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U.S. JULY PAYROLLS FALL 131,000; JOBLESS RATE HOLDS AT 9.5%

(no link yet.)

Meanwhile still up at Bloomberg:

Payrolls Report
Today’s Labor Department report is forecast to show non- farm payrolls fell by 65,000 in July, reflecting a drop in federal census workers, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

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U.S. JULY PAYROLLS FALL 131,000; JOBLESS RATE HOLDS AT 9.5%

(no link yet.)

Meanwhile still up at Bloomberg:

Payrolls Report
Today’s Labor Department report is forecast to show non- farm payrolls fell by 65,000 in July, reflecting a drop in federal census workers, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

we need a bigger stimulus

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we need a bigger stimulus

you really should have gone with:-

"A bigger stimulus is like making love to a beautiful woman............you have to softern her up, tempt her with untold riches, and then give it to her hard when she least expects it"

or something

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-06/company-payrolls-rose-by-71-000-in-july-u-s-jobless-rate-9-5-.html

Companies in the U.S. added workers in July for a seventh straight month at a pace that suggests the labor-market recovery will be slow to take hold.

Private payrolls that exclude government agencies rose by 71,000 after a June gain of 31,000 that was smaller than previously reported, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. Economists projected a 90,000 July increase, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Overall employment fell 131,000 and unemployment held at 9.5 percent.

Stock-index futures fell as the report showed an economy that will be slow in recouping the 8.4 million jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007, keeping consumer spending from accelerating. While growth has slowed and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has described the outlook as “unusually uncertain,” financial markets have rebounded: the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index last month climbed the most in a year and commodities rallied.

“To the extent that we have a labor market recovery, it’s a slow one,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, who projected a gain of 70,000 in private payrolls. “I don’t see anything to indicate that the third quarter will be better.”

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U.S. JULY PAYROLLS FALL 131,000; JOBLESS RATE HOLDS AT 9.5%

(no link yet.)

Meanwhile still up at Bloomberg:

Payrolls Report
Today’s Labor Department report is forecast to show non- farm payrolls fell by 65,000 in July, reflecting a drop in federal census workers, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

How can payrolls fall 131k but the jobless rate not move up?

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How can payrolls fall 131k but the jobless rate not move up?

Unemployed who dont register?

Registered unemployment rate in USA is now 9.5% (*) but on the wider measure its over 17% :ph34r: Its a similar story in the UK .

Its a feature of his recession/depression that so many people have just simpy dropped out of the labour force completely. Not too sure where they have gone mind :blink:

(*) i can remember during the early part of the Noughties when the USA used to sneer at "old-europe" for its sky high u/e rate - dont hear too much crowing now :rolleyes:

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Guest sillybear2

How can payrolls fall 131k but the jobless rate not move up?

Because an equal number of "discouraged" workers have dropped off their radar, or they've tweaked their mythical birth & death model. Payroll stats make the inflation figures look legit.

"I'm afraid you're no longer out of work, instead you're just officially dead"

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/06/us-jobs-fall-double-expected

Employers in the US shed twice as many jobs as expected in July, fanning fears that the recovery in the world's largest economy will not see a revival in employment.

The US government said 131,000 jobs were lost overall, compared with forecasts for a 65,000 fall. The drop was mainly due to work finishing for temporary staff hired by the government to conduct its census. But private hiring was also weaker than expected.

Economists polled by Reuters ahead of the non-farm payrolls data forecast that private sector jobs would rise by 90,000, but in the event only 71,000 were added.

At the same time, June's overall drop was revised to a far steeper 221,000 from 125,000.

The data sparked a rally in government bonds, seen as safer investments when the economic picture darkens. Crude oil futures dropped on the prospect of weaker demand from the US market and stock indices also fell, including the FTSE 100 in the UK.

I think the June figures need the Eric treatment.

Still it's only what about an 80% increase on the original estimate. I'm mean it's pretty close isn't it as margin of errors go....

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Guest sillybear2

I think we need more government intervention, how about banning all offshore drilling for 6 months? That'll help!

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How can payrolls fall 131k but the jobless rate not move up?

IIRC the jobless rate is those out of work and claiming benefits.

The entire US could be unemployed and the jobless rate could still be zero, if everyone had exceeded the period during which they can claim benefits.

Basically the US "jobless" figures should read "jobless for less than a year"

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Guest Noodle

Nearly lost my hand to one of those.

Would never had smoked straight again.

See. Blighty doesn't have wildlife induced stress, unless you include particular sub-cultures.

Don't want to tempt fate but I've not had a snake or scorpion in the house for nearly a year now. :ph34r:

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See. Blighty doesn't have wildlife induced stress, unless you include particular sub-cultures.

Don't want to tempt fate but I've not had a snake or scorpion in the house for nearly a year now. :ph34r:

I was referring actually to cheap american horror flicks.

Boredom necessitated frequent trips to the cinema bar. Obviously as inebriation set it - the odds of snagging a vital body part in the swinging doors was greatly increased.

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I was referring actually to cheap american horror flicks.

Boredom necessitated frequent trips to the cinema bar. Obviously as inebriation set it - the odds of snagging a vital body part in the swinging doors was greatly increased.

it must be well past your bedtime....

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http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/jobs-decrease-by-131000-rise-by-12000.html

This morning the BLS reported a decrease of 131,000 jobs. However, that reflects a decrease of 143,000 temporary census workers.

Excluding the census effect, government lost 59,000 jobs. Were the trend to continue, this would be a good thing because Firing Public Union Workers Creates Jobs.

Unfortunately, politicians and Keynesian clown economists will not see it that way. Indeed there is a $26 billion bill giving money to the states to keep bureaucrats employed. This is unfortunate because we need to shed government jobs.

Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box - Birth Death Model added 6,000 jobs. This is one of the saner birth/death revisions in recent months. However, January and July always are.

The civilian labor force participation rate (64.6 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.4 percent) were essentially unchanged in July; however, these measures have declined by 0.6 percentage point and 0.4 point, respectively, since April.

The drop in participation rate this year is the only reason the unemployment rate is not over 10%. The drop in participation rates is not that surprising because some of the long-term unemployed stopped looking jobs, or opted for retirement.

Nonetheless, I still do not think the top in the unemployment rate is in and expect it may rise substantially later this year as the recovery heads into a coma and states are forced to cut back workers unless Congress does substantially more to support states.

Employment and Recessions

Calculated risk has a great chart showing the effects of census hiring as well as the extremely weak hiring in this recovery.

CR+-+Job+Losses+2010-07.png

The dotted lines tell the real story about how pathetic a jobs recovery this has been. Bear in mind it has taken $trillions in stimulus to produce this.

May, June Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +433,000 to +432,000, and the change for June was revised from -125,000 to -221,000.

July 2010 Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July 2010 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Federal government employment fell, as 143,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 71,000.

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment+Rate-2010-07.png

Highlights

* 131,000 jobs were lost

* 11,000 construction jobs were lost

* 36,000 manufacturing jobs were added

* 38,000 service providing jobs were added

* 6,700 retail trade jobs were added

* 13,000 professional and business services jobs were lost

* 30,000 education and health services jobs were added

* 6,000 leisure and hospitality jobs were added

* 202,000 government jobs were lost. Of them, 143,000 were temporary census workers

Note: some of the above categories overlap as shown in the preceding chart, so do not attempt to total them up.

........

Grim Statistics

The official unemployment rate is 9.5%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

It reflects how unemployment feels to the average Joe on the street. U-6 is 16.5%.

Looking ahead, there is no driver for jobs. Moreover, states are in forced cutback mode on account of shrinking revenues and unfunded pension obligations. Shrinking government jobs and benefits at the state and local level is a much needed adjustment. Those cutbacks will weigh on employment and consumer spending for quite some time.

Expect to see structurally high unemployment for years to come.

Keep in mind that huge cuts in public sector jobs and benefits at the city, county, and state level are on the way. These are badly needed adjustments. However, economists will not see it that way, nor will the politicians.

There's more analysis from Mish at the link.

The top chart from calculated risk just shows how bad this recession is, and the US appears to be flat lining.

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Weird thing is that its not all jobs and sectors. I got another job offer interview from the US today. Seem to get one a week. Some skills are still in demand it seems, I'm not even a senior manager before anyone asks, so I thought my skillset wasn't incredibly rare. I was expecting the whole market to have dried up. Not the case yet.

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  • 142 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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