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Halifax Hpi July 2010 0.6%

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Yep. Looks like stagnation for now.

Key facts

 

• House prices increased by 0.6% in July.  This modest rise offset the 0.6% fall in June.

 

• House prices in July were 4.9% higher on an annual basis as measured by the average for the latest three months against the same period a year earlier. This was below the 6.3% increase in June and compares with a recent high of 6.9% in May.

 

• Prices in July were marginally (0.8%) lower than at the end of 2009 but are 8.3% above their April 2009 trough. The average house price is now £167,425; 16% below its August 2007 peak.

 

• Housing market activity broadly stable.  Bank of England industry-wide figures show that the number of mortgages approved to finance house purchase in the three months to June – a leading indicator of completed house sales – were modestly (2%) higher than in the previous quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Activity remains significantly lower than a few years ago with approvals 56% lower in 2010 Quarter 2 compared with 2007 Quarter 2.  

 

 

 

• Low mortgage rates have reduced the burden of servicing mortgage debt. Nationally, typical mortgage payments for a new borrower have fallen from a peak of 48% of average disposable earnings in 2007 Quarter 3 to 30% in 2010 Quarter 2.  This key measure of affordability is at a more favourable level than the long-term average over the past 25 years (37%) and is a key factor supporting housing demand.

 

• In separate research to be released later this week, Halifax has found that the total value of privately owned housing stock in the UK more than doubled over the past decade. There was a 118% increase from £1,719 billion in 1999 to an estimated £3,755 billion in 2009. During the same period, the retail price index rose by 29%. However, since 2007 the value of housing stock in the UK has declined by 8%. This reflects the reduction in house prices between mid 2007 and early 2009. The improvement in house prices in 2009 saw housing value grow by an estimated 2% during the year.

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:

"House prices increased by 0.6% in July, reversing the fall in June.  Overall, there has been little change in prices during 2010 so far.  The mixed pattern of monthly rises and falls over the first seven months of the year is consistent with a slowing market.  It is also in line with our view that house prices will be broadly unchanged over 2010 as a whole.

The increase in the number of properties for sale over the past few months, boosted by the recent abolition of HIPs, has relieved much of the pressure that was driving up prices in 2009. Low interest rates and a recovering economy, however, are underpinning demand and continue to support the market."

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Low mortgage rates have reduced the burden of servicing mortgage debt. Nationally, typical mortgage payments for a new borrower have fallen from a peak of 48% of average disposable earnings in 2007 Quarter 3 to 30% in 2010 Quarter 2. This key measure of affordability is at a more favourable level than the long-term average over the past 25 years (37%) and is a key factor supporting housing demand.

There you have it, never been a cheaper time to buy...

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Very dissapointing.

Any momentum that was building up is now gone. Nothing is going to be reduced now. We need 6 months of falls , which we might get from now till christmas but the inevitbale has just been pushed back another 3 months down the line.

People will see these results and further enforce the view that their house is actually worth what they have it for sale at.

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There you have it, never been a cheaper time to buy...

This should give more ammunition to the MPC to start raising rates slowly. There has been a raft of solid data recently, if they want to control HPI rates need to rise to give buyers a reality check. I am convinced house prices will fall in real terms over the next 5 years + as interest rates rise back to normal levels.

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Very dissapointing.

Any momentum that was building up is now gone. Nothing is going to be reduced now. We need 6 months of falls , which we might get from now till christmas but the inevitbale has just been pushed back another 3 months down the line.

People will see these results and further enforce the view that their house is actually worth what they have it for sale at.

Unless they want to sell it.

In which case they will have to join the 35% of properties reducing their price.

Had a look on home and rightmove and things are very slowly coming down in price. A few that have fallen through have come back on with lower asking prices.

There is no reason out there for huge monthly price drops. we wont see them without another banking crisis. We will just see a gradual slide.

If your waiting to buy its probably more about finding that hard up seller who's chain has just fallen through and offering a good price rather than waiting for property as a whole to fall. You do know that 5 bedder with drive and double garage wont ever be £120k again dont you.??

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Very dissapointing - I'm watching these indexes very closely now as for the first time since I joined this site, I am seriously looking to buy.

Small sample size or not, how can anyone in the right mind be paying more for houses than they did this time last month?

There's been austerity / financial crash / double dip plastered all over the news and these muppets don't even have the nouse to negotiate a few measly percentage points off!

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Very dissapointing.

Any momentum that was building up is now gone. Nothing is going to be reduced now. We need 6 months of falls , which we might get from now till christmas but the inevitbale has just been pushed back another 3 months down the line.

People will see these results and further enforce the view that their house is actually worth what they have it for sale at.

Nicely summed up.

The more I see of the UK the more I believe it is full of masochists who would rather spend the majority of their earnings on a pile of bricks than on enjoying themselves. It is the same greedy people pricing out their own children and then complaining about having to do the BoM&D thing. Meanwhile the government and central bank do all they can to prop the whole lousy game up.

Starting to believe it is time to give up on the hpc and move on. When I say move on I mean leave the UK and never come back.

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People will see these results and further enforce the view that their house is actually worth what they have it for sale at.

It must be very confusing to be a seller right now. On the one hand transaction volumes are abysmal, more and more houses are celebrating their one year anniversary of coming to market, 'sales' are falling through due to lack of finance and estate agents all over the country are being flooded with new stock. On the other hand the media and house price indexes are telling them that the worse case scenario is stagnation this year followed by a return to "normal" HPI of 5% plus in the next couple of years.

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Very dissapointing - I'm watching these indexes very closely now as for the first time since I joined this site, I am seriously looking to buy.

Small sample size or not, how can anyone in the right mind be paying more for houses than they did this time last month?

There's been austerity / financial crash / double dip plastered all over the news and these muppets don't even have the nouse to negotiate a few measly percentage points off!

I was closely watching one of my target houses a few months ago to see what the actual sold price was when it hit the Land Registry. To my surprise the sold price was the initial asking price as listed on RightMove. Not even a token couple of grand negotiated off the price. I cannot compete with people like this :angry:

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It must be very confusing to be a seller right now. On the one hand transaction volumes are abysmal, more and more houses are celebrating their one year anniversary of coming to market, 'sales' are falling through due to lack of finance and estate agents all over the country are being flooded with new stock. On the other hand the media and house price indexes are telling them that the worse case scenario is stagnation this year followed by a return to "normal" HPI of 5% plus in the next couple of years.

no more confusinfg than it is for a buyer id imagine, markets , if they were simple things wed all be squillionnaires, they look obvious in hindsight but are a nightmare of snakes and ladders as they happen, that throw out true and false signals at every step of the way to make someone reading them get on the wrong side. Its part of their magic and what makes them so interesting to study and work with

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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Yup.

Halifax and Nationwide will take it in turns to throw a curved ball every few months, as they did before ;).

If you are applying that sort of logic you would be the sort of person that would claim that the very early signs of price rise recorded by each of the surveys in late 08 and then followed up by more consistent rises in early 09, where there was no sign of the market turning, were actually used to encourage people back into the market. ;)

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This bubble is not going to burst at any where near the speed you would like it to.

The strategy is to let the air out, slowly and in a controlled a way as possible. Allowing the indebted to unwind their positions and allowing banks to recapitalise.

Cue Bruce Banner jumping down my throat, one day I will make it on his sig..........one day.

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Yup.

Halifax and Nationwide will take it in turns to throw a curved ball every few months, as they did before ;).

Precisley, just like the previous housing corrections..........loooonnnngggg sllloooowww reeeeeeeaaaaaalllllllll corrections. Just because this bubble was bigger just mean the correction will take looooooooonnnnnnnggggggggeeeeeeeerrrrrrr.

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This bubble is not going to burst at any where near the speed you would like it to.

The strategy is to let the air out, slowly and in a controlled a way as possible. Allowing the indebted to unwind their positions and allowing banks to recapitalise.

Cue Bruce Banner jumping down my throat, one day I will make it on his sig..........one day.

I don't want it to burst , i'd just like to see it deflate.

Looking at the results from Lloyds TSB this morning and seeing that they leant £15bn in the form of new mortgages it seems that many people think that house prices are fair value.

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Not -4% then?

A blip as has been said.

Never fear people can switch to the Realist Bear Index which shows 50% month on month falls on a bespoke selection of properties that may or may not be taken from somewhere or another,

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We shouldn't forget that during the 1990s house price crash that even during the years with the biggest falls the summer months usually recorded MoM rises. What is amazing this year is the number of summer months that have recorded a MoM fall in prices - in the context of the Base Rate being at a 316 year low.

If we are to have MoM rise the beginning of August is probably the best time for the news to come out - the month that is traditionally the quietest month of the year for the property market with large swathes of the population on holiday taking very little notice of the news, or if read/seen is quickly forgotten as the wine and beer goes down. Have to wait and see what August and September bring us.

Meanwhile the VI's are going all out to try and push sentiment positive via the discourse environment in the media who report their 'press releases' without any critique or analysis. We should be doing the same (to influence sentiment to be negative about house prices) via Readers Comments on newspaper, etc. websites. We should be providing the critique and analysis that the media fail to provide.

Edited by Alfie Moon

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Precisley, just like the previous housing corrections..........loooonnnngggg sllloooowww reeeeeeeaaaaaalllllllll corrections. Just because this bubble was bigger just mean the correction will take looooooooonnnnnnnggggggggeeeeeeeerrrrrrr.

Exactly, it will be a slow fall over the next few years.

By the way, I fully expected a positive figure from Halifax... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=148341&view=findpost&p=2647364

No way will they allow a clean sweep of negative indices!

I predict +0.5% ;).

As I've said many times before, I expect prices to fall by 30% to 40% over the next few years. In the mean time, I'm happy renting ;).

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I would go with a 1990s slow house price crash whilst the Base Rate remains at its 316 year low but as soon as it starts climbing back up to its long term trend level of 6% I would expect the pace of the crash to speed up considerably, and possibly very considerably.

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This +0.6% just goes some way to bringing the previous Halifax falls in line with the Nationwide, where the falls are only just starting.

Nationwide:

Jan 2010: £163,481

Jul 2010: £169,347 (+3.6% in 5 months)

Halifax:

Jan 2010: £169,777

Jul 2010: £167,425 (-1.4% in 5 months)

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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