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VacantPossession

Rise, Fall, Slowing And Soft Landing

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I am getting pretty sick and tired of reading headlines like:

"Property increases slow and head for soft landing..." etc etc

sort of headlines.

The FACT is that house prices are FALLING, almost everywhere in the UK. No matter what spin VI's put on it, they ARE falling, without any shadow of a doubt.

yet what do we see almost every day in the media:

"Property rises set for slowdown"

"House prices are rising but less than they were"

"Market Stabilising"

"Soft Landing Ahead"

It's all a load of old cobblers. If I bought a house in 1949 and then used the gain since then as my yardstick I can make it appear that house prices overall have risen by 40000%. But that still doesn't prove that they aren't falling NOW.

The "year on year" values are completely irrelevant in TODAY's Market, except for convincing greedy sellers that they've already made a vast profit and should be grateful to get out while still ahead.

Everytime you hear more VI spin, I implore you to challenge it, whether it is your neighbour, your wife, girlfriend or boyfriend, but especially agents who ALWAYS talk the market up.

It is an undeniable fact. Property is GOING DOWN. Don't let anyone get away with telling you anything different.

VP

(edited to correct typing errors)

Edited by VacantPossession

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I am getting pretty sic and tired of reading headlines like:

"Property increases slow and head for soft landing..." etc etc

sort of headlines.

The FACT is that house prices are FALLING, almost everywhere in the UK. No matter what spin VI's put on it, they ARE falling, without any shadow of a doubt.

yet what do we see almost every day in the media:

"Property rises set for slowdown"

"House prices are rising but less than they were"

"Market Stabilising"

"Soft Landing Ahead"

It's all a load of old cobblers. If I bought a house in 1949 and then used the gain since then as my yardstick I can make it appear that house prices overall have risen by 40000%. But that still doesn't prove that they aren't falling NOW.

The "year on year" values are completely irrelevant in TODAY's Market, except for convincing greedy sellers that they've already made a vast profit and should be grateful to get out while still ahead.

Everytime you hear more VI spin, I implore you to callenge it, whether it is your neighbour, your wife, girlfriend, boyfriend, but especially agents who ALWAYS talk the market up.

It is an undeniable fact. Property is GOING DOWN. Don't let anyone get away with telling you anything different.

VP

Hi,

Yes, it is almost scarey. I can point to dozens of houses around where I live (and I have posted here before examples of 30% falls) that have fallen and yet there is maybe a 0.5% fall in a month and a soft landing touted. Just like 1993, just like 1989. Does anyone else actually find it a bit scary - in a mulder and scully kind of way - that the media reporting seems to be under virtual complete control of vest. interests? I can look at in one way and say to myself that is crazy, conspiracies dont exist like that in the real world, but I can show the evidence of big price falls in my local area that are never really shown because the houses are withdrawn from sale and then reentered to the market a few months later at a lower cost. Never reported as a valuation fall. What the ***** is going on?

I will say, it should not really bother me. I have my home paid for, I also live in Canada for at least six months of the year where I mostly run my business from nowadays - the UK just got way to expensive as a base to operate a business from. However, my daughters want to remain at home, and my advice has been ABSOLUTELY DO NOT BUY NOW. Eventually, like the last crashes, the evidence will become so overwhelming that it will be admitted later on. Too late if you get caught in it by then. Is there something wrong with our society? Why do we always seem to end up in this mess with property every 10 years or so?

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The one that gets me is "we are over the worst - the market has reached a turning point"

They contradict themselves eventually - over the worst? What worst? Did it get bad and nobody noticed?

After all the housing market is underpinned by those 'sound fundamentals' they keep trotting out, so how/why did we reach some low point that needs to be recovered from?

:)

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Saw a report today on Business Lunch that cautioned against this sort of bandwagon-ism.

The rate of increase has fallen - but its still an overall increase.

The facts are that prices will slide over an extended period - we are NOT going to wake up next monday to find a HPC happened on Saturday night while we were all out on the razzle.

This of course makes it difficult for buyers trying to find the bottom - jump too soon you lose out, leave it too long .....ou lose out.

We live in interesting times....;)

Edited by needle

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They contradict themselves eventually - over the worst? What worst? Did it get bad and nobody noticed?

After all the housing market is underpinned by those 'sound fundamentals' they keep trotting out, so how/why did we reach some low point that needs to be recovered from?

:)

:) They contradict themselves eventually - over the worst? What worst? Did it get bad and nobody noticed? :)

:lol: Classic :lol:

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I am getting pretty sick and tired of reading headlines like:

"Property increases slow and head for soft landing..." etc etc

The Halifax in particular seems to have been active in circulating press stories like "coastal boom towns" which appeared in both the national and local press in the last week, as well as spinning the Olympic announcement as well.

But, VP, take heart that there is an increasing amount of bearish press out there - there have been lots of examples that we've seen over the past year which we would never have seen before July 2004.

Remember, this boom went on for nearly 10 years and I think that now the peak has been reached there is a lot more "resistance" that has built up to price falls than there was at the 1989 peak.

Also remember the ripple effect hasn't finished in Scotland and N.I. yet.

I am merely grateful that I can see through the spin and haven't financially crippled myself. If other people do believe the spin and buy now, then that is their problem.

I know of a few people who are considering buying, and I've politely said my piece to them about the housing market. But, at the end of the day, it's their decision to make.

The market will still crash.

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Don't worry, Vacantposession. The meeja is always the last to latch on to a trend - they are extreme lagging indicators. You see this with their coverage of the stock market as well - even earlier this year the BBC's website still have reports like "How falling stock markets affect you".

So when house price falls are reported to be "slowing", you will know that the bottom is in. Confidence will be weak and people will tell you that houses will be worth less next year, etc. I'll take this as the best contrarian indicator of when to buy.

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Prices around me have managed to fall by about 15% since Jul/04 (drops of individual houses) while at the same time average prices, say, on rightmove, appear to have risen (replacement houses asking more!), and then there is the practice of ‘pre-compensating’ for the 5-10% that the buyer will automatically expect to take off, so it’s getting quite difficult to gauge what is actually happening apart from simply following the slightly out of date LR prices … :unsure:

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Hi,

Yes, it is almost scarey. I can point to dozens of houses around  where I live (and I have posted here before examples of 30% falls) that have fallen and yet there is maybe a 0.5% fall in a month and a soft landing touted. Just like 1993, just like 1989. Does anyone else actually find it a bit scary - in a mulder and scully kind of way - that the media reporting seems to be under virtual complete control of vest. interests? I

There is nothing scary about it:

1. The news media are only concerned about what is happeing right NOW not what may happen, also headline colums will be taken by dramatic events of the day.

2.Other colum space/news slots is fed to them largely by PR Officers and publicists - its a back scratching exercise.

3. Most papers make more revenue by advertising than by their sales - It doesn't pay to bite the hand that feeds.

Edited by Who Knows

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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