and will continue to happen in the real world.

[Guest_ringledman_*]

Interesting article in this weekend's FT Money by David Schwartz.

'Six of the last seven expansions ran for at least 15 quarters - almost 4 years'.

'The single exception occured in the early 1980s. A double-dip recession was triggered by a combination of credit controls, a second oil shock and US interest rate spike'.

I maintain the view of 4-5 years before the next major downturn and around 10-15 before the total collapse of the system due to the US public sector debt meltdown.

Edited August 8, 2010 by ringledman

[Habeas Domus]

That ShadowStats graph is for the USA, I suspect the UK figures may have been fiddled to a similar degree but exactly how much we will never know unless someone produces a UK version of ShadowStats.com

[Si1]

I think many of you have missed my original post.

The groupthink on here is similar to the way joepublic thinks, i.e. no analysis of the facts or histirical basis, just go with the common held view.

I do not see a double dip in the form of 2 quaters of negative growth, the fact is we fell off a cliff late 08 so falling any further in terms of GDP is unlikely. This doesn't mean things will be rosy especially for the public sector workers but the private sector is looking healthy.

Firms have done what they should during a downturn and cut costs and improved productivity. The private sector lead recovery will continue.

Certain assets will continue to fall, particularly property in real terms, less so nominally due to negative interest rates and inflationist central bankers.

I see a German style property crash (i.e. property falling 10%-15% nominally over the next decade and 50% in real terms).

Bonds and cash will continue to fall in value as the inflationary slow recovery takes hold (i.e. a decade of negative interest rates and low anemic growth).

fair play - I think similar to you then