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Realistbear

Pounds Soars On Bet Cameron's Austerity Will Not Impact Economy

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-06/pound-rebounds-approaches-1-60-after-u-s-job-losses-exceed-estimates.html

The pound has risen 5.1 percent in the past month against the dollar as investors bet Prime Minister David Cameron’s plans to cut the budget deficit will preserve the U.K.’s AAA debt rating without impairing the economic recovery.

Will we be able to recover despite massive job losses, falling industrial output* and a widening trade gap (caused, in part, by a high pound and more so due to our 2 main trading partners falling into recession)?

Has the Elephant in the room (4-5TR government deficit) vanished in the eyes of the FOREX traders?

And what if we get a HPC? Odds-on IMO.

I cannot see the Sterling rally lasting much into the 3rd Q. Too many reasons to sell Sterling.

___________________________

* U.K. industrial production, which includes utilities, mining and quarrying and accounts for 17 percent of the economy, declined 0.5 percent in June from the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said today. Economists predicted a 0.1 percent gain.

Edited by Realistbear

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I suspect the £ rose against the dollar as early bears leave the dollar for a safe haven. Nothing to do with Cameroon.

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I suspect the £ rose against the dollar as early bears leave the dollar for a safe haven. Nothing to do with Cameroon.

And the bed of nitorglycerine is a safe haven?

I can see running to the Swissie or perhaps the Canadian $ but to Sterling???? IMO we are the riskiest currency bet of them all as all the fundamentals are negative--its just that it hasn't hit yet.

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And the bed of nitorglycerine is a safe haven?

I can see running to the Swissie or perhaps the Canadian $ but to Sterling???? IMO we are the riskiest currency bet of them all as all the fundamentals are negative--its just that it hasn't hit yet.

they dont put all their eggs in one basket...but they do toss the bad ones out. $ is the bad one this week.

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What recovery?

Exactly.

What has recovered?

We are still down on jobs, manufacturing output, exports, house prices.

The only thing going up are bankster's bonuses.

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Guest Noodle

Exactly.

What has recovered?

We are still down on jobs, manufacturing output, exports, house prices.

The only thing going up are bankster's bonuses.

Isn't everyone (outside of Asia-Pacific)?

Pound took the heaviest falls over the last couple of years, it had to be due a small bounce sometime. May not last. If I remember right, it headed higher for a few months middle of 2008 before crashing badly.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-06/pound-rebounds-approaches-1-60-after-u-s-job-losses-exceed-estimates.html

The pound has risen 5.1 percent in the past month against the dollar as investors bet Prime Minister David Cameron’s plans to cut the budget deficit will preserve the U.K.’s AAA debt rating without impairing the economic recovery.

Will we be able to recover despite massive job losses, falling industrial output* and a widening trade gap (caused, in part, by a high pound and more so due to our 2 main trading partners falling into recession)?

Has the Elephant in the room (4-5TR government deficit) vanished in the eyes of the FOREX traders?

And what if we get a HPC? Odds-on IMO.

I cannot see the Sterling rally lasting much into the 3rd Q. Too many reasons to sell Sterling.

___________________________

* U.K. industrial production, which includes utilities, mining and quarrying and accounts for 17 percent of the economy, declined 0.5 percent in June from the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said today. Economists predicted a 0.1 percent gain.

Sigh.

The pound hasn't risen, the dollar has fallen.

Seeing as they're practically shouting from the rooftops now that they're going to print more dollars, you may have to wait until the next crash and flight to safety for the dollar to head back to 1GBP = 1.35 USD, assuming it happens.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-06/pound-rebounds-approaches-1-60-after-u-s-job-losses-exceed-estimates.html

The pound has risen 5.1 percent in the past month against the dollar as investors bet Prime Minister David Cameron’s plans to cut the budget deficit will preserve the U.K.’s AAA debt rating without impairing the economic recovery.

Will we be able to recover despite massive job losses, falling industrial output* and a widening trade gap (caused, in part, by a high pound and more so due to our 2 main trading partners falling into recession)?

Has the Elephant in the room (4-5TR government deficit) vanished in the eyes of the FOREX traders?

And what if we get a HPC? Odds-on IMO.

I cannot see the Sterling rally lasting much into the 3rd Q. Too many reasons to sell Sterling.

___________________________

* U.K. industrial production, which includes utilities, mining and quarrying and accounts for 17 percent of the economy, declined 0.5 percent in June from the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said today. Economists predicted a 0.1 percent gain.

The pound has risen because the non-stop propaganda spewing out of the UK about all the cuts and job layoffs coming. Of course, reality is completely different.

There has been no recovery as nothing has changed. Unemployment is still rising and the bankers are still thieving the incomes of those on fixed incomes by not paying them interest on their savings. No-one has been let go and the reduction in budgets is just fairy tales - if Camaroon had Pinochios nose it would reach clear across the Thames. The real news is INFLATION is rampant everywhere - as this is their policy. The rise in sterling gives them the cover to backtrack later in the year when sales start to pick due to the other piece of fiction, that is VAT to rise to 20%. Gotta beat the VAT hike!

Pathetic.

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Sigh.

The pound hasn't risen, the dollar has fallen.

Seeing as they're practically shouting from the rooftops now that they're going to print more dollars, you may have to wait until the next crash and flight to safety for the dollar to head back to 1GBP = 1.35 USD, assuming it happens.

well said, it's a spin. Pound is UP only because USD has fallen, simples! ;)

Edited by LittleSteroid

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i think someone ought to point out that the OP is 80% in dollars and is therefore getting his **** kicked :lol::lol::lol:

i've just looked at the dollar index and am pretty shocked TBH to see it just above 80.

there will probably be a minor dollar rally soon - after all nothing goes down in a straight line does it.

Edited by gasket37

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-06/pound-rebounds-approaches-1-60-after-u-s-job-losses-exceed-estimates.html

The pound has risen 5.1 percent in the past month against the dollar as investors bet Prime Minister David Cameron’s plans to cut the budget deficit will preserve the U.K.’s AAA debt rating without impairing the economic recovery.

Will we be able to recover despite massive job losses, falling industrial output* and a widening trade gap (caused, in part, by a high pound and more so due to our 2 main trading partners falling into recession)?

Has the Elephant in the room (4-5TR government deficit) vanished in the eyes of the FOREX traders?

And what if we get a HPC? Odds-on IMO.

I cannot see the Sterling rally lasting much into the 3rd Q. Too many reasons to sell Sterling.

This could well be temporary. The pound has recently looked a better bet than the $ that's all. News here will soon turn as the biggest cuts in peacetime history are set out in more exact detail. When the proper storm comes the bail out will still involve a large move into $ again and then for a while we will have a very high dollar before it could suffer a very sharp fall making recent weakness look like a breather.

I think in the longer term, the Canadian dollar will do better along with Aud Swiss Franc, but not until after it is a settled matter as to whether there will be a market crash - still my bet.

Edited by plummet expert

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Sigh.

The pound hasn't risen, the dollar has fallen.

Seeing as they're practically shouting from the rooftops now that they're going to print more dollars, you may have to wait until the next crash and flight to safety for the dollar to head back to 1GBP = 1.35 USD, assuming it happens.

That's not entirely true - it's well up against the Euro as well.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-06/pound-rebounds-approaches-1-60-after-u-s-job-losses-exceed-estimates.html

The pound has risen 5.1 percent in the past month against the dollar as investors bet Prime Minister David Cameron’s plans to cut the budget deficit will preserve the U.K.’s AAA debt rating without impairing the economic recovery.

Will we be able to recover despite massive job losses, falling industrial output* and a widening trade gap (caused, in part, by a high pound and more so due to our 2 main trading partners falling into recession)?

Has the Elephant in the room (4-5TR government deficit) vanished in the eyes of the FOREX traders?

And what if we get a HPC? Odds-on IMO.

I cannot see the Sterling rally lasting much into the 3rd Q. Too many reasons to sell Sterling.

[Zngland]

The £ soars because the free floating pound can be manipulated to keep the ponzi going

while $,euro get tested.

Hence the market hitmen have us at the bottom of their assasination list.

I'm beginnimg to think our Elite are the shrewdest of the lot. You know a bit

like the blaggers who end up in and backstage at some exclusive event.

Finally .We may have some competent arsxxxles in charge who may keep our

way of life intact. [ a loooong shot i know]

A herculean task ,after the scottish twxt gave us a catapault to fight a globalistic economic war, and

the obligatory teaspoon to bury our economic dead, and to stroke his ego gifted us with a over bloated

unsustainable public sector economy.

Cheers Gordon you can run but you can't hide from your legacy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk19NiK90kw&feature=related

___________________________

* U.K. industrial production, which includes utilities, mining and quarrying and accounts for 17 percent of the economy, declined 0.5 percent in June from the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said today. Economists predicted a 0.1 percent gain.

Edited by Zngland

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might be post-Thatcher reverse-reverse-reverse psychology

(1) typically in capitalist terms you would expect book-balancing to lead, long run, Ayn Rand style, to growth

(2) but no! Keynes said, and this is accepted, that demand-maintenance is important and that austerity therefore has unrecoverable costs that hamper recovery

(3) this is why the pound fell when Thatcher did the same in 1980s

(4) because in the end it (seemed to) worked for Thatcher, this time the markets are thinkng 'I'm clever - it actually worked last time, so I'll invest in the UK'

(5) at least half the benefit that Thatcher got was the cheap pound helping an export recovery

(6) this implies we WON'T get a recovery until the pound falls, and if the pound doesn't fall, we won't get a recovery, so the pound will HAVE to fall

(7) unless, as in point (4) the markets, and that also means exporters working v hard on minimum wages etc in the UK, get so goddamed confident that we recover anyway. this seems hard to believe but so did the economic turnaround under the tories in the 1980s. i think international markets are key so highly dubious.... actually, scrub point (7)

(8) actually, who feckin' knows....

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might be post-Thatcher reverse-reverse-reverse psychology

(1) typically in capitalist terms you would expect book-balancing to lead, long run, Ayn Rand style, to growth

(2) but no! Keynes said, and this is accepted, that demand-maintenance is important and that austerity therefore has unrecoverable costs that hamper recovery

(3) this is why the pound fell when Thatcher did the same in 1980s

(4) because in the end it (seemed to) worked for Thatcher, this time the markets are thinkng 'I'm clever - it actually worked last time, so I'll invest in the UK'

(5) at least half the benefit that Thatcher got was the cheap pound helping an export recovery

(6) this implies we WON'T get a recovery until the pound falls, and if the pound doesn't fall, we won't get a recovery, so the pound will HAVE to fall

(7) unless, as in point (4) the markets, and that also means exporters working v hard on minimum wages etc in the UK, get so goddamed confident that we recover anyway. this seems hard to believe but so did the economic turnaround under the tories in the 1980s. i think international markets are key so highly dubious.... actually, scrub point (7)

(8) actually, who feckin' knows....

My bet on Monday is for the pound to go up, or down or stay the same. I will put my life on that.

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Best get them rates up sharpish if the austerity measures wont dampen demand.

proper re-run of the early 80s

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Sterling is going to need one hell of a push to get through the 1.60 barrier from the looks of it and since those diabolical NFP figures didn't do it them I'm left wondering what will.

If 1.60 is the best the Cameron wonder drugs can buy us given the current state of the Dollar right now then we are in T-rouble.

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Sterling is going to need one hell of a push to get through the 1.60 barrier from the looks of it and since those diabolical NFP figures didn't do it them I'm left wondering what will.

If 1.60 is the best the Cameron wonder drugs can buy us given the current state of the Dollar right now then we are in T-rouble.

I just assumed it was to do with an economy heavily reliant on the banking industry receiving positive news not just from banks based in the UK but banks owned by the UK.

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The austerity measure are going to help the economy not damage it. "Austerity" is terribly misleading as it makes it sound like excessive government spending, over 45% of GDP is a good thing.

Removing wasteful government spending (225m on that database child etc) and giving the money back to the private sector will help the economy grow short and long term.

The government can normally only raise money from taxation and selling Guilts. Excessive spending and taxation seriously damages the economy. Excessive issuing of Guilts drains investment out of corporate bonds, stocks and other investments.

The media in this country are completely unable to put across a balanced view on this. The government has grown far too large and is wasting taxpayers' money left right and centre.

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Long term austerity is the only way we can go, but we'll be kissing goodbye to growth for quite a while as the last lot of growth figures came on the back of stimulus spending and printed money.

Fundamentally with house prices so high we have a nation of suckers pouring money into housing and not the economy, but housing is the economy, right?

The markets are going to wake up before much longer and realise Merv is playing them for a fool with inflation at 5% and the base rate at 0.5%. Who the hell in their right mind is going to hold a currency that doesn't even pay inflation? Nobody, unless it's heading up in value, but at soon as it stops, they'll ditch it in a heartbeat.

Edited by MrFlibble

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i think someone ought to point out that the OP is 80% in dollars and is therefore getting his **** kicked :lol::lol::lol:

i've just looked at the dollar index and am pretty shocked TBH to see it just above 80.

there will probably be a minor dollar rally soon - after all nothing goes down in a straight line does it.

Indeed. I sold UKPounds when I went to work in the US in 1991 for somewhere around 2.05 IIRC (just before George "Georgie-boy" Soros did his number on Sterling). I am still slightly up compared with Friday's close of 1.596 but I would like to be up heavily (1.35).

Market psychology says that the UK is not suffering any after-effects from the Brown years and that the Pound will therefore be as safe as our houses. That will change if we do suffer from Brown's decade of mismanagement.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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